College basketball top 25 after NBA Draft deadline: Illinois or Florida at No. 1?

The NBA withdrawal deadline was Wednesday, and that means college basketball rosters are now mostly set and it’s time to provide a much clearer preseason Top 25 than the crapshoot that is the way-too-early ranking that immediately follows the national championship game.

What follows will likely look similar to the preseason rankings I submit in the fall, although there are still some things up in the air that could influence the rankings. Such as…

Where will Milan Momcilovic, the biggest portal prize left, play next season? What happens with Aden Holloway? Alabama is probably a Top 25 team with him, but Holloway was arrested in mid-March on drug charges and is awaiting trial. Will new LSU coach Will Wade be able to get everyone he has committed eligible? I have my doubts. There could also be more international prospects headed over to college hoops. Where will they end up? Will some of the imports already committed end up ineligible? With the NCAA’s age-based eligibility model likely to be adopted, will JT Toppin decide to return to the court for Texas Tech midway through the season instead of sitting out to recover from his torn ACL? Right now, the Red Raiders are a big man away from joining these rankings.

But otherwise, these rosters are mostly set. So let’s preview the 2026-27 season. Here’s my slightly-too-early Top 25.

Transfer rankings are from The Athletic’s top 100; rankings for the 2026 freshman class are via 247Sports.com.

1. Illinois

Starters: Stefan Vaaks (No. 11 transfer, 6-7 CG), Jake Davis, Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Tomislav IvisicOther notable returners: Zvonimir IvisicNewcomers: Quentin Coleman (No. 13 freshman, 6-4 SG), Lucas Morillo (No. 52 freshman, 6-7 SG), Zavier Zens (No. 52 freshman, 6-7 SG), Ethan Brown (No. 170 freshman, 6-4 CG), Landon Davis (No. 150 freshman, 6-8 PF)

Here’s my logic for going against consensus by slotting Illinois over Florida: The Illini finished one spot ahead of the Gators in the KenPom rankings, made the Final Four out of the same region and return four players who started at least 21 games on a historically efficient offense. Illinois has to replace a lottery pick, while Florida just has to replace guard Xaivian Lee; that’s a point in Florida’s favor. But I’d argue that Illinois has upgraded its bench and found the perfect Keaton Wagler replacement in Stefan Vaaks.

The Illini have the nation’s best backup big in Zvonimir Ivisic and need to hit on just one or two of their four freshman guards to round out the rotation. A reason for believing the bench could be improved is the addition of Quentin Coleman, who recently moved from No. 34 in his class to 13th, landing in five-star territory.

This will be another year together for a lovable core that had to gain confidence from its tourney run. Losing Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous will be a hit to the defense, and my biggest question is team speed, particularly on the perimeter, but this offense should be awesome again, and David Mirkovic is about to become a star. If Vaaks or Coleman end up looking like an NBA prospect, the ceiling is higher than a year ago because of the continuity in Champaign.

2. Florida

Starters: Boogie Fland, Denzel Aberdeen (unranked transfer, 6-5 CG), Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben ChinyeluOther notable returners: Urban Klavzar, Isaiah Brown, CJ Ingram, Alex LloydNewcomers: Jones Lay (unranked freshman, 7-0 C), Arturas Butajevas (international, 6-9 C), Domen Petrovic (international, 6-9 PF)

Over the last 10 seasons, just two No. 1 seeds have returned four starters the next season (a third team, 2020-21 Baylor, would have been coming off a No. 1 seed had the 2020 tourney happened). Both those teams repeated as a No. 1 seed and made the national championship game.

The bar is high for these Gators. Had Kentucky not outbid Florida for Denzel Aberdeen a year ago, it could be five starters returning. If Aberdeen, who needs a waiver for a fifth season, is eligible, then Florida has arguably upgraded at that position from Xaivian Lee.

I am skeptical Aberdeen is granted a fifth year of eligibility by the NCAA, and that was another point for the Illini when comparing the two teams. But if Aberdeen isn’t eligible and Urban Klavzar joins the returning four starters, that lineup combo was dominant in a small sample size last year, outscoring opponents by 64 points in 89 possessions on the floor together, per CBB Analytics. Similar to last season, 3-point shooting remains a concern, but this is the most foolproof roster in the country. We know the Gators are going to play elite defense and dominate the glass and the paint, and history is on their side when it comes to continuity.

