As the calendar turned to February, the questions for this week’s men’s college basketball mailbag had a mostly common theme: the impending coaching carousel.
So we’ll begin with the coach who more of you asked about than any other …
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
With the coaching carousel starting up, it seems everyone’s number one candidate is Saint Louis’ Josh Schertz. The Billikens have one of the higher financial commitments in the Atlantic 10, especially considering the salary and buyout for both Schertz and (former coach Travis) Ford. Is it realistic they are able to retain him and push towards advancement in the next inevitable round of conference realignment? — Cole K.
Schertz is the hottest name on the carousel right now and for good reason. He built one of the best programs in Division II at Lincoln Memorial (Tenn.), won at Indiana State at a level no one had done since Larry Bird was on campus, and now Saint Louis (22-1) is on the verge of its best season in school history in only his second season. He checks all the boxes. Evaluator, developer, communicator and elite X’s and O’s coach.
Whether he leaves or stays at Saint Louis is likely to be determined by what actually opens this cycle. Schertz could have gone to a high-major when he left Indiana State two years ago if it was the only thing he cared about. He’s smart enough to know that once you go that route, you want to be at a place where it’s realistic to win. That’s why he chose Saint Louis. SLU is one of the best jobs in a good league, and because it doesn’t have football, it is set up well in this revenue-sharing era. Schertz is in a spot similar to Shaka Smart in his VCU days. He does not need to rush and should be picky. (The same could be written for two of the other coaches I think should be near the top of every opening’s wish list: Utah State’s Jerrod Calhoun and New Mexico’s Eric Olen. Both are at good basketball schools and can be selective.)
Saint Louis would definitely have a better shot at keeping Schertz if it were able to join the Big East, but I don’t think that can be part of his thought process. That’s a hypothetical that isn’t close to far enough down the road to even consider. — CJ Moore
I am tired of my Cincinnati Bearcats being a joke. Who should UC fans keep an eye on for head-coaching candidates for next season if we fire Wes Miller? My current list: Josh Schertz, Jerrod Calhoun, Eric Olen. — Paul G.
Things haven’t worked out at Cincinnati for Miller, who has yet to make the NCAA Tournament in his fifth season and isn’t trending that direction this year. The Bearcats entered February with an 11-11 record, their most losses at this stage of the season since 2007-08, which was Mick Cronin’s second at the helm and the program’s last with a losing record. Cincinnati hasn’t made the tournament since 2019, Cronin’s last season.
A coaching change feels inevitable. Miller’s buyout drops from $9.9 million to $4.69 million on April 1, a date many Bearcats fans have circled on the calendar.
Schertz would no doubt be on the candidate list, but as CJ noted, that will be the case for every high-major school in the market. Calhoun at Utah State is a really intriguing option. He built up Youngstown State and has had two strong seasons with the Aggies, plus he’s an Ohio native and Cincinnati graduate who worked as a student assistant under Bob Huggins and again as an assistant at West Virginia. Those ties alone would appeal to a portion of the fan base still pining for a return to the Huggins-era glory days, but Calhoun has shown enough to warrant attention regardless.
Olen would be another strong choice, and I suspect the mid-major likes of Ryan Pedon at Illinois State (who was runner-up for the Cincy job as an Ohio State assistant when Miller was hired), Tony Skinn at George Mason and Bryce Drew at Grand Canyon would get some consideration, among others. This would be a critical hire for athletic director John Cunningham, who is also under the microscope, so the assistant route seems less likely, though that shouldn’t completely rule out someone like UConn’s Luke Murray or Texas Tech assistant Jeff Linder, who was previously a head coach. Either way, Cincinnati is an attractive enough job to entice a strong list of candidates. If they make a change, Cunningham and the Bearcats need to get this one right. — Justin Williams
With two national championships at UConn, assistant Kimani Young is an attractive head-coaching option. (Christian Peterson / Getty Images)
Who are some assistant coaches who deserve a big head-coaching job? I’m a UConn fan and I know Kimani Young and Luke Murray have been huge in making the team what it is over the years. — George G.
Young and Murray are right at the top of the list. Remember: Had Dan Hurley opted to take the Los Angeles Lakers job in the summer of 2024, it’s likely that Young (deservedly) would’ve gotten the UConn gig, at least on an interim basis. Murray, meanwhile, is someone high-major teams — like NC State last summer — have been looking at already, especially for his offensive ingenuity.
