Why college basketball’s changing rules are making high school recruiting less valuable

NORTH AUGUSTA, S.C. — What’s a high school recruit worth in the new era of college basketball? Even the best ones?

On the surface, it sounds like a financial question — and it is to an extent, given the NIL commitments still required to land five-star recruits.

But now more than ever, it’s also about the big picture. In June, the NCAA Division I cabinet officially adopted new age-based eligibility standards — more colloquially known as 5-in-5 — that allow all college athletes moving forward to play five seasons within five years. That includes all rising seniors, who otherwise would’ve seen their eligibility expire after next season. Which means…

“There’s going to be, like, 95 percent of college basketball players that have eligibility following this season,” said one Big Ten head coach, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to protect relationships. “This is the first time that we can bring them all back.”

That shift is set to dramatically upend the traditional cycle of college rosters — in which incoming freshmen replace older players who graduate or turn pro — for at least one offseason, if not more. According to 25 high-major coaches The Athletic surveyed at Nike’s Peach Jam in July, one group in particular is likely to bear the biggest brunt of next summer’s looming roster crunch:

2027 high school recruits.

“This particular ‘27 class will be disrupted more than any,” said a second Big Ten head coach. “Anyone who has more eligibility that hasn’t moved up yet will move up, the best players. So … (it) will probably have us recruiting less high school players than ever.”

Would coaches rather have a battle-tested senior who’s already played at a high level for your program … or an unproven 18-year-old, who may or may not be ready to immediately contribute?

Especially with a lackluster 2027 class, which pales in comparison to recent star-studded groups headlined by Cooper Flagg, AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer.

“Unless it’s a high school kid that’s a top-25 kid, top-10 kid for you, how are they going to be able to come in and help?” said one ACC head coach. “I don’t know how many coaches at the Power 5 level will recruit high school kids anymore.”

Added the first Big Ten head coach: “Every (high school) player you take is probably a player on your roster that you’re OK with not bringing back.”

In many ways, coaches expect the 5-in-5 rule to exacerbate a recent college hoops trend that dates back to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ever since the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament — and the ensuing extra year of eligibility that all affected players received because of it — college basketball has steadily gotten older, more so than at any previous point in its history. The 2024-25 season was arguably the peak, when all the freshmen who first enrolled in the summer of 2020 had endured to their “super-senior” years. At the same time, other eligibility crises saw junior college players receive additional seasons, too, while older internationals started migrating overseas in search of lucrative NIL paydays.

The result? Older teams than ever — many of which, not coincidentally, have also won at the highest level.

Consider there was only one freshman starter in the entire 2024 Final Four: UConn guard Stephon Castle, a future top-five pick who went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year. Florida, which won it all in 2024-25, didn’t have a single first-year player in its rotation, instead relying on multiple fifth-year guards en route to its title. And this April, when Michigan won its second championship in program history, it did so with only one freshman (five-star guard Trey McKenney) playing consequential minutes.

And strictly from an on-court perspective, the actual quality of ball has never been better.

“If you look at the last period of guys getting five years, like with the COVID year, I think it’s good for the game of basketball,” said one SEC assistant. “Basketball efficiencies, all that sort of stuff, are higher over that period of time.”

Put together, those unique circumstances have reshaped the high school market — and now, with the NCAA’s new eligibility rules set to take effect, it’s unlikely things will revert anytime soon.

That’s why, as one coach said, Saint Mary’s — a successful but smaller WCC school, with two Sweet 16 berths ever — was still able to land four-star guard Darius Bivins, who was a McDonald’s All-American. Other top-100 recruits wound up at the likes of UC Irvine and Pepperdine.

“That usually never happens,” said another ACC head coach, “so you can kind of see where the trend is going.”

Some coaches, including the SEC assistant, said their programs specifically recruited the transfer portal with the idea that 5-in-5 would come to fruition. But almost every coach said that they now intend to recruit smaller high school classes, especially in 2027 given the overlap in prospective players. Still, strategies about how to handle high school recruits vary.

One SEC head coach, for instance, said he’s still amenable to signing multiple high school recruits — but only as long as they understand the expectations once they get on campus.

“If guys are willing to buy in, I don’t mind signing three or four freshmen, but it’s not good if they expect too much from a playing (time) or from a financial standpoint,” the SEC head coach said. “it’s going to be dependent upon what the freshmen are willing to accept as their roles — and probably their pay.”

Several coaches said that instead of targeting their typical four or five high school recruits, they planned to go after two in the 2027 class: ideally, one who can play right away — like a top-30 prospect — and another who’s more of a long-term, developmental piece.

That’s nice in theory, but it requires finding recruits who are willing to accept those expectations, especially after so many instant-impact freshmen dominated college basketball this season.

“It’s going to be hard for any of these ‘27s,” one Big 12 assistant said, “to have the splash that the ‘25 class had.”

Of course, that’s not going to stop the sport’s elite programs from chasing top prospects like Beckham Black and Cayden Daughtry, a pair of top-five recruits who look poised to be instant-impact college players.

But there’s only realistically so many players, especially in 2027, who look qualified to be immediate contributors — and only so many programs that can reasonably land them.

“Your best teams are going to have star freshmen. I don’t think that’s going to change,” said one Big 12 head coach. “It’s too hard every year to think that you’re gonna get elite transfers and build your program on that every single year. You can do it occasionally, but I think it’s way more consistent to get elite freshmen.”

Most coaches agreed that recruits who traditionally would’ve been high-major targets will instead go to mid-major schools first, where they can play (and get paid) right away, before matriculating up through the transfer portal.

“Some low- to mid-majors will be able to get some kids that are better than they’re used to,” said another SEC head coach, “with the idea of, ‘Hey, come here for a year or two, and we’ll get you to the level that you want to be at.’”

So, is high school recruiting ever going to rebound? Possibly, according to some coaches, but it would likely require some rules changes — most notably, to the NCAA’s transfer policy. But if the governing body went back to one-time transfers, in conjunction with its new age-based eligibility standards, some coaches believe high schoolers would be the biggest beneficiaries.

Basically, if a kid can only transfer once and coaches potentially have five years to mold them, they’re willing to bet on their development plans over the long term.

“If the transfer rule changes, now you’re getting another year, but you’re kind of back to the old model,” said one Big East assistant. “So if you’re bringing in some guys that maybe you want to develop or you want to take a chance on, and you’re projecting a little bit further down the line, it gives you that flexibility.”

But that idea, of course, hinges on the NCAA being able to enforce one-time transfers — which it currently is unable to, at least without assistance from Congress.

Over time, as classes cycle through and programs adjust to the long-term strategy of players having five seasons’ worth of eligibility, coaches expect regular high school recruiting to pick back up. That’ll especially apply whenever there’s a mega-class, like 2024 or 2025, with plenty of prospects who look like future NBA stars.

In the short term, though, don’t expect the 2027 high school class to be nearly as sought-after or showcased as recent star-studded groups. Because it’ll be a while until the full effects of the NCAA’s new age-based eligibility rules are felt and understood.

“It’s going to put more downward pressure on those high school kids, and it’s not going to make high school recruiting more valuable,” said one ACC assistant. “It’s gonna make it less valuable.”