Arsenal and Real Madrid will face each other in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2005-06. We take a look at what the difference makers could be in this mouth-watering quarter-final could be.
With Real Madrid so often in the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League, it’s quite surprising that their meeting with Arsenal this week will be their first against the Gunners in 19 years.
It promises to be a fascinating clash between two teams who find themselves in second place in their respective leagues, and who might see the Champions League as a better opportunity of success this season, but they’ll have to get over quite a significant foe in this quarter-final.
Ahead of Tuesday’s first leg at the Emirates Stadium, we’ve picked out five things that could determine who will advance to face either Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa in the semis.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s Soft Centre
Arsenal will take confidence from Real Madrid’s suspect defensive numbers this season – especially through the middle of the pitch.
Madrid might once again have got to the business end of the Champions League, but there are concerns about the balance of their side. Their weekend defeat to Valencia followed a chaotic 4-4 draw against Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey, and those games only reinforced what has been a season-long issue: this team gives up too many chances, particularly through the centre of the pitch.
Madrid have now conceded 61 goals in all competitions this season – 11 more than they allowed in the whole of last season, and just one shy of their total in 2022-23, with 10 fewer games played.
Their underlying numbers don’t offer much comfort either. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have conceded 1.21 expected goals per game, which makes this campaign their worst defensively since 2018-19. They have conceded 10+ shots in 14 of their last 17 matches and are without a clean sheet in eight straight games. They are vulnerable.
This is especially striking when compared to Arsenal, who have built their recent title challenges on defensive solidity. In contrast, the Gunners have conceded 10+ shots just five times across their last 17 games and Mikel Arteta’s side are allowing just 0.88 xG against per game in all competitions this season – the third-best figure in Europe’s top five leagues behind Bayern Munich (0.80) and Inter Milan (0.87).
Kylian Mbappé has made Real Madrid more dangerous going forward, but his presence has compromised their ability to press. Ancelotti has leaned on a 4-4-2 shape recently, but it’s a system that can be sliced open. Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are often bypassed easily in the first line of pressure, leaving Madrid’s midfield exposed.
Opposition centre-backs are frequently able to pick passes between the forwards and into central midfielders, who can receive on the half-turn in space.
Here are two examples from Barcelona’s 4-0 rout of Real Madrid back in October in La Liga, where Pau Cubarsí is easily able to find Pedri in between the lines.
Our sequences metric highlights how open Madrid are through the middle. In La Liga this season, the average width of opponents’ attacks against Madrid is just 24.7 metres – the second-narrowest figure in the league, behind only Barcelona (24.1m).
And Real’s opponents are progressing the ball far, too. Madrid allow 15.6 metres of progression per sequence – the most of any team in La Liga.
Despite having a PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 12.2 – eighth-lowest in the league – Madrid don’t disrupt their opponents effectively in their press. The average opposition sequence against them lasts 10.3 seconds, which is the fifth-longest in the division. Teams are keeping the ball and moving it through the thirds with ease.
Madrid will be without the suspended Aurélien Tchouaméni for the first leg, leaving Luka Modric and Eduardo Camavinga likely to start in midfield. Asking Modric, now 39, to cover large areas of the pitch in the middle is a tall order.
Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard is precisely the kind of player who can take advantage of this vulnerability. If Arsenal can break Madrid’s midfield and find Ødegaard between the lines, they’ll have a real opportunity to get at a fragile back line.
Another English Feast for Mbappé?
As we recently explored, there seem to be a few people still under the impression that Mbappé isn’t having a particularly good first season at Real Madrid. This despite the fact that the Frenchman already has 33 goals in all competitions, as many as Cristiano Ronaldo scored in the entirety of his first season at the club in 2009-10.
Mbappé also has a very decent record against English teams.
Granted, he didn’t have a great night at Anfield in November when Madrid were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool in the league phase of this season’s Champions League, seeing a penalty saved by Caoimhín Kelleher.
However, he has scored 10 goals in 16 games against English teams in the competition – four of which came in his two most recent such matches against Manchester City in this season’s play-off round, including a sensational hat-trick in the second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu.
The only player to net more knockout stage goals against English teams in a single campaign is Karim Benzema, who scored seven for Real Madrid in 2021-22 in five games.
