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Cinderella is dead. Or is it?
Last year was historically bad for mid-major teams, with none making the second weekend of the men’s NCAA Tournament and only four advancing to the Round of 32.
Was that a one-year blip or is that the new norm? So, the question is, will it happen again this year? How many mid-majors will advance to the Sweet 16? Zero, 1 to 2, 3 to 4, or more than four.
Zero would break our hearts here at Mid-Major Madness once again. We can’t afford to let that happen.
Let’s look on the positive, Derik Queen is nowhere near this Tournament.
There are several teams who have the potential to win multiple games.
Saint Mary’s is the highest seeded mid-major team as a seven, but the Gaels have a tough route to the Sweet 16. They have Bucky Ball and Texas A&M in round one before a potential meeting with Houston, who is the top 2 seed and would be playing for a chance to play in its home city in the regional semifinal and final.
Utah State and Saint Louis are both 9 seeds. Great for them, but they’ll probably have to upset 1 seeds in Arizona and Michigan, respectively, to reach the Sweet 16. That’s tough.
Santa Clara is a 10 and has Kentucky and its $22 million roster in the first round. Iowa State, who has wins over St. John’s Purdue, Iowa, Kansas and Houston, would likely be waiting in the second round.
Now, let’s get to the 11 seeds. This is where it appears the teams with the best chance to break through live.
VCU is hot after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament championship. The Rams were in the at-large discussion before they secured the auto-bid. They have a banged-up North Carolina team in the first round and then either Illinois or Penn in the second round.
South Florida looks strong. Izaiyah Nelson is a problem. The Bulls open against Louisville and then would have to play either Michigan State or North Dakota State. Despite the history of the Spartans, they have not made it past the first weekend in three of the last five years.
Then that brings us to Miami (OH). The RedHawks are 31-1. They are the only team in the field with fewer than two losses. However, they start in the First Four, so they’d have to win three games to get to the Sweet 16. But it’s doable. First off is SMU, which has lost five of its last six games. Next is No. 6 seed Tennessee, which has lost four of its last six. The second round would be against either Virginia or Wright State. Travis Steele and Co. are looking to prove themselves. A Sweet 16 run would do it.
As for the rest of the seeds, there are a couple of 12s and 13s who can do it.
McNeese won a game last year and is a 12-seed once again. Troy is the 13 in that region and plays Nebraska, who is the only power-conference team to never win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
Akron was considered the best team in the MAC. The Zips face a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech team. Hofstra has Alabama in the first round. The Pride played its best basketball to win the CAA tournament.
Love High Point being back in the Big Dance once again but have a tough Wisconsin team in the first round. Then, Hawaii meets SEC champion Arkansas to open things up.
Northern Iowa and Cal Baptist had historic performances to punch their tickets to the Big Dance, but they have Rick Pitino and Bill Self in their way.
There are many options out there. Just how many will pull it off?
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