3. Duke

Starters: Caleb Foster, John Blackwell (No. 3 transfer, 6-4 CG), Dame Sarr, Cameron Williams (No. 4 freshman, 6-11 PF), Patrick NgongbaOther notable returners: Cayden BoozerNewcomers: Deron Rippey Jr. (No. 11 freshman, 6-2 PG), Drew Scharnowski (No. 69 transfer, 6-9 PF), Bryson Howard (No. 21 freshman, 6-4 SF), Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje (international, 7-0 C), Maxime Meyer (No. 93 freshman, 7-1 C), Jacob Theodosiou (unranked transfer, 6-4 PG)

Bart Torvik predicts Duke will have the best offense and defense in the country. The talent and depth is certainly impressive. The big change will be not having a star power forward to play through. Duke’s leading scorer for six straight seasons has been its power forward, from Matthew Hurt to Paolo Banchero to Kyle Filipowski (for two years) to Cooper Flagg to Cameron Boozer. Cameron Williams is viewed as one of the top players in his class, but he is not expected to be a guy who carries the offense.

The good news for Duke is it has a proven college star in Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell and a big likely capable of taking on a more central role in Patrick Ngongba. And if Williams isn’t quite ready to be a starter-level player, Duke has a very good backup plan at power forward in Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski. Defensively, Scheyer once again has elite positional size. If he can make the offense click without that foundational high-usage power forward, then Duke should once again be one of the best teams in the country.

4. Arizona

Starters: JJ Mandaquit (No. 94 transfer, 6-1 PG), Derek Dixon (No. 32 transfer, 6-5 CG), Caleb Holt (No. 3 freshman, 6-5 SG), Ivan Kharchenkov, Motiejus KrivasOther notable returners: NoneNewcomers: Cameron Holmes (No. 33 freshman, 6-6 SG), Endurance Aiyamenkhue (international, 6-11 C), Ugnius Jarusevicius (unranked transfer, 6-11 PF), Evan Otten (unranked transfer, 6-10 C)

Tommy Lloyd continues to benefit from coaching USA Basketball. Last summer, Koa Peat got a head start in Lloyd’s system by playing for the Arizona coach in the under-19 World Cup. JJ Mandaquit and Caleb Holt were also on that team, and Mandaquit playing better for Lloyd than he did as a freshman at Washington. Tyran Stokes has long been considered the top prospect in the 2026 class, but is it possible that Holt could end up passing him? Holt looked like the best player in the class at the Nike Hoops Summit and had slightly better numbers than Stokes on that U19 team last summer. He has an opportunity to be Arizona’s star, and he has a better supporting cast around him than Stokes will have at Kansas.

Derek Dixon was an important pickup to give Arizona some perimeter shooting. Then there’s Motiejus Krivas, whose return probably isn’t getting enough publicity. I voted Krivas Big 12 Player of the Year because he was the most important player to the dominant defense that won the league for the Wildcats. There’s no center in college hoops I’d rather have on my roster. Give this team one more proven shooter (Momcilovic, maybe, or a late international addition) and I’d likely move the Wildcats into a tier with Illinois and Florida.

5. Michigan

Starters: Elliot Cadeau, Brandon McCoy Jr. (No. 10 freshman, 6-5 PG), Trey McKenney, J.P. Estrella (No. 25 transfer, 6-11 C), Moustapha Thiam (No. 13 transfer, 7-2 C)Other notable returners: Oscar GoodmanNewcomers: Jalen Reed (unranked transfer, 6-10 PF), Quinn Costello (No. 45 freshman, 6-10 PF), Lincoln Cosby (No. 47 freshman, 6-8 SF), Joseph Hartman (No. 96 freshman, 6-6 SG), Malachi Brown (No. 147 freshman, 6-5 SF), Marcus Moller (international, 7-3 C)

Michigan is right on UConn’s heels for the title of best returning backcourt, and its three-man perimeter could end up better if Brandon McCoy Jr. thrives. A few years ago, McCoy was in the conversation with Tyran Stokes as the best player in the 2026 class. His stock seemed to cool in the last year, but he looked like a very good two-way player at the Nike Hoops Summit and he’s heading to play for a coach who seems to get the best out of his players.

The frontcourt is not nearly as talented as it was last year, but it could be a while before we see any college frontcourt that good again. I really liked the fit for JP Estrella, who I think will excel playing for Dusty May. I’ve never loved Moustapha Thiam’s shot diet, but he landed in an optimal spot. I don’t think he can be Aday Mara, but Mara Lite would work. May once again has a ton of size and depth, plus a point guard in Elliot Cadeau who should make everyone around him look better.

