March Madness superlatives going into the 2026 NCAA Tournament

We have the envelopes with the winners. No, not the Oscars — though the best‑picture winner “One Battle After Another” certainly sounds like it could have been based on March. These honors go to the teams and coaches poised for special achievements in the NCAA Tournament. Please step forward when your name is called.

MARCH MADNESS: Official 2026 men’s tournament bracket

Team most likely to get its first NCAA tournament win…

Nebraska, your moment might finally be here.

You’ve beaten Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Now all you have to do is beat Troy — and with that, all the annoying comments could finally end. No more reminders that you’re the only power‑conference program without an NCAA Tournament victory. No more mention of that 0–8 record.

You haven’t had many chances lately. In 2024, Texas A&M beat you by 15. In 2014, Baylor beat you by 14. That’s it for this century. The real heartbreak was 1991, when as a No. 3 seed you fell to No. 14 Xavier, 89–84.

How could you have known then that 35 years later you’d still be waiting?

Team most likely to reach its first Sweet 16…

Sorry, Nebraska — one award per customer. Step forward, South Florida.

Ignore the 11‑seed. You’ve lost only three times in 2026, by a combined five points, with two of those in overtime. You have five players averaging double figures. You make more free throws per game (20.2) than any team in the nation. Izaiyah Nelson swept American Conference honors: player of the year, defensive player of the year, and newcomer of the year. What’s next — mayor?

Your team GPA is 3.49. You stormed through the American Conference tournament by 22 and 15 points. You’re a story.

And you’ve endured heartbreak. Two years ago, Amir Abdur‑Rahim revived the program with a 25–8 season, then tragically died during a medical procedure at age 43. The next season sagged to 13–19.

Now Bryan Hodgson has you back. Foster care as a baby, adopted at two, active in Big Brothers Big Sisters — he’s a story too.

“I think if we’re fortunate enough to be in the tournament, I think people will see that we belong there,” Hodgson said last week.

Beat Louisville, then probably Michigan State, and you’re dancing into the Sweet 16.

Team most likely to reach its first Final Four…

Paging Vanderbilt.

Bring that offense averaging 86.8 points. The one that opened the season with games of 106, 105, 104, and 109. The SEC cooled things down, but you still hit 80 regularly.

We’ll call that 6–7 midseason stretch the winter doldrums and focus instead on the 17‑point rout of Florida, the 25‑point demolition of Kentucky, the 32‑point flattening of Mississippi State, and the back‑to‑back wins over Tennessee.

You’ve reached only one regional final — 61 years ago. You’re due. You’re explosive. And if Vanderbilt football can beat No. 1 Alabama two years ago and produce a Heisman candidate last year, you can beat McNeese, maybe Nebraska, maybe Florida again, and maybe Houston in Houston.

One game at a time, though.

Team most likely to play in its first national championship game…

Raise your hands, Iowa State.

The road is brutal — Michigan, Arizona, and others may stand in the way. But people in West Lafayette still talk about how you dismantled No. 1 Purdue by 23 in Mackey Arena. You also beat Kansas and Houston within 48 hours, then pushed Arizona to the wire last week.

You’re capable.

Imagine the storylines:

Tamin Lipsey, playing for the school down the street from where he grew up.

Milan Momcilovic, leading the nation by making nearly 50% of his threes — can he join our next H‑O‑R‑S‑E game?

T.J. Otzelberger, looking like he could play linebacker thanks to his weight‑room regimen.

The Cyclones have been to the Final Four once — in 1944. A return would be historic.

Team most likely to win its first national championship…

It won’t be a No. 1 seed — they’ve all done it. Probably not a team from the East region either, home to 32 national titles.

You know who you are: Houston.

Seven Final Fours, same as UConn. The Huskies have six titles. You have none. That’s as bittersweet as it gets.

You’re not quite as suffocating defensively this year, but you’re better offensively. And the committee did you a huge favor keeping you in the South regional. Beating you in downtown Houston won’t be fun.

Fate owes you. Last year’s two‑point loss to Florida in the title game was agony. So was 1983 and NC State’s legendary buzzer‑beating dunk. And look at the Hall of Famers who’ve blocked your path:

Wooden, Alcindor, UCLA

Dean Smith, Michael Jordan, North Carolina

John Thompson, Patrick Ewing, Georgetown

Baylor’s 2021 buzzsaw

MAKE YOUR PICKS: Fill out your bracket in the men’s Bracket Challenge Game

Sooner or later, it has to happen. Maybe now.

If you want to pull a Sean Penn and skip the ceremony, hand the award to Purdue. The Boilermakers have found their second wind and could be a worthy substitute — even if they might have to face Missouri in St. Louis, then Gonzaga and Arizona out West.

Coach most likely to reach his first Final Four…

Tommy Lloyd, step forward.

You recruit the world. Your roster could be its own U.N. Security Council. You’ve averaged 29 wins per season in five years at Arizona after all those years beside Mark Few.

And many believe this is your best team yet.

Coach most likely to win his first championship…

For sentiment, pick one of the old guys: Kelvin Sampson, breaking through at age 70. A story AARP members everywhere could love.

But there’s a young coach with a strong team standing in the way. You beat Jon Scheyer and a hot Duke freshman in last year’s Final Four. You might have to do it again. And then perhaps Dusty May and Michigan. And before that, Florida.

Team most likely to be a cinderella story…

Hello, Akron.

You went 29–5, yet Miami stole all the MAC attention. But you’re dangerous.

You’re seventh nationally in scoring. Miami went 18–0 in league play with eight one‑possession wins or overtime escapes. You went 17–1 with only two close calls — one being your lone MAC loss, 76–73 at Miami.

SCHEDULE: The official 2026 March Madness tournament schedule, dates

And the bracket might be breaking your way. You’re 0–7 all‑time in the NCAA Tournament, but Texas Tech’s best player is out and its second‑best is hobbled. Win that, and you likely see Alabama — and who knows how this week’s legal issues affect the Tide.

Survive, and you’re in the Sweet 16. Big news, no matter what Miami does.

Team most likely not to return to the Final Four…

This one is already decided: Auburn.

You can’t reach the Final Four from the NIT. Tough break, especially since you played five of the eight No. 1 or No. 2 seeds this season and beat Florida on its home court.

But the committee has spoken.

The other three teams from last April — Florida, Houston and Duke — all have strong chances to return. Not all three will make it, since Florida and Houston share a regional, but two could.

As for you, Auburn, you’re the favorite to win the NIT. And at least you’re playing — plenty of big names just packed up and went home. You deserve something for that.