But it’s worth pointing out that last season, only one high-major assistant — Duke’s Jai Lucas (Miami) — got a high-major head-coaching job from a different school than the one he was at. Many more high-major assistants — like Florida’s Kevin Hovde (Columbia) and John Andrzejek (Campbell), and Alabama’s Ryan Pannone (Arkansas State) — still got head-coaching jobs, but just at lower levels of the sport. There are plenty of qualified assistants who fall into that latter bucket … but fewer who could realistically jump from high-major assistant to high-major head coach, a la Lucas. (And I don’t think you meant high-major assistants who have already been head coaches before, like Texas Tech’s Jeff Linder or Michigan’s Mike Boynton Jr.)
That pool shrinks even further when you consider that most of the obvious candidates — Houston’s Kellen Sampson, San Diego State’s Dave Velasquez, Creighton’s Alan Huss and so on — are waiting to become their current school’s next head coach, either formally or expectedly. The two biggest names who stand out, though, are Duke’s Chris Carrawell and Tennessee’s Justin Gainey. Both were finalists for high-major openings last cycle — Carrawell at Florida State, Gainey at NC State — and could be again, although Gainey’s ties to the Wolfpack made for a unique situation. — Brendan Marks
Is it just me, or are there an inordinate number of 30-plus point games by individuals this season, and not just from one guy like Trae Young or Zach Edey in recent years? — Dan K.
Dan, you officially sent me down a rabbit hole. Congrats.
Anecdotally, I don’t disagree with you. It feels like every night, there’s some new, incredible breakout performance. But with the help of Stathead’s game record log, I crunched the numbers.
As of Tuesday morning, there have been 437 30-point games this season, with 73 different high-major players hitting that mark at least once. The national leaders in 30-point games, as of Tuesday morning, were Jackson State’s Daeshun Ruffin and Tarleton State’s Dior Johnson, both of whom have seven such performances. (The high-major leader is JT Toppin, with five.)
For the sake of time, I only went back a decade to the 2015-16 season — and while this season is certainly on the higher end, you might be surprised to know that on a per-day basis, this season only has the fourth most 30-point games in the last decade. The high mark was actually one you mentioned in your question: 2017-18, when Young had nine of the 787 30-point games in college basketball that season. (Both 2016-17 and 2018-19 are ahead of this season, too, but only narrowly.) That equated to almost five and a half 30-point games per night, compared to 4.75 this year. We could still see this season climb the ranks — but for now, it’s on pace to be a very good, but not great, year for 30-point games. — Marks
Is this year’s version of the Tobacco Road rivalry the start of what it once was? Highly ranked matchups and big-time players. What are the key factors leading into the game for each team? — Jasper S.
What it once was? You mean all those years ago, when both teams were ranked in the top 10? Like way back in … 2024?
In all seriousness, Jasper, I get your point. UNC-Duke always delivers, but admittedly, the past few seasons — ever since that fateful 2019 ACC tournament semifinal, which remains the most fun UNC-Duke game I’ve ever covered — haven’t quite lived up to the rivalry’s historic billing. (No, I’m not forgetting the Final Four meeting, which was also incredible.) North Carolina’s inconsistency during Roy Williams’ final years and Hubert Davis’ tenure has been a key reason why, although let’s not forget that Mike Krzyzewski had a historic stinker of his own in 2020-21. All of which is to say, I interpret your question as: Will the Tar Heels regularly start holding up their end of the bargain? Because Jon Scheyer sure seems to have things figured out in Durham.
As of now, I would say yes. The Tar Heels have a top-10 budget in the sport, and as Davis’ roster shows, he’s still a strong talent evaluator, even with a handful of portal misses the last few seasons. That has given North Carolina a relatively high floor, to say nothing of the sky-high ceiling it has shown at times, like against Kansas and the second half at Virginia. I know the “fire Hubert Davis” crowd probably doesn’t want to hear that, and Davis isn’t without his flaws, but after last season, he’s shown he can make good use of the resources at his disposal.