6. UConn

Starters: Silas Demary, Braylon Mullins, Jayden Ross, Nikolas Khamenia (No. 27 transfer, 6-8 SF), Najai Hines (No. 24 transfer, 6-10 C)Other notable returners: NoneNewcomers: Colben Landrew (No. 25 freshman, 6-6 SF), Junior County (freshman, No. 43, 6-4 SG), Oskar Giltay (unranked transfer, 6-10 C), Nils Machowski (unranked transfer, 6-3 SG), Jaye Nash (unranked transfer, 6-3 PG), Isaiah Shaw (unranked transfer, 6-8 SG)

Braylon Mullins was one of the most surprising players to return to college. He was good as a freshman; he could elevate to All-America status as a sophomore. For the second straight offseason, Dan Hurley knew exactly what he wanted in the transfer portal and got his guy(s). Last year it was a big point guard in Silas Demary. This offseason he needed replacements for Tarris Reed and Alex Karaban, preferably with similar skill sets. He found both in Najai Hines and Nikolas Khamenia. It’s a lot to ask of those two to try to live up to what Reed and Karaban were, but it’s likely Hurley isn’t banking on that and will rely more on his backcourt. If Mullins can shoot like he’s capable of, which is way better than his 33.5 percent mark from 3 as a freshman, then UConn should be set up for another deep tourney run.

7. Texas

Starters: Isaiah Johnson (No. 15 transfer, 6-1 PG), Mikey Lewis (No. 64 transfer, 6-3 CG), Elyjah Freeman (No. 68 transfer, 6-8 SF), David Punch (No. 7 transfer, 6-7 PF), Matas VokietaitisOther notable returners: John ClarkNewcomers: Amari Evans (unranked transfer, 6-5 SG), Austin Goosby (No. 18 freshman, 6-5 SF), Bo Ogden (No. 46 freshman, 6-5 SG), Mantas Laurencikas (international, 6-3 PG), Joe Sterling (No. 113 freshman, 6-4 CG), Coleman Elkins (unranked freshman, 6-10 C)

This is the top candidate to be this year’s Michigan and successfully build a title contender through the portal. Isaiah Johnson was one of the most talented guards available in the portal. Can he be a true point guard? He averaged only 3 assists per game last year, so we’ll see, but he’ll have some pretty good targets. The frontcourt should be awesome. Matas Vokietaitis thrived late in the year, scoring 15-plus points in eight of his final 13 games. David Punch is the kind of Swiss Army knife four man that has thrived for Sean Miller in the past. Elyjah Freeman was an upside swing who gives the Horns really good positional size on the wing, and Mikey Lewis is a proven scorer who can also play some point guard.

The Horns are thin when it comes to interior depth and need redshirt freshman John Clark to be ready to contribute, but they’re deep everywhere else. Last year’s Michigan had more continuity to complement the star transfers, but this group is talented enough to be one of the best teams in the SEC and maybe the country.

8. Michigan State

Starters: Jeremy Fears Jr., Kur Teng, Jordan Scott, Coen Carr, Anton Bonke (unranked transfer, 7-2 C)Other notable returners: Cam Ward, Jesse McCulloch, Kaleb GlennNewcomers: Jasiah Jervis (No. 34 freshman, 6-4 SG), Ethan Taylor (No. 42 freshman, 7-0 C), Carlos Medlock Jr. (No. 48 freshman, 5-11 PG), Julius Avent (No. 88 freshman, 6-7 PF)

Jeremy Fears Jr. is back, so that means Michigan State is going to be very good again. Fears was arguably the best point guard in college basketball last season, leading the country in assists and becoming a much more reliable scorer. The Spartans lose two reliable low-post scorers in Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper. How well the replacements are able to perform likely will dictate the ceiling for this team. Anton Bonke had a solid sophomore season at Charlotte, but he could barely get on the floor as a freshman at Providence. Ethan Taylor has potential, but it’s rare for Tom Izzo to lean heavily on a freshman big unless he’s Jaren Jackson Jr.. Maybe Jesse McCulloch is poised for a sophomore breakout. Izzo has options, but his team is likely in for a dropoff up front. But there’s a lot to like, especially if Cam Ward and Jordan Scott take a step forward in their sophomore seasons.

9. Arkansas

Starters: Jeremiah Wilkinson (No. 73 transfer, 6-1 CG), Jordan Smith Jr. (No. 2 freshman, 6-2 SG), JJ Andrews (No. 12 freshman, 6-6 SG), Billy Richmond, Miikka Muurinen (international, 6-10 PF)Other notable returners: Isaiah Sealy, Karim RtailNewcomers: Cooper Bowser (unranked transfer, 6-11 C), Abdou Toure (No. 15 freshman, 6-5 SF)

If we were simulating the 2026-27 season, Arkansas would have the largest range of possible outcomes. I love Jordan Smith Jr. He always plays hard and has the tools to be the best perimeter defender in the country. Muurinen might be the most athletic big in college basketball. The roster has elite talent and athleticism. That’s all the good stuff.

