We will get another mid-major in the Final Four – at some point.
It’s been bleak. No mid-majors making even the second weekend, let alone the third weekend for a second straight year.
We’re just three years removed from TWO mid-majors in the Final Four. We love you San Diego State and Florida Atlantic. Now, we’re experiencing a second Final Four in a row with four teams that rank in the top 10 in KenPom. Last year, it was the top four teams in the ranking.
So, what does the future look like? When will we see another mid-major on the game’s biggest stage?
According to our recent reacts poll, 38% of fans believe we are five-10 years from the next mid-major playing in the Final Four. Next was three-four years with 31%. More than 10 years had 21%, and one-two years received 10% of the votes.
Let’s look at some history. The NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and it took 21 years before a true mid-major reached the Final Four – George Mason in 2006. (That’s not counting UNLV and Memphis, who operated at a level and in conferences much closer to power-conference affiliation.)
However, after the 11th-seeded Patriots set the stage, we’ve seen a bunch: Memphis in 2008, Butler in 2010 and 2011, VCU in 2011, Wichita State in 2013, Loyola Chicago in 2018, Houston in 2021, and San Diego State and Florida Atlantic in 2023.
(For the Tigers and the Cougars, their conference affiliations put them in mid-major classification.)
The “Eye on College Basketball Podcast” took up this exact topic, and Matt Norlander was in lockstep with the poll.
“We’re two years removed from two of them being in there,” he said. “No, I don’t think we’re done [with mid-majors in the Final Four]. I don’t want to believe that we are. If it takes another seven-eight years, then it takes another seven-eight years… I think we can and will get there again, but we’re obviously in the midst a pretty significant sea change that’s going to last the better part of a decade before we get to somewhat stability. I think we’ll get there again. I just don’t know if it’ll happen next year or the year after.”
To Norlander’s point, it’s an ever-changing landscape. NIL. Transfer portal. Revenue sharing.
Those are all factors that have helped to contribute to mid-majors struggling to advance in the Big Dance.
“I do think it’ll be more infrequent than it has been in recent years,” Gary Parrish said. “It’s going to be more difficult than in this range of time where we were getting the George Mason, Loyola Chicago, Butler stories. It’ll be more difficult for programs like that, from leagues like those leagues to bounce to the final weekend of the season I believe going forward, based on rev. share and NIL and transfer waivers.” The odds are certainly stacked against mid-majors. Getting to the Final Four may not happen that soon. But we believe. And let’s hope we’re not starved for that long.
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