The best development for college basketball this offseason is the number of players who in years past would’ve left to become first-round NBA picks — but who instead are returning to school.
It’s no secret why: money. According to industry chatter, most high-major starters are set to earn at least $1 million next season, with players good enough to go pro liable to make several times that. Rising prices in the college basketball marketplace eventually lead to an inevitable either-or question: Would you rather be selected 25th overall — and make just under $2.5 million as an NBA rookie, per the league’s wage scale — or make more than that to star for a college team with championship dreams?
Already, a handful of prominent players — such as Florida wing Thomas Haugh, UConn guard Braylon Mullins and Duke center Patrick Ngongba II — have opted for Door No. 2.
As for those still deliberating, Decision Day is fast approaching. The NBA Draft combine begins on Sunday in Chicago, giving fringe first-rounders another key in-person opportunity to impress pro organizations and decision-makers. After that, players have until midnight on May 27 to officially withdraw from the draft while maintaining their eligibility.
So, which remaining stay-or-go decisions will have the largest impact on the next college season? These nine, although more will have smaller ramifications, too. Players are listed in alphabetical order, and all rankings are per Sam Vecenie’s latest NBA mock draft from late April:
F Amari Allen
2025-26 stats (at Alabama): 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, while shooting 34.1 percent from 3 and 73.8 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: 25
In another sign of the depth and dominance of this season’s freshman class, Allen — a sub-50 national recruit — emerged early as an every-game starter for Alabama, quickly becoming one of the Crimson Tide’s most important pieces. Allen was Nate Oats’ most consistent rebounding force, to say nothing of being a do-it-all wing who could also shoot and pass a little. Allen isn’t necessarily great at any one thing, and would probably benefit developmentally from returning to Tuscaloosa, but 6-foot-8 wings who can hang on the perimeter are the most sought-after NBA archetype. Plus, with other first-round-caliber wings like Haugh and Juke Harris (Tennessee) returning to school, Allen’s stock is going to rise.
Prediction: Stays in draft.
F/C Rueben Chinyelu
2025-26 stats (at Florida): 10.9 points, 11.2 rebounds and one block per game.The Athletic mock draft ranking: N/A
If Chinyelu opts to stay in the draft, the reigning Naismith Defensive Player of the Year will undoubtedly be selected, and quite possibly in the first round. He slides his feet well for someone his size — 6 feet 10 and 265 pounds, with a reported 7-foot-8 wingspan — and snuffs out extra opposing possessions with his rebounding prowess. Per CBB Analytics, Florida allowed 12.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with Chinyelu on the floor last season. Chinyelu, though, remains a work in progress offensively and will have great value in Gainesville.
Prediction: Returns to Florida.
F Allen Graves
2025-26 stats (at Santa Clara): 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.8 assists per game, while shooting 41.3 percent from 3 and 75 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: 32
Graves is maybe the biggest toss-up left. The 6-foot-9 analytics darling — who had the seventh-best steal rate in Division I, per KenPom, and the 16th-best offensive rating — showcased plenty of stretch forward potential during his redshirt freshman season and was a key reason Santa Clara made its first NCAA Tournament appearance in 30 years. On the flip side, though, it’s a sizable jump to go from averaging 22.6 minutes off the bench in the WCC to being an impactful NBA player. Graves would undoubtedly boost his stock if he produces in a larger role at a higher level, but given the pro interest he’s already receiving, is that necessary? The Louisiana native, who is sixth in The Athletic’s top-100 transfer rankings, will be heavily sought after if he returns to school — especially by LSU.
Prediction: Stays in draft.
F Morez Johnson Jr.
2025-26 stats (at Michigan): 13.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.1 blocks per game, while shooting 78.2 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: 17
Before Michigan’s march to the national championship, Johnson going pro was still up in the air — but at this point, Johnson’s surging stock makes it clear which way his decision is heading. At 6 feet 9 and 255 pounds, Johnson is a unit of a forward, with all the tenaciousness and intensity needed to carve out a pro career. He was one of the most efficient bigs in the nation last season. While Dusty May naturally would emphasize him more next season, what else is there for Johnson to accomplish in college? And Michigan wouldn’t have added a pair of top-25 transfer forwards in JP Estrella and Moustapha Thiam if there was a reasonable shot of Johnson returning.
Prediction: Stays in draft.