The question marks: Does John Calipari have a point guard? Smith can play that spot but is more of a combo than a true point. Same with Jeremiah Wilkinson. Can Muurinen be an efficient scoring big? He is a weapon in transition, but he was inefficient in limited minutes playing for KK Partizan this past year, averaging 2.4 points on 41.2 percent shooting across 14 games in the Adriatic League and EuroLeague. And finally, can Cal get this team to guard? The Razorbacks ranked just 60th in adjusted defense with a similarly athletic roster last season. I’m betting on Smith setting the tone, but Cal’s teams are way more inconsistent these days on the defensive end.

10. Houston

Starters: Dedan Thomas Jr. (No. 41 transfer, 6-1 PG), Mercy Miller, Chase McCarty, Delrecco Gillespie (No. 38 transfer, 6-8 PF), Joseph TuglerOther notable returners: Kordel Jefferson, Brice JacksonNewcomers: Arafan Diane (No. 24 freshman, 7-1 C), Ikenna Alozie (No. 54 freshman, 6-2 CG), Braden East (unranked transfer, 6-9 C), Corey Hadnot (unranked transfer, 6-3 SG), Tyus Thomas (unranked freshman, 5-10 PG)

This is the first time since the 2021-22 season that Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson will not return at least two players who started double-digit games for him the previous season. That ‘21-22 team won 32 games and made the Elite Eight as a No. 5 seed. It’s probably worth betting on Sampson no matter what the roster is at this point.

This year’s squad could be a throwback to that ’21-22 team, which relied heavily on offensive rebounding and max effort. Houston landed one of the best rebounders in the portal in Delrecco Gillespie, who also gives the Coogs back-to-the-basket scoring they lacked a year ago. Huge freshman Arafan Diame should also help in those areas. Joseph Tugler should finally have a full healthy summer to work on his game, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a larger role in Houston’s offense. Another fit that makes sense is Dedan Thomas Jr., the type of high-usage guard capable of scoring in the mid-range that is valued more at Houston than most places. Add in some energy guys off the bench, and the roster fits the Sampson formula.

11. Louisville

Starters: Jackson Shelstad (No. 9 transfer, 6-1 PG), Adrian Wooley, Karter Knox (No. 89 transfer, 6-6 SF), Alvaro Folgueiras (No. 47 transfer, 6-10 PF), Flory Bidunga (No. 1 transfer, 6-9 C)Other notable returners: London JohnsonNewcomers: Obinna Ekezie Jr. (No. 16 freshman, 7-0 C), De’Shayne Montgomery (unranked transfe, 6-5 SG), Gabe Dynes (unranked transfer, 7-5 C), Boyuan Zhang (No. 53 freshman, 6-8 SF), Isaac Ellis (No. 175 freshman, 6-1 PG)

I’m a little gun-shy about falling too hard for Louisville because last year’s team didn’t live up to what I believed it could be. Luckily for Pat Kelsey, he won enough in the first two years and did so much better than the staff that preceded him that he was gifted a huge budget to buy another contender. Similar to Texas, everything makes sense on paper. Kelsey got proven commodities at point guard and center. He took an upside swing on the wing in Karter Knox, who should benefit from a system that encourages letting it fly from deep. Alvaro Folgueiras is the kind of versatile, pass-happy big man who is ideal for Kelsey’s system.

Flory Bidunga raises the floor defensively, although I have some questions as to whether this team will be good enough on that end. Kelsey is banking on Bidunga and a lot of size off the bench to give his team the paint protection it lacked last season.

12. St. John’s

Starters: Quinn Ellis (international), Ian Jackson, Tounde Yessoufou (No. 5 transfer, 6-5 SF), Donnie Freeman (No. 26 transfer, 6-9 PF), Ruben PreyOther notable returners: Lefteris LiotopoulosNewcomers: Babacar Sane (international, 6-8 SF), Lazar Stojkovic (international, 7-1 C), Theo Edema (No. 106 freshman, 6-11 C), Avery Brown (unranked transfer, 6-4 PG), Kyle Cuffe Jr. (unranked transfer, 6-2 CG)

Rick Pitino was the big winner on the night of the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline, landing Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou to give him two proven college scorers (Yessoufou and Donnie Freeman) to go with his international imports.

Quinn Ellis and Babacar Sane could be in eligibility jeopardy if the NCAA decides to really lean into not allowing former professionals to play. Ellis would be a huge loss; he is a legitimate EuroLeague guard. Sometimes going heavy on international talent can really work (see Illinois); sometimes it can bust (see UCLA, 2023-24). Overall, I didn’t love the roster as much as Pitino’s last two before the Yessoufou signing, but now it’s making more sense. Outside shooting could be a concern, but that weakness hasn’t slowed his back-to-back Big East champs.

