Men’s NCAA Tournament best bets for champion, Final Four, Sweet 16: Why Tennessee has value

Over the next three weeks, March Madness (men and women’s) will be dominating televisions and sports bars across the country — and my living room, which will likely have a four-screen setup. While the NCAA Tournament usually has fans filling out a bracket or two (or 10), the futures market at your favorite sportsbook will add some spark to your viewing pleasure after your bracket goes up in flames by mid-day on Thursday.

By now, most fans are familiar with sports betting, but there aren’t many sports betting events as fun as March Madness. You can obviously bet against the spread or on an over-under, but where I’ll be focusing on the futures market today. Books have always offered odds to win the national title, but you’ll find opportunities to bet on teams to make the Final Four and the Sweet 16 as well. In my opinion, it’s more fun to bet on your favorite Cinderella to get through the first weekend rather than to piece together a national title run.

If you’ve followed my college basketball bets in the past — or any sport for that matter — you know that I develop computer models to project the strength of each team in the tournament and the simulate the tournament many times over to see how often each team makes it through each round. My projected bracket and odds can be found below:

When it comes to betting in multiple areas of a certain futures market, it’s easy to get over-leveraged. So let’s talk a little bit of strategy before we get into the bets. Since there are Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four and national title odds, you can find yourself betting on a certain team in each market. I will do this, but I may reduce my bet size for some of the longer shot bets to not expose myself with too much risk on any given team. Throughout the tournament, I’ll be looking to add to this portfolio to try and maximize profits before it’s all said and done.

As always, please shop around at various sportsbooks as prices can vary.

Men’s NCAA Tournament best bets

To win the NCAA Tournament

Tennessee +2200 (risk 0.1 units)

If you’ve followed me last year, you know that we also bet on Tennessee to win the national title and while Rick Barnes hasn’t had the best track record in the tournament, the Vols did make it to the Elite Eight — and were tied in the final five minutes — to the eventual national runner-up Purdue. We are going back to the well again. As has been the case with just about every Tennessee team over Barnes’ tenure, they’re very reliant on defense to find success. No matter what public college basketball metric you find, you’ll find Tennessee in the top 10 in defensive efficiency, including seventh in my projections. The Vols tend to give up a ton of 3-point shots — which will lead to some variance — but they’re one of the best at defending against the 3 so I like my chances. On the other side of the ball, point guard Zakai Zeigler makes them go and they’ll probably need him to step up his shooting from the outside to make a run. He’s only a 32 percent 3-point shooter on the year. If the Volunteers can ride Zeigler — he was excellent in the SEC tournament — then Tennessee can find itself in San Antonio.

To reach the Final Four

Tennessee +360 (risk 0.25 units)
Texas A&M +1300 (risk 0.1 units)
Saint Mary’s +2300 (risk 0.1 units)
St. John’s +600 (risk 0.25 units)

To reach the Sweet 16

Tennessee -260 (to win 0.5 units)
St. John’s -150 (to win 1.0 units)
Iowa State -152 (to win 1.0 units)
Texas A&M +120 (risk 1.0 units)
Saint Mary’s +310 (risk 0.5 units)
VCU +390 (risk 0.25 units)
Drake +1100 (risk 0.1 units)