The UMBC Retrievers will host the Vermont Catamounts at the Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore, Maryland, for the America East Championship game. The game will tip at 11 a.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN2.
A long, long time ago, I believe I was the only America East media personality who picked these two as the top teams in the conference.
Sometimes, I think I actually know what I’m talking about.
Let’s dive into the final 40 minutes of the season in our Vermont vs UMBC prediction.
There’s not much to say about UMBC that hasn’t been said already.
The guard trio — Ace Valentine, Jah’likai King and DJ Armstrong — is excellent at playing off each other, creating space in the half-court via drive-and-kicks, cuts and plenty of flare/cross screens.
While UMBC is often thought of as a pace-and-space, shoot-first offense, that’s a bit of a misconception. Jim Ferry still runs mostly four- or five-out, but he’s pumped the brakes in terms of tempo this year, and his half-court attack is relatively rim-oriented. The Retrievers need to get downhill to the rim first, and then everything else comes after. I call it the rim-attack-and-kick offense.
Naturally, that means you have to stop the dribble if you want to stop UMBC.
Vermont’s dribble defense has trended up in conference play. TJ Hurley has always been an awesome perimeter defender. Sean Blake improved on that side of the ball this year. TJ Long’s return from injury provided the Cats with another lengthy perimeter wing defender. Lucas Mari’s ability to play off-ball has kept his versatile one-through-four defense on the court more.
Vermont typically plays a fairly conservative man-to-man defense, as John Becker likes to recruit bigger guards to leverage in close-outs. But this year, the Cats have packed it in more than ever, giving up more triples to compensate for a weaker defense.
Noah Barnett is the team’s best defender, and he’s a pivotal anchor on the interior. But it’s tough to hide Gus Yalden, who can be a cone out in space, and the Catamounts’ defense really misses last year’s inside-out duo of Shamir Bogues and Ileri Ayo-Faleye.
It’s worth mentioning that UMBC will dump it down into the post for Josh Odunowo and Jose Roberto Tanchyn, but Yalden is actually a very good post-up defender because of his frame, while Barnett is similarly solid. Thus, I wouldn’t expect many post buckets from UMBC, hence why Odunowo scored just 12 points across the two head-to-head matchups.
Ultimately, UMBC struggled to get downhill and to the rim in both meetings. That resulted in a lot of dribble jumpers. The Retrievers missed them in the first meeting (6-for-26, 23%) and lost, while they made them in their second meeting (11-for-26, 42%) and won.
Tanchyn is a key matchup on this side of the court. His interior size has transformed UMBC’s defense, but it’s his ability to stretch the floor, shoot, and play off the bounce that keeps him on the court in Ferry’s offense. He can — and has — cooked Yalden out in space in pick-and-pop sets.
When Vermont has the ball
Ferry did a tremendous job building this roster, and it was his additions on defense that made all the difference.
Last year’s team was miniature. Thus, it was far too easy to either waltz to the rim off the bounce, dump it down in the post for easy buckets, or score second-chance points by crashing the offensive glass.
This year, Ferry surrounded Valentine — an already decent dribble defender — with other lengthy, pesky wings, like Armstrong, Cougar Downing and Caden Diggs. This transformed the Retrievers into the league’s best ball-screen coverage squad, a thought unthinkable a season ago.
Valentine’s been key on the defensive side for his elite rebounding from the guard spot and his quick hands in passing lanes. Some of UMBC’s best offense this season has come in transition following a steal from Ace. The Retreivers are still dynamic in transition when they want to run.
They were still very vulnerable on the interior until Tanchyn found his footing. UMBC needed a legit big man on this roster who could provide rim protection and rebounding without sacrificing anything on offense. The Spaniard stepped into that role brilliantly, and it turned the Retrievers from a solid second-place AmEast squad into the league’s powerhouse.
UMBC doesn’t beat Vermont in the second meeting without Tanchyn’s 13 rebounds. In a stretch of five February games, he pulled down 46 defensive rebounds and blocked six shots. He absolutely overwhelmed New Hampshire and UMass Lowell’s rim-oriented offenses during this tournament run.
Altogether, UMBC boasts a very well-rounded defense.
But the Catamounts can handle that. This is an elite offense filled with talent.
While Blake has his warts (finishing, some decision making), he boasts an incredibly quick first step off the bounce, and he’s really cut down on the turnovers this season.
Mari has really worked on his off-ball playmaking, and it flashed at times down the stretch.
Ben Johnson is an elite shot-maker and floor-spacer who is fantastic in Becker’s off-ball perimeter actions (even if he gives away a lot on the other end). Noah Barnett is a tad limited on the offensive end, but he’s a monster on the boards and has some decent power-based post moves.