13. Virginia

Starters: Chance Mallory, Sam Lewis, Jurian Dixon (unranked transfer, 6-5 SF), Thijs De Ridder, Johann GrunlohOther notable returners: Silas Barksdale (redshirted), Elijah Gertrude, Martin CarrereNewcomers: Christian Harmon (unranked transfer, 6-6 SG), Kalu Anya (unranked transfer, 6-8 PF), Favour Ibe (No. 161 freshman, 7-1 C)

In 2025, six top-20 KenPom teams from the prior season returned at least three starters (Houston, Michigan State, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue and UCLA); the first five were all top-three seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, and UCLA was a 7. This season, six teams fit that category: Arizona, Duke, Illinois, Florida, Michigan State and Virginia. That suggests I’m slightly lower on Virginia than I should be.

Virginia’s defensive floor is high, with Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grunloh returning up front. With those two on the floor, opponents shot just 43.4 percent inside the arc last season, per CBB Analytics. For reference, only UC Irvine had a better season-long 2-point defensive percentage. And Virginia’s one transfer addition, UC Irvine’s Jurian Dixon, is likely to start.

De Ridder is one of the best returning bigs in college hoops. It’s hard to see this team failing unless it doesn’t get enough scoring from its perimeter.

14. Iowa

Starters: Ty’Reek Coleman (unranked transfer, 6-2 PG), Kael Combs, Tate Sage, Cooper Koch, Andrew McKeever (No. 86 transfer, 7-3 C)Other notable returners: Cam Manyawu, Isaia Howard, Trevin Jirak, Trey ThompsonNewcomers: Ethan Harris (No. 99 freshman, 6-9 PF), Jaidyn Coon (No. 116 freshman, 6-6 SF)

Anyone familiar with Division II basketball knows that the question “Can Ben McCollum win without (insert graduated star point guard)?” has come up routinely. Take a look at McCollum’s Wikipedia page for the answer. Over the last 13 seasons across the two levels, McCollum has made 12 straight NCAA Tournaments (it would be 13 if not for the canceled 2020 postseason, when McCollum’s team was the favorite to repeat), and over that stretch, his team has gone 37-8 in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa returns six players from its Elite Eight team, and McCollum added two transfers who fit his system. Illinois State transfer Ty’Reek Coleman didn’t put up huge numbers as a freshman, but he’s good at getting to the paint and making smart decisions. McKeever gives McCollum the size his first Iowa team lacked, and he’s a gifted passer from the post and an efficient roller. (Similar things could be said about Trevin Jirak, who could be a breakout candidate as a sophomore.) Another plus is that McCollum has great positional size and wings who can stretch the floor. Yes, the Hawkeyes will miss Bennett Stirtz, but I’m banking on McCollum plus Iowa’s retention and player development, to lead to continued success.

15. Tennessee

Starters: Dai Dai Ames (No. 74 transfer, 6-2 PG), Terrence Hill Jr. (No. 14 transfer, 6-3 CG), Juke Harris (No. 2 transfer, 6-7 SF), Jalen Haralson (No. 30 transfer, 6-7 SF), Miles Rubin (unranked transfer, 6-10 C)Other notable returners: DeWayne BrownNewcomers: Tyler Lundblade (No. 23 transfer, 6-6 SG), Christopher Washington Jr. (No. 49 freshman, 6-9 SF), Ralph Scott (No. 67 freshman, 6-8 SF), Manny Green (No. 111 freshman, 6-6 SF), Marquis Clark (No. 217 freshman, 6-1 PG), Christian Fermin (unranked transfer, 6-10 center), Braedan Lue (unranked transfer, 6-9 SF)

Rick Barnes has a formula for finding a high-usage perimeter transfer and featuring that player heavily in his offense, from Dalton Knecht to Chaz Lanier to Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Only Gillespie didn’t exactly fit based on the previous year’s usage, but he had been a higher-usage player at Belmont before transferring to Maryland.

Now, behold, another kind of experiment. Barnes signed five very talented perimeter scorers, four of whom are high-usage players, and the fifth (Tyler Lundblade) led Belmont in scoring and shot attempts.

Barnes definitely has a talented roster, but can he make it work with this many high-usage scorers? Will they give the defensive effort that has made his teams consistently win? Did he sacrifice some interior toughness and rebounding by investing so much in the perimeter and not working harder to retain JP Estrella, Cade Phillips and Jaylen Carey? Will he miss the culture carryover that retention in his program has helped create? The Vols were definitely a winner in portal season in terms of talent accumulation, but I’m very interested to see how this group jives on the floor.