Mbappé will be keen to get on the scoresheet against Arsenal; his next Champions League goal will see him go level with Ruud van Nistelrooy and Thomas Müller (both 56 goals) in joint sixth place in the all-time scoring charts in the competition.
Beat Me If You Can
For all the attacking stardust in attendance, they will have their work cut out on Tuesday as they come up against two of Europe’s best goalkeepers.
That is assuming Thibaut Courtois is fit to play after missing Real Madrid’s last three games since the international break with a muscle issue, though he has been named in the travelling squad and said at a press conference on Monday “I am fully fit and I feel good.”
Both Courtois and Arsenal’s David Raya are among the top five-ranked goalkeepers for goals prevented in the Champions League this season based on xG on target faced (xGOT), excluding own goals. The Belgian has prevented 3.9 goals (13 conceded from 16.9 xGOT) while Raya has prevented 3.8 goals (5 conceded from 8.8 xGOT).
One thing that will make Gunners fans hopeful is that Courtois has only kept one clean sheet in his 10 Champions League games this season, while Raya has kept five. Only Inter’s Yann Sommer (seven) has more.
Arsenal the Corner Kings
It was a typical misfortune that in the same game that Arsenal’s most threatening corner taker in Bukayo Saka returned from a long injury lay-off, they’d lose their most dangerous aerial set-piece threat for the rest of the season.
Gabriel Magalhães has played a key part in Arsenal’s rise to the most feared team from corners in Europe, with the Brazilian frequently on the end of their whipped set-piece crosses.
No player has scored more goals via first contacts from corners in the top five European leagues this season than Gabriel (3), while only four players have made the first contact from attacking corners more times than the Brazilian (17).
His presence in the box has helped Arsenal to the highest tally of goals (11) and expected goals (5.5) from corners across the top five European leagues in 2024-25, while only Benfica and Bayern Munich have generated a higher xG from corners in the Champions League this season than Mikel Arteta’s side (1.4).
Without Gabriel, Arsenal’s threat from corners is much reduced. Mikel Merino and Jurriën Timber are their only other players who have scored from the first contact at an attacking corner in league competition this season, but having Saka back to fire his inswinging corners in from the right side will give them a boost.
Only two players across Europe’s top five leagues have more assists directly from corners this season than Saka (3), while Arsenal have scored five goals overall from corners taken by Saka (5) – again the third best in Europe. Declan Rice has produced three goals with his inswingers from the left, so at the very least Arsenal have the providers of chaos available, it’s just whether Gabriel’s fit teammates can make the most of them.
It should also be noted that the first goal Real Madrid conceded in their defeat to Valencia on Saturday came from a corner, while they also conceded from a set piece in their dramatic Copa del Rey semi-final second leg against Real Sociedad last week.
However, they did also score from two corners against La Real themselves, while their solitary goal against Valencia also came via the same route, so Arsenal will need to be alert when defending set pieces as well.
Rodrygo’s Time to Shine?
We also recently observed that Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham tend to get most of the attention from the wider football world, but Rodrygo is arguably as important to Real Madrid’s attack as any of them.
His two-footedness, his skill and his creativity from the right can unlock the best of defences, and the Brazilian might be fancying his chances of doing some damage on Tuesday.
Not to underestimate the very impressive Myles Lewis-Skelly, who has been a breakout star for Arsenal this season, but assuming the 18-year-old lines up from the start at left-back at the Emirates, he will have to deal with one of the best wide forwards in the game, while trying to develop chemistry with Jakub Kiwior to his immediate right.
The Polish defender has come in to Arsenal’s backline after the season-ending injury to Gabriel in last week’s win over Fulham and looked a bit rusty at Goodison Park on Saturday. Everton’s (arguably soft) penalty stemmed from Kiwior not dealing with a long ball from Jordan Pickford, leading to Lewis-Skelly having to fight with Jack Harrison just inside the penalty area, before being judged to have fouled the Everton man.
Rodrygo is having another excellent season, with 14 goals and nine assists in all competitions, while only Vinícius (83) and Modric (80) have created more than his 76 chances for Los Blancos.
Given how many dangerous attackers Madrid have, Rodrygo won’t be the first thing Arsenal have to think about, but he will be a significant threat nonetheless.
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