There are no mid-majors in the Sweet 16 in both the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments for a second straight year. We know it’s been bad. But how does this trend stack up over the last 20 postseasons?
This year’s men’s tournament saw four teams advance to the round of 32. Last year had five. They went a combined 0-9 with a chance to advance to the Sweet 16. The 18 prior NCAA Tournaments featured an average of 7.6 mid-major first-round wins and 2.4 punch tickets to the second weekend.
The last two years are the worst two-year stretch in the last 20 years. The next worst was 2022 and 2023 when a total of 12 reach the second round. However, a combined five mid-majors reached the Sweet 16. San Diego State and Florida Atlantic advanced to the Final Four in 2023, and 15-seed Saint Peter’s went to the 2022 Elite Eight. Some of the best mid-major March runs ever.
“Mid-majors are great for basketball,” Michigan State men’s basketball head coach Tom Izzo said when asked about scheduling mid-majors.
The women’s side saw no mid-majors advance to the second round this year. Last season featured two win a first-round game with both teams bowing out in the second round. That’s a steep downturn from an average of 4.2 mid-majors in the second round and 1.1 going to the Sweet 16 each year over the 18 years prior.
The last three years have a total of three mid-majors reach the second round. We haven’t had a mid-major in the Sweet 16 since South Dakota in 2022. It’s the worst three-year stretch since 2016-18. But in that stretch, nine teams won at least one game, and three made the Sweet 16.
Five mid-majors advanced to the second round each year in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
How did we arrive at the last 20 years? There was a mass exodus of teams from Conference USA to the Big East that year. That conference realignment launched us into the current setup we have with CUSA being definitely considered a mid-major.
Will we see this trend turn around in the coming years? Who knows, but it’s not looking hopeful.