16. Nebraska

Starters: Trevan Leonhardt (unranked transfer, 6-5 SG), Pryce Sandfort, Braden Frager, Sam Orme (No. 91 transfer, 6-9 PF), Boden Kapke (unranked transfer, 6-11 C)Other notable returners: Cale Jacobsen, Connor EssegianNewcomers: Damon Wilkinson (unranked transfer, 6-10, C), Kadyn Betts (unranked transfer, 6-8 SF), Taj DeGourville (unranked transfer, 6-5 SG), Colin Rice (No. 87 freshman, 6-7 SF), Jacob Lanier (No. 112 freshman, 6-5 SF)

Nebraska shot 51.1 percent from deep last year and could lean into that approach even more with this roster. Fred Hoiberg upgraded his shooting at the four — replacing Berke Buyuktuncel (24.1 percent from 3) with Sam Orme (39.7 percent). Braden Frager and Connor Essegian will likely play most of the minutes Sam Hoiberg did last year, and both are 3-point-reliant scorers. Hoiberg also added another center who can shoot in Boden Kapke and found a point guard in Trevan Leonhardt, who shot 36.8 percent from 3 last year at Utah Valley.

Nebraska was also intentional about adding size, which is important to its defensive scheme. I’m not sure the Huskers can repeat ranking eighth in adjusted defense, but opponents will see a lot of length, with everyone measuring 6-4 or taller. Orme, as I explained in early May, is a great fit, and Leonhardt was one of the best passers in the portal. Nebraska will miss Rienk Mast as the hub of the offense, but Leonhardt’s passing should help make it up. The real challenge could be replacing Mast and Sam Hoiberg’s leadership, but few teams can match the shooting the Huskers will put on the floor.

17. Kansas

Starters: Taylen Kinney (No. 19 freshman, 6-1 PG), Leroy Blyden Jr. (No. 46 transfer, 6-1 PG), Tyran Stokes (No. 1 freshman, 6-7 SF), Keanu Dawes (No. 36 transfer, 6-9 PF), Christian Reeves (unranked transfer, 7-2 C)Other notable returners: Kohl Rosario, Paul MbiyaNewcomers: Dennis Parker Jr. (unranked transfer, 6-6 SF), Davion Adkins (No. 70 freshman, 6-9 C), Trent Perry (No. 92 freshman, 6-5 SF), Luke Barnett (No. 118 freshman, 6-4 SG)

A year ago, Bill Self built around the No. 1 freshman in the country, and he’s doing it again this year. Obviously, the Darryn Peterson experience did not go as planned, but in a world where Peterson never gets cramps, would Kansas have ended up a top-10 team? Even with a hobbled Peterson, the Jayhawks were a No. 4 seed, and Self got the most bang for his buck in the portal yet. He’s hoping for similar success with slightly under-the-radar guys like Leroy Blyden Jr., Keanu Dawes and Christian Reeves.

Young guard play is a concern, but Tyran Stokes will help with playmaking. One big wild card is Kohl Rosario, who was the most efficient scorer on the EYBL circuit last year before reclassifying to the Class of 2025. Rosario had an awesome summer, won a starting spot and then lost it after struggling with his shot. If he can make shots, he is the kind of high-effort, low-maintenance wing Self loves. Rosario could provide the floor spacing that allows Stokes to flourish.

18. Miami

Starters: Acaden Lewis (No. 28 transfer, 6-2 PG), Dante Allen, Shelton Henderson, Caleb Gaskins (No.17 freshman, 6-8 PF), Somto Cyril (No. 19 transfer, 6-11 C)Other notable returners: Marcus AllenNewcomers: DeSean Goode (No. 90 transfer, 6-8 PF), Nick Dorn (unranked transfer, 6-7 SG), Quin Berger (unranked transfer, 6-2 PG), Brent Bland (unranked transfer, 6-3 SG), Chris Birden (unranked freshman, 6-8 PF)

Jai Lucas proved he can accumulate talent and coach in his first year as the head man, and he’s assembled an even better roster for his second season. Acaden Lewis should be an upgrade simply as a passer and table setter. Tre Donaldson was really good last year, but consider this: Donaldson was also pretty good the year before at Michigan; the Wolverines replaced him with a more traditional point guard, Elliot Cadeau, and won the national championship. Get your scissors ready, Hurricanes!

That might be a stretch, but Lewis was a big-time addition. Shelton Henderson was a problem for Missouri and Purdue in the NCAA Tournament, and there aren’t many wings in college hoops who can play with that kind of force. Love Dante Allen as a glue guy. Somto Cyril was one of the best options to fill the Ernest Udeh role. The ceiling for this team could hinge on five-star freshman Caleb Gaskins. If he’s a one-and-done talent, then I might have Miami too low. And if he’s not ready, Lucas has a top-100 transfer at that spot in DeSean Goode, who was a super-efficient scorer at Robert Morris.

