After a 2-0 week in Orlando, BYU returns to Utah to face Cal Baptist in the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The game tips off at 7pm MT on ESPN+.
Cal Baptist is a sneaky good team and took their first loss of the season Monday to Colorado after a 7-0 start. NET rankings will fluctuate as we get deeper in the season, but as of today they are a Quad 2 game for BYU.
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BYU and Cal Baptist by the Numbers
Cal Baptist KenPom: 129
NET ranking: 72
Record: 7-1
Best Wins: UC Irvine (A), Oregon State (A)
Loss: at Colorado, 78-70
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU KenPom: 12
NET Ranking: 12
Record: 6-1
AP Ranking: 9
KenPom Prediction: BYU 84, Cal Baptist 66 — BYU 95% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -20.5
Point Total: 151.5
Cal Baptist Overview
Cal Baptist was tabbed as the preseason favorite to win the WAC and have the unanimous Preseason WAC Player of the year in guard Dominique Daniels. The Lancers nearly pulled the upset over Colorado Monday night to move to 8-0, but the Buffs went on a run late to get the win at home.
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Cal Baptist is solid defensively and emphasizes taking away and guarding the three ball. Opponents are shooting 27% from three (23rd nationally)and 34% of their opponents field goal attempts are from distance (top 50 lowest rate) . Cal Baptist also doesn’t allow many assists.
Offensively, Cal Baptist’s shooting numbers are all below average and their three-point attempt rate is one of the lowest nationally. Many of their points have come in the paint and off offensive rebounds with their big front court.
Players to Watch
Dominique Daniels, Guard — Daniels is one of the most underrated guards in college basketball. The 5-foot-10 senior is in the midst of his third straight season averaging 19 points. He tied a season-high Monday night at Colorado when he scored 25. He’s similar to Dayton’s diminutive guard Javon Bennett, who lit up BYU in the first half and scored 22 points. Daniels is a high volume shooter and isn’t always efficient, but when he gets hot he can quickly put up points.
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Martel Williams, Guard — Daniels backcourt mate is second on the team in scoring at 15.5 ppg and shoots 41% from three.
Devon Malcom, Guard/Wing — Malcolm is a good defensive guard who will likely get the main assignment on either AJ or Richie. He averages 2 steals per game.
Thomas Ndong, Forward/Center — Ndong is the team’s starting five man at 6-foot-10 and leads the team with 6.8 rebounds.
Bradley Henige, Center — A 7-footer who comes off the bench. Henige is top 15 nationally in offensive rebound percentage.
Prediction
BYU is a big favorite over the Lancers. Cal Baptist played Colorado tough on the road, and they will start the game off with belief that they can pull the upset. If BYU comes out flat again in the first half then Cal Baptist will absolutely be competitive.
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In the end, BYU just has better players. While Cal Baptist likes to take away the three, they can be susceptible to drives at the rim since they prioritize staying with shooters rather than coming over to help. That should create driving lanes for both AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright.
I’ll pick BYU to win fairly comfortably but Cal Baptist to cover.
Prediction: BYU 82, Cal Baptist 65
