Arizona’s perfect record will be tested by the Big 12 gauntlet over the next four weeks. But for now, there remains no doubt: The Wildcats (20-0, 7-0 Big 12) are far and away the No. 1 team in the country.
The Wildcats were the unanimous No. 1 choice in the Associated Press Top 25 for the second consecutive week, and have held the top spot since Dec. 8. Arizona had no problems this past week in wins over Cincinnati (77-51) and West Virginia (88-53).
Starting Monday, though, the Wildcats will play five of their next seven games — and seven of the next 10 — against teams ranked in the top 20 of Monday’s poll. Arizona travels to play No. 13 BYU (17-2, 5-1) on Monday. Between now and March 2, the Wildcats play the Cougars and No. 14 Kansas twice, host No. 8 Iowa State and No. 11 Texas Tech, and visit No. 10 Houston.
No. 2 Connecticut, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Duke and No. 5 Nebraska formed the rest of the top five. For the Cornhuskers (20-0, 9-0 Big Ten), it’s their highest ranking in program history — and sets up a top-five matchup at Michigan (18-1, 8-1) on Tuesday.
Arizona and Nebraska are two of only three undefeated teams left in the country. The other, mid-major Miami (Ohio) (20-0, 8-0 MAC), moved up one spot to No. 24.
North Carolina (16-4, 4-3 ACC) was the biggest climber, rising six spots to No. 16 after winning at No. 17 Virginia on Saturday. Purdue (17-3, 7-2 Big Ten), which lost games to UCLA and Illinois, was the biggest faller, dropping from No. 4 to No. 12.
Here’s the full poll, along with the ballot of The Athletic’s C.J. Moore:
AP men’s Top 25: Jan. 26
Rank
Team
Record
Prev
CJ’s vote
1
20-0
1
1
2
19-1
2
3
3
18-1
3
2
4
18-1
5
5
5
20-0
7
4
6
21-1
8
11
7
18-2
10
7
8
18-2
9
9
9
17-3
11
6
10
17-2
6
8
11
16-4
12
12
12
17-3
4
10
13
17-2
13
13
14
15-5
19
15
15
15-5
20
18
16
16-4
22
20
17
16-3
14
16
18
17-3
15
14
19
14-6
16
17
20
14-5
23
21
21
19-1
24
19
22
17-4
18
22
23
13-6
17
24
24
20-0
25
NR
25
15-5
NR
25
NR
13-6
NR
23
Others receiving votes: Tennessee 88, Kentucky 51, Georgia 49, Iowa 30, Texas A&M 27, Auburn 15, NC State 8, SMU 4, Saint Mary’s 3, Utah State 2, Villanova 2, Wisconsin 1
Illinois’ midseason climb
The Illini made the biggest leap in my rankings this week — from No. 11 to No. 6. That’s because there are two Illini this year — pre-Keaton Wagler playing point guard and post-Keaton Wagler playing point guard. Wagler made the move after Illinois lost to UConn to fall to 6-2. Since then, the Illini are 11-1, and using Bart Torvik’s sorting tool, are the fifth-best team in college basketball during that stretch, with by far the best offense. Not sure what was more impressive on Saturday, Wagler scoring the most points (46) ever for an opponent at Mackey, or Illinois winning that game without senior guard Kylan Boswell.
Why I moved Gonzaga down
I dropped Gonzaga this week from No. 8 to No. 11 despite the Zags not losing a game in that stretch. Gonzaga is currently playing without starting bigs Graham Ike (ankle injury) and Braden Huff (knee injury). Huff is expected to be out until March, and while Gonzaga deserves credit for winning all four games without him, that likely would not happen if Gonzaga were playing in a high-major league. Typically, I don’t like to penalize the Zags for that, but they’ve dropped to ninth at KenPom, 12th at Torvik and have an average resume ranking of 11th between the KPI, strength of record and wins above bubble, all metrics the tournament selection committee considers. Of the teams I ranked above Gonzaga, Houston is the only one with a lower average resume ranking (just barely at 11.7), and Houston ranks higher in the predictive metrics.
Why I haven’t ranked Miami (Ohio)
I love the Miami (Ohio) story. Great to see coach Travis Steele, formerly of Xavier, doing well. It’s a fun team that plays fast, scores a bunch of points and has found a way to win three times in overtime this season. It means a lot to a program like that to be ranked. I’m not mad at anyone who wants to rank them. You can vote however you want to vote, but I do disagree with a vote for the RedHawks for a few reasons. According to KenPom, they rank 332nd in strength of schedule and have only played one top-100 team (Akron) all season. Three of their wins are against non-Division I opponents. It’s not likely their fault. High-major teams are hesitant to play good mid-majors, and this could have been the issue for Steele. But if you play weaker competition, there’s data to show whether you’re still a team worthy of being ranked at predictive sites like KenPom, which use a team’s efficiency margin and adjusts the number based on competition.
Miami (Ohio) is 86th at KenPom, and if you just took its efficiency rankings without adjusting for schedule, the RedHawks rank 20th in offensive efficiency and 88th for defensive efficiency. I am ranking Saint Louis, because the one-loss Billikens, who also haven’t played a great schedule (233rd in SOS), rank fifth in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. They are dominating their opponents.
So it’s not that I hate mid-majors. Four times last year, I listed UC San Diego as “keeping an eye on,” and similarly to SLU, UC San Diego ranked 21st in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Unless Miami (Ohio) starts putting up similar numbers, I cannot justify ranking it.