19. Gonzaga

Starters: Mario Saint-Supery, Isiah Harwell (No. 76 transfer, 6-6 SG), Davis Fogle, Braden Huff, Massamba Diop (No. 29 transfer, 7-1 C)Other notable returners: Parker JeffersonNewcomers: Luca Foster (No. 50 freshman, 6-5 SF), Sam Funches (6-10 C)

Gonzaga took a big hit this spring when German guard Jack Kayil decided to stay in the NBA Draft. I might have considered the Zags for the top 10 had Kayil gone to school. Maybe Gonzaga gets there if Isiah Harwell, a five-star recruit a year ago, finds his mojo.

The Zags’ frontline should dominate the new Pac-12. Massamba Diop has one of the highest ceilings of any transfer, and Braden Huff returns with the best hook shot in college hoops (assuming JT Toppin doesn’t play this season). Perimeter scoring and depth are question marks. This is not as deep a team as Few is used to coaching, and losing Kayil was unexpected. Still, there’s real potential if Harwell or Davis Fogle take off because the frontline will produce and Gonzaga is solid at point with Mario Saint-Supery.

20. Saint Louis

Starters: Trey Green, Quentin Jones, Kellen Thames, Amari McCottry, Sheek Pearson (unranked transfer, 6-11 C)Other notable returners: Ishan Sharma, Jax KerrNewcomers: Alon Michaeli (unranked transfer, 6-9 PF), Elijah Strong (unranked transfer, 6-8 PF), Jermel Thomas (No. 150 freshman, 6-2 PG), Jamison White (No. 220 freshman, 6-7 SF)

The SLU offense will miss Robbie Avila’s shooting, passing and smarts, but coach Josh Schertz has been coaching high-powered offenses for years. What could improve in the post-Avila era is the defense. The Billikens will be more athletic at center. Schertz also has options with transfers Sheek Pearson and Alon Michaeli, plus returner Jax Kerr.

Saint Louis is invested in hoops and could remain a steady presence in the Top 25 for as long as Schertz is there. It’s impressive to retain five rotation players from a team that smoked Georgia by 25 in the NCAA Tournament. At the mid-major-plus level, that kind of retention is rare unless you’re Gonzaga, which operates like a high-major. SLU might end up the next closest thing.

21. Purdue

Starters: Omer Mayer, C.J. Cox, Jack Benter, Caden Pierce (Unranked transfer, 6-6 PF), Daniel JacobsenOther notable returners: Gicarri Harris, Antione West Jr., Raleigh BurgessNewcomers: Luke Ertel (No. 38 freshman, 6-1 PG), Jacob Webber (No. 63 freshman, 6-6 SF), Sinan Huan (No. 65 freshman, 7-0 C), Jamyn Sondrup (No. 145 freshman, 6-9 C), Rivers Knight (No. 216 freshman, 6-8 PF)

Purdue will look different without Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn on the floor, but it’s safe to assume coach Matt Painter will find a way to win no matter who is on his roster. I fell hard for Omer Mayer last summer, and while he didn’t exactly produce as I expected as a freshman, he’s better suited as a ball-dominant point guard, and there were flashes of what he could be. He’ll benefit from the steadiness of C.J. Cox next to him.

Princeton transfer Caden Pierce sat out last season after a somewhat disappointing junior year, but he was the 2024 Ivy League Player of the Year as a sophomore. He’s been somewhat of a forgotten man because he sat out last year. Painter needs to find his next back-to-the-basket threat, but he has options in the freshman class. It’s also possible Luke Ertel is the next great Indiana-born guard to come through West Lafayette. There are a lot of ifs with this team, but always bet on Painter.

22. Indiana

Starters: Markus Burton (No. 18 transfer, 6-0 PG), Bryce Lindsay (No. 80 transfer, 6-3 CG), Darren Harris (unranked transfer, 6-6 SF), Aiden Sherrell (No. 20 transfer, 6-10 PF), Samet Yigitoglu (No. 51 transfer, 7-2 C)Other notable returners: Trent SisleyNewcomers: Jaeden Mustaf (unranked transfer, 6-5 SG), Vaughn Karvala (No. 64 freshman, 6-6 SF), Trevor Manhertz (No. 69 freshman, 6-8 SF), Prince-Alexander Moody (No. 86 freshman, 6-4 CG), Clemens Sokolov (international, 6-11 C), Justin Monden (unranked transfer, 6-0 SG)

Indiana is trying to follow the Michigan model by going huge up front with Aiden Sherrell and Samet Yigitoglu, who both played center last year. Sherrell can step out and make 3s, so the pairing works in theory. The key to Indiana’s portal splurge is keeping Markus Burton healthy. He is a proven bucket-getter, averaging 19.1 points per game in his career, but he has missed 28 games the last two years for Notre Dame. I’m a little skeptical until I see it in practice, but I like the individual pieces enough to at least rank the Hoosiers.