But everything revolves around Yalden and Hurley.
Gus Bus is an unbelievably talented offensive player. If you let him get to his right hand in the post, he is basically impossible to stop. But you can’t double him in the post because of his elite passing vision and ability. Plus, he’s a deadeye shooter out of the pick-and-pop, and a very able perimeter driver off the bounce.
Hurley is one of the most talented shot-makers among the low-major ranks. He can light it up from deep, either off-ball as a catch-and-shoot artist, or on-ball as a dribble-jumper maestro — his top-of-the-key 3s have made me gasp all season. He was always great at scoring in the middle of the floor, but with improved strength and better spacing around him, he added more of an at-the-bucket paint game to his mid-range game. He’s the definition of a dynamic scoring wing.
That two-man game is appallingly good. Becker’s perimeter actions are fairly simple, but the DHO, ball-screen, and flex actions between the two are electric because of the individual talent.
That said, UMBC did an excellent job against the duo in both regular-season meetings.
Down in Baltimore, UMBC rotated Valentine, Diggs, and Armstrong on Hurley, and the trio face-guarded him for 40 minutes while bringing extra help from the baseline on drives, forcing eight difficult looks (he made one).
Up in Burlington, UMBC forced Yalden to catch the ball far away from the basket and then brought stunts and help from one guy away. It messed with his typical post-bucket-getting abilities and messed up the spacing in Vermont’s four-out sets.
We’ll see how Vermont adjusts in the third meeting, but I think the Catamounts’ bench unit will play a big role. Led by Long, Mari, and freshman Momo Nkugwa, the second-stringers have been a consistent shot-in-the-arm when needed over the past month.
Momo is a guy to keep your eye on. He’s a sparkplug off the bounce with an innate ability to score at the rim. Plus, he’s a pesky defender.
Of course, UMBC can counter with Diggs, the wing who parlayed his elite perimeter defense and crafty middle-of-the-floor game into a Sixth Man of the Year award.
Vermont vs UMBC Prediction: Our (Wrong) Pick
With Tanchyn playing at an All-Conference level, UMBC is playing an obscenely high level. The Retreivers are deserved favorites in the championship game.
That said, Vermont can pull off the upset. The Cats have already beaten UMBC once this year. Becker still has his fastball.
It’s going to come down to a few key areas.
First, Vermont’s dribble defense has to be on its game. If you can’t stop the Retreivers’ dangerous guard trio, you’re doomed.
That said, it still might not be enough. If those guards step into iso dribble jumpers and shoot 45% over the top, you’re doomed. It doesn’t help that UMBC is undefeated at home in conference play after shooting 37% from 3.
Becker is always toying with his defensive structure, but the Cats typically come back to their base man-to-man, because that’s when they’re at their best. I would be surprised if Vermont gambles a bit more on the perimeter, so it might come down to how effective the Cats are on their close-outs in isolation.
Second, Gus has to catch the ball closer to the basket. He can take Tanchyn one-on-one, as long as he’s in the low post, keeping space in-between him and UMBC’s perimeter defenders. If the Retreivers want to gamble for help, that should make life easier on Hurley, Johnson, etc.
Finally, there’s going to be a moment in the second half where these two bench units face off in a key stretch. I have a sneaking suspicion the Nkugwa-Long unit makes some big shots. Over the past five games, lineups including those two are running a +45 Net Rating, while lineups without either are running a -8 Net Rating. Whoever wins the Nkugwa/Long vs. Diggs/Riley Jacob battle might just win the war.
I will mention that I expect this to be a grinder. Conference championship games tend to trend lower-scoring, especially ones at 11 a.m. local time. UMBC’s not pushing the pace as much as it used to, and these are two elite transition-denial defenses. The two head-to-head regular-season games featured 66 and 62 possessions, respectively.
On paper, that helps Vermont, which is far more comfortable in lower-scoring, half-court rock fights. But mostly, it reduces the ability of either team to build a lead, increasing the likelihood of a closer game and vastly increasing its variance.
All this to say (all 1700 words of it), this is a coin flip.
Ultimately, I’m led to believe there are too many things that need to go right for Vermont to pull off an upset in Baltimore, especially after road losses to Albany, Maine and UMBC this season.
But most importantly, this will be a fun game, and I can’t wait for my beloved low-major conference to be televised to the nation in a standalone time slot. On that note, if you’ve been a loyal reader of these columns this season, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I pour my soul into covering this stupid little low-major league, and this readership makes it possible.
Selfishly, I want Vermont to win. But if it goes the other way, UMBC would be an excellent America East representative in the Big Dance.
My best guess? I’ll say the Retrievers hold serve behind a massive two-way game from Tanchyn in a low-scoring affair.