As for Saturday’s game, the three key factors I’m watching are:
1. How does North Carolina defend Cam Boozer? Caleb Wilson will have the first opportunity, obviously, but I imagine Jarin Stevenson — and possibly even Zayden High, as a body with five fouls to give — will get their moments, too. UNC can’t afford for Wilson to pick up early foul trouble defending Duke’s star, as Armando Bacot did a few years back against Paolo Banchero.
2. Who wins the battle on the interior? Duke is second nationally in 2-point percentage and UNC is fifth nationally in 2-point defense, per KenPom. Henri Veesaar and Wilson make for formidable rim protection, but Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II are a load to handle down low. If UNC can stymie Duke in the paint, and force the Blue Devils to become a little trigger-happy from 3 — which they’ve been at various points, usually to their detriment — then that’s a huge advantage in the Tar Heels’ favor.
3. Which backcourt comes up bigger? Both have been maligned at times this season, but in Seth Trimble and Isaiah Evans, each blue blood has at least one guard it knows it can count on. But beyond that? Does Caleb Foster show his veteran savvy, or does Derek Dixon stamp himself as a freshman? What about Cayden Boozer or Luka Bogavac? The bigs are going to be productive each way, so whichever secondary guard shows up most might swing the outcome. — Marks
Brayden Burries and Arizona give the Big 12 a high-end national championship contender. (Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
To win the national championship, would you rather take all of the Big Ten teams, all of the Big 12 teams, or the field? For once, I don’t think it would be the field. — Anonymous U.
I think I agree: At the moment, Big Ten versus Big 12 seems to be a tougher choice than either conference over the field. Of the top 10 teams in KenPom, seven are from the Big Ten (four) and Big 12 (three). If you compare that to recent seasons, there were four SEC teams in last year’s final top 10, one of which was title-winning Florida. In KenPom’s final 2024 and 2023 rankings, no conference had more than two teams in the top 10.
Or we could look at CJ’s recent midseason list of title contenders, where of his top six, there’s only one — UConn — outside of those top two leagues. If we extend it to his six “other contenders,” there’s still only three of his top 12 not in the Big Ten or Big 12, with Duke and Gonzaga entering the chat.
Neither KenPom nor CJ are infallible (we see you in the comments, Duke fans). UConn, Florida and the Blue Devils are all on my championship short list, and maybe Gonzaga if Braden Huff can return from his knee injury in time to make an impact. And who knows, one of those teams or another fringe contender might add some recent NBA players to their rotation down the stretch. Even CJ would have to respect this Duke roster with Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel back in the fray. But if we’re playing the odds, smart money is on the Big Ten or Big 12.
Which one? Of the nine collective teams we alluded to above, the Big Ten has five (Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska) and the Big 12 has four (Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech). Add in BYU and/or Kansas for the Big 12, and it’s pretty even either way. But right now, I find myself leaning toward the Big 12’s top two of Arizona and Houston. Let’s see if I feel the same way in a month. — Williams
Do you think there is any truth to the claim that Darryn Peterson’s family/agent are limiting his minutes? The BYU game was weird, in that he just stopped playing. But when Kansas needed him against Texas Tech, he was there until the end (and boy was he there). All I know is that KU is really good when Darryn is on his game, and I really hope to see that in March. — Adam D.
The whole situation is certainly weird and hard to explain and like nothing I’ve ever seen before in basketball, and I do believe it’s possible there’s more to the story than Kansas or Peterson has shared. I hope he gets to the point where he feels comfortable sharing what’s been going on. But if the goal was to just allow Peterson to show enough of himself to be the No. 1 pick, then he’d be done. Shut down. Because he has proven enough on the floor to lock that down.
What’s going to determine whether Peterson is the No. 1 pick or not is what comes out during the pre-draft process in his medical evaluations. If the doctors for the team with the No. 1 pick tell their team there’s no reason to worry about Peterson long term, then he’s going to be the No. 1 pick. You do not pass on his combination of shotmaking and feel, and as he showed on Monday night against Texas Tech, that clutch gene. But let’s say his family or agent is telling him to shut it down at certain moments in each game, then why would he finish the Colorado game on a sprained ankle? Where were they on Monday night? Less risk in Lubbock? For college basketball fans, hopefully Monday will become the norm and Peterson can finish games without issue. We’re set up for a pretty epic March with the quality of teams and players, and Peterson being a part of that (with no limitations) would make it even more fun. — Moore