23. Iowa State

Starters: JaQuan Johnson (Unranked transfer, 5-11 PG), Killyan Toure, Jamarion Batemon, Blake Buchanan, Dominykas PletaOther notable returners: Mason Williams, Xzavion MitchellNewcomers: Tre Singleton (Unranked transfer), Ryan Prather Jr. (Unranked transfer), Taj Manning (Unranked transfer), Leon Bond III (Unranked transfer), Dorian Rinaldo-Komlan (Unranked transfer), Christian Wiggins (Unranked transfer), Yusef Gray Jr. (Unranked transfer)

Below are the KenPom preseason and final rankings for Iowa State during T.J. Otzelberger’s five years in Ames.

Otzelberger’s teams overachieve, so baking that into your preseason analysis is probably smart. Is this a Top 25 roster? Probably not. But Otzelberger’s transfers always end up better than projected, and he has a pair of sophomore guards, Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon, who will inevitably become stars in the Ames ecosystem. Otzelberger knows what he wants in the portal and works quickly. He found a mini Tamin Lipsey in JaQuan Johnson, and when I went to study Horizon League player of the year DeSean Goode at Robert Morris, I came away really liking Ryan Prather Jr. Iowa State was forced to replace two key assistants who left for head coaching jobs, JR Blount and Kyle Green, and that change in combination with losing three key starters might lead to a down year, but until that happens, I’ll likely keep ranking Iowa State in the preseason.

24. Vanderbilt

Starters: Tyler Tanner, T.O. Barrett (Unranked transfer, 6-4 CG), Ace Glass (No. 92 transfer, 6-3 SG), Sebastian Williams-Adams (Unranked transfer, 6-8 PF), Berke Buyuktuncel (No. 84 transfer, 6-10 PF)Other notable returners: Chandler BingNewcomers: Bangot Dak (unranked transfer, 6-11 C), Ethan Mgbako (No. 66 freshman, 6-6 SF), Anthony Brown (No. 81 freshman, 6-1 PG), Jackson Sheffield (No. 129 freshman, 6-9 C)

Tyler Tanner would have left for the NBA in another era of college basketball, but he’s back and should be a preseason All-American. Tanner alone is a reason to rank Vandy. Like Otzelberger, Mark Byington has identified portal players who fit his style. Berke Buyuktuncel should help address last year’s rebounding issues, and Sebastian Williams-Adams was starting to break out in the NIT for Auburn and could end up one of those better-than-expected finds.

25. Texas A&M

Starters: Bryson Warren (G League), PJ Haggerty (No. 8 transfer, 6-4 SG), Mackenzie Mgbako, Jalen Shelley (unranked transfer, 6-8 SF), Cade Phillips (unranked transfer, 6-9 PF),Other notable returners: Jamie VinsonNewcomers: Josh Irving (No. 59 freshman, 6-10 C), Tyshawn Archie (unranked transfer, 6-1 PG), Jalen Reece (unranked transfer, 6-0 PG), Lukas Walls (unranked transfer, 6-5 SG),

The difference between Bryson Warren and some other G League players who have come down to college basketball is that Warren put up real numbers, averaging 19.9 points and 5.0 assists while shooting 38.6 percent from 3 this past year. One high-major coach told me recently that they don’t play any defense in the G League, but many of the players are former productive college players, and it’s not like he put up those numbers in a third-division league in Slovenia. Warren and PJ Haggerty give the Aggies real offensive juice on the perimeter. Mackenzie Mgbako was once considered a lottery pick-level prospect. He is coming off two foot surgeries, but he did average 10.4 points in seven games for the Aggies on a bum foot.

Last year’s roster wasn’t as talented as this one, yet Bucky Ball produced 22 wins and a trip to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. I loved the addition of Cade Phillips, a high-energy big man who is perfect for McMillan’s system and an offensive rebounding machine. The Aggies did lose a lot of shooting, and it will be hard to replace Rashaun Agee, but that 1-2-3 combo has a chance to really hit.

Also under consideration: North Carolina, West Virginia, Missouri, Baylor, BYU, Alabama, UCLA, Providence, Arizona State, USC, LSU, Texas Tech, Kentucky.