Western Conference tiers, with a legit OKC challenger. Plus: Bucks had to risk waiving Lillard

The Lakers agreed to sign the No. 1 pick from the 2018 draft this week. That sounds good as a description, right? I tell you he averages roughly 16 points, 10 rebounds and one block for his career while shooting 59 percent from the field and 75 percent from the free-throw line. Not bad, right?

But then I tell you it’s Deandre Ayton, and you might wince a little if you’ve followed him closely. Or if you read Jason Quick’s story after the Blazers decided it was better to buy out the last year of his contract than keep him around until they could trade him.

Ayton isn’t bad. He’s brimming with talent and capability. That’s the frustrating part. JJ Redick, an incredibly fiery and seemingly impatient coach, will truly be tested by the 26-year-old’s aloofness.

He is a massive upgrade over Jaxson Hayes (they brought him back as a backup). But Ayton doesn’t outright solve Los Angeles’ big man issues unless he takes things far more seriously. As the Lakers continue to toe the line between trying to compete now and in the future, their recent nemesis, the Nuggets, have done what it actually takes to become contenders again.

If we rewound to Game 78 of the regular season and a genie asked then-employed Nuggets coach Michael Malone what he’d like to change, it would have probably looked like this:

Proper backup center to help the non-Nikola Jokić minutes.
A more reliable starter than the inconsistent effort of Michael Porter Jr.
A real, veteran shooter off the bench.
Bring back someone like Bruce Brown from that championship team.

It feels like the genie granted those wishes:

Trading for Jonas Valanciunas (although he may try to play in Europe).
Moved Porter for Cam Johnson.
Signed Tim Hardaway Jr. to a veteran minimum deal.
Signed Bruce Brown to a veteran minimum deal.

In the blink of an eye, the Nuggets went from having no depth to having a lot. Even if Valanciunas leaves for Europe, they can still grab a decent backup center on the free-agent market. But having these other holes plugged in their roster will make it less pressing. The genie essentially granted Malone’s wishes, but he is still fired. David Adelman gets to use this.

They aren’t the sexy headlines like what the Lakers have spun so far, but these moves have thrown the Nuggets back into the class of a title contender. And the rest of the West should be scared. Even the champion Thunder. In fact, let’s run through some current tiers in the West.

Tier 1: Championship contendersThunder 🏆, NuggetsThe Nuggets took OKC to seven games despite not really being very good. Now they have reliable depth. Plus, Aaron Gordon’s hamstring should be fine. Two true titans now.

Tier 2: Worthy challengersRockets, TimberwolvesMinnesota has made the conference finals two straight years. Losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker is tough, but they have some young players to fill the rotation. Continuity matters. Houston acquiring Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela has the Rockets on the verge of jumping into contender status.

Tier 3: I can see the vision, if all breaks wellWarriors, ClippersBoth of these teams have to be really lucky with extended injuries. Enduring a long season is tough, but being healthy in the postseason would make them a nightmare opponent.

Tier 4: You’re good but missing somethingLakers, Mavericks, Grizzlies, SpursThe Lakers losing Finney-Smith hurts their defense quite a bit. Dallas is missing Kyrie Irving to start the season, and we don’t know how he’ll return from the ACL injury this year. I like what Memphis has done, but they have a very young core. The Spurs probably need a year of jelling.

Tier 5: Let’s hope for the bestSuns, Kings, Pelicans, BlazersPortland is kind of here by default, but I like the way they’re building. The rest of these teams? They’re either falling apart or putting players together haphazardly.

Tier 6: Tanks a millionUtah JazzPlease just don’t make it look as bad as last year. Or give Jazz fans a massive discount on tickets at some point. 

People have been openly questioning why the Bucks would make such a potentially reckless financial decision with the Damian Lillard and Myles Turner situations. They signed the 29-year-old Turner away from the Pacers for $107 million over four years. In order to fit that under the cap, the Bucks had to waive Lillard, nearly 35, and stretch the remaining $113 million that was supposed to be paid out over the next two seasons (if he picked up his player option).

Why does it mean to stretch that money? Instead of paying the 113M over the next two years, they now have a cap hit of $22.5 million each season for the next five years. It gave them enough flexibility to sign Turner (after trading Pat Connaughton and doing some minor housekeeping with the roster). The backlash to this deal is pretty simple: It handcuffs them long-term with this repeated dead money over the next five years.

In reality, the roughly $27 million annually they’re paying out to Turner is actually $49 million because you have to factor in the dead cap they needed to create in order to sign him. And Turner is not worth that money. At the same time, the Bucks needed to do something to take a swing at this Eastern Conference.

For more than a month, we’ve been talking about how open the East will be next season. The injuries to Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton and Lillard dictate that much. The Bucks decided eating up 15 percent of the cap without Lillard instead of one-third of their cap with him was better. When you have Giannis Antetokounmpo, there are two lines of thinking for the Bucks in making this move.

We need to keep him happy and wanting to stay here. 
We think he can win a playoff series against anybody. 

Both of those may be foolish. Giannis turns 31 in December, and he’s still a top-three player in the world. He can still be a battering ram that punishes opponents all game and series long. But as we saw against Indiana, he needs help.

Is Turner the right level of help? Yes and no. Turner replacing Brook Lopez (off to the Clippers) is not as reliable on offense, but he’s far more versatile defensively. The Bucks no longer have to sit in drop coverage at all times when defending the pick-and-roll. He can stretch the floor with his shooting, but he’s not as reliable as a scorer. He’s kind of all over the place.

The Bucks are still praying Kevin Porter Jr. makes a big leap as a playmaker. They’re hoping Kyle Kuzma isn’t terrible in their uniform. They’re hoping the bevy of solid role players goes up a level in production. That way they can compete against anybody in an open East.

They have to be realistic about their place in the conference. Milwaukee is definitely behind Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Detroit and a healthy Philadelphia (trust me, I know). They’re in this mix with a broken Boston, whatever Atlanta has become and a broken Indiana. That’s not totally promising, but it’s not totally dire either. This was a financial risk, but they’re still trying to convince Giannis to want to stay.

Life will suck if he ends up requesting a trade and they move him. With or without that dead cap money. At least they can take a stab at finding something with him for this one year and then see what happens.