It was a roller coaster of emotions for the BBN on Friday afternoon as the Kentucky Wildcats pulled off the improbable win over the Santa Clara Broncos in the Round of 64. Now, their focus shifts to the Iowa State Cyclones with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.
A 2-seed in the year’s tournament, the Cyclones had an impressive season in Ames. Finishing the year at 27-7 and 12-6 in the Big XII, they entered into postseason play with title aspirations, especially with Joshua Jefferson on the court.
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That all changed in today’s win over Tennessee State.
With Jefferson leaving the game and not returning against the Tigers, now all the question marks are starting to fly around his availability for the game on Sunday in St. Louis. The Cyclones will certainly be hoping he can take the floor, as the drop-off in efficiency without him on the court this season is steep.
For Kentucky, they will need to step back and take a breath after the close call against the Broncos. The story of the season has been a struggle in games they should easily win but shine in games they have no business being in.
Will that trend continue on Sunday? That is the hope, at least.
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How will an upset happen for Kentucky? It will once again take a big game from Otega Oweh. After shining in Game 1 while making an all-time NCAA Tournament moment, Oweh has cemented himself as a March Madness star this year. However, it will take other big games outside of Oweh to take down Iowa State.
Mo Dioubate will also need to match the physicality of the Iowa State forwards, especially if Jefferson can give it a go. Collin Chandler will need to see more shots fall, and one of Malachi Moreno or Brandon Garrison will need to dominate the paint once again.
There are a lot of factors playing against the Cats in this one, but at this point, they are playing with house money. Can they pull off the upset and get to a second straight Sweet 16? It’s a tall task, but one that seems somewhat feasible with the momentum from the win over Santa Clara.
Players to watch
Milan Momcilovic: 17.1 PPG on 51% shooting from the field and 50% from three
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Joshua Jefferson (if he plays): 16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 4.9 APG
Tamin Lipsey: 13.3 PPG, 5.0 APG, and 4.0 RPG.
Game Time: Sunday, March 22, 2026, at 2:45 PM ET
Location: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri
TV Channel: CBS
Online Stream: NCAA March Madness Live and the NCAA March Madness Live app
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens on the UK Sports Radio Network. You can listen on mobile devices with the Varsity Network app.
Replay: Check local listings on CBS Sports Network and March Madness Live
Rosters: UK | Iowa State
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Stats to Know: UK | Iowa State
KenPom: UK | Iowa State
Team Sheets: UK | Iowa State
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Iowa State favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 145.5 points. EvanMiya gives UK a 18.9% chance of winning. KenPom (25%), BartTorvik (22%), and DRatings (29.9%) also don’t favor the Cats to win.
Predictions: ESPN (79-69), DRatings (81-75), EvanMiya (79-70), and KenPom (77-70) all have the Cyclones winning.
While Kentucky is playing with house money against a 2-seed while Jefferson’s injury lingers, Iowa State is still a very dangerous team that’s capable of making a Final Four run. The Cats make a push, but the Cyclones come away with an 81-74 win.
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Now, send us your score predictions in the comments section!
And Go CATS!!
