The college basketball gods looked favorably upon fans across the nation on this Saturday, providing us with three matchups between ranked teams. Similar to college football Saturdays, there’s no need to leave the couch. Just get comfortable and enjoy!
The premier matchup features the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils squaring off in a rare, late-season nonconference game. It’s a neutral-site affair in Washington, D.C. These teams rank first and second, respectively, in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. Meanwhile, the Big 12 will be on full display as a pair of former No. 1 teams meet for the first time this season when the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats go on the road to face the No. 2 Houston Cougars. And don’t fall asleep early! Out west in Utah, the No. 23 BYU Cougars will host the No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones as both teams chase prime positioning for the Big 12 tournament.
Note: Odds are by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
No. 4 Arizona at No. 2 Houston (-5.5)O/U: 139.5 Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
This is as “big on big” as it gets. Both teams are physical and tough defensively. One of the biggest things to note here is that Arizona is going to be down one major piece in freshman Koa Peat. He missed Wednesday’s game against BYU and won’t play in this contest either, due to a leg injury sustained against Texas Tech.
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At home, Houston will control the tempo, which is slow (354th in adjusted tempo) and they give up the fewest points per home game at 54.5. Without Peat, the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer at 13.8 per game, the Arizona offense will take a hit. Offensively, Houston will face the top 3-point and 2-point shooting defense in the Big 12. The Cougars also rank second-to-last in the nation in average 2-point shot attempt distance. That will have them likely not hitting their normal shooting numbers against an elite defense.
Add into the mix the fact that Houston doesn’t shoot the 3 especially well and is also 358th in free throw rate. This feels like an under all the way.
The bet: UNDER 139.5
No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 3 DukeO/U: 148.5 Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Wolverines don’t have any observable flaws and they overwhelm opponents over 40 minutes. On paper, these teams seem similar statistically, but I think there’s a bit of a gap between them — particularly on the defensive side.
Michigan is the top team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Duke ranks second in that category, but their numbers are inflated against a weaker ACC. Eleven of the 18 ACC teams rank outside the top 70 in adjusted offensive efficiency, with three of them outside the top 100. Additionally, Duke’s scoring numbers take a hit away from Cameron Indoor (86.7 points per game compared to just 79.2 in road/neutral games). The Wolverines defense will give the Blue Devils all they can handle.
Michigan may be better away from home this season. They are a perfect 13-0 in games away from Ann Arbor and only three of those games have been decided by fewer than 10 points, with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points. Both of Duke’s losses this season have come on the road.
Michigan is the deeper, more experienced team, and is the better free throw shooting team. The Wolverines are also a better 3-point shooting team away from home. If this game were at Duke, I’d have a slightly different feeling on the Blue Devils. But it’s not, so I’m laying it here with Michigan.
The bet: Michigan -2.5
No. 6 Iowa State (-3.5) at No. 23 BYUO/U: 155.5 Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Cyclones come into this game riding a high after a huge comeback win over Houston in their last game on Monday night. Now they must go on the road to face a Cougars team that averages 90 points per game at home.
This is a bad spot for Cyclones. They’ve struggled against on the road in conference play, as they are just 3-3 straight up and against the number. Their three wins are against three conference bottom-feeders (Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Baylor — all ranked outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency). The home/road splits for Iowa State don’t bode well, either. Their scoring drops from 87.0 points per game at home to 79.1 points per game away from home. Additionally, their field goal and 3-point shooting both dip away from Ames.
Meanwhile, the splits favor the Cougars in a huge way, as they shoot 38.2% from beyond the arc at home but just 33% elsewhere. BYU needs this game or it can all but forget about a top-4 seed and a bye to the quarterfinals in the Big 12 tournament next month. This is a spot where freshman AJ Dybantsa can continue to make his case for National Player of the Year, especially with even more on his plate following Richie Saunders’ season-ending ACL injury.
I love the home dog here in a letdown spot for Iowa State. There’s a good chance BYU wins this game outright, so I’ll put a little on the money line as well.
The bet: BYU +3.5