G/F Milan Momcilovic
2025-26 stats (at Iowa State): 16.9 points and 3.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 48.7 percent from 3 and 87.8 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: N/A
What’s the value of the best high-major shooter in college basketball? We’re about to find out, as Momcilovic — who had the second-best 3-point percentage in D-I last season, even while attempting 7.5 3s per game — goes through the draft process while taking transfer calls. Any high-major program in America could use a sharpshooter of Momcilovic’s ilk, but that elite skill also makes him attractive in the eyes of the NBA. The thing is, Momcilovic doesn’t provide a ton other than floor-spacing, and even three seasons at Iowa State didn’t turn him into a superb defender. He still has an outside chance of sneaking into the first round — but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t more money available for him in college.
Prediction: Returns to college, transfers.
Ebuka Okorie may have been overlooked in a deep year for star freshmen, but he hasn’t been missed by NBA scouts. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
G Ebuka Okorie
2025-26 stats (at Stanford): 23.2 points, 3.6 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game, while shooting 35.4 percent from 3 and 83.2 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: 22
Because he starred for a middling Stanford team, Okorie didn’t receive nearly the national praise he deserved. But the 6-foot-2 guard was among college hoops’ most electric players, finishing third in scoring among freshmen — ahead of projected top-five picks Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson — while recording eight 30-point games for the Cardinal, all with little help around him. He’s shifty with the ball in his hands, capable of splitting defenders and getting through the tiniest cracks in opposing defenses. Now, Okorie wasn’t the best finisher at the rim — in large part because defenses could gear up to specifically slow him down — and only shot the ball decently from deep, but his wiggle and creativity with the ball in his hands stands out even in a deep class of lead guards.
Prediction: Stays in draft.
F Koa Peat
2025-26 stats (at Arizona): 14.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game.The Athletic mock draft ranking: 16
There’s been some industry chatter that Peat — a tweener of a forward at 6 feet 8 and 235 pounds — might return to Arizona, despite a standout freshman season that ended in the Final Four. That’s because, for all his productivity and impact on winning, NBA decision-makers are split on his long-term upside. Peat wasn’t asked to be much of a shooter for the Wildcats, attempting only 20 3-pointers (and making seven) all season, while his 62.3 percent mark from the free-throw line further suggests he may never become a legitimate perimeter weapon like some of the other big wings in this class. However, Peat is an excellent passer and decision-maker — especially out of the short roll — to say nothing of his interior scoring and rebounding prowess. Even if his ceiling isn’t quite as high, it’s hard to imagine him not becoming a productive player in the league long term.
Prediction: Stays in draft.
G Tyler Tanner
2025-26 stats (at Vanderbilt): 19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game, while shooting 36.8 percent from 3 and 85.3 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: N/A
Tanner, a former no-star recruit, was one of the best stories in college hoops last season — and one of its most productive players. Considering his sharpshooting, quickness, defensive instincts and poise, Tanner has the total package as a two-way guard. So, why is he a fringe first-rounder? The depth at point guard in this year’s class — and more glaringly, his physical limitations at just 6 feet and 170 pounds. If Tanner were 3 inches taller, we might be talking about him as a lottery pick, but it’s an uphill battle to long-term NBA success for guards his size.
Prediction: Returns to Vanderbilt.
G Meleek Thomas
2025-26 stats (at Arkansas): 15.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game, while shooting 41.6 percent from 3 and 84.3 percent from the free-throw line.The Athletic mock draft ranking: 29
Even playing alongside Darius Acuff Jr. — the SEC Player of the Year and a projected top-10 pick — Thomas more than proved he can score at an NBA clip last season. The 6-foot-5 freshman has an elite shooter’s touch, finishing top-100 nationally in 3-point percentage and top-200 in free-throw percentage. It’s easy to see him becoming a potent microwave bench scorer/shooter at the next level. That said, he’s on the leaner side at just 185 pounds and needs to get stronger to be more effective as a driver and defender. His decision-making also remains a work in progress, especially with his shot selection. Thomas would be on the shortlist for SEC Player of the Year if he returned, but considering Arkansas’ backcourt reinforcements — namely, five-star recruit Jordan Smith Jr. and Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson — it’s more likely than not that Thomas joins Acuff as a one-and-done first-rounder.
Prediction: Stays in draft.
