COLUMBUS, Ohio — NFL personnel from teams holding early 2026 draft picks crowded the sideline inside the Woody Hayes Athletic Center during Ohio State’s pro day on March 25, watching Caleb Downs move from drill to drill. After the workout, with his arm around Buckeyes defensive coordinator and former NFL coach Matt Patricia, Downs addressed the same question those general managers have been contemplating: Is it worth taking a safety in the top 10?
“At the end of the day, it’s about affecting the game,” Downs answered. “Whoever affects the game the most should be picked the highest — and I feel like I do it at the highest level.”
The top 10 of the draft has long served as a barometer of how the league values positions — and who it believes affects the game the most.
To no one’s surprise, quarterbacks — with the ball in their hands on every offensive play — have gone in the top 10 more than any other position this century with 49 selections. After that, come offensive tackles (42 selections since 2000), who protect the quarterback, and edge rushers (38), who hit the quarterback. Not far behind are wide receivers (37), who catch the ball, and cornerbacks (25), who cover them.
Outside of interior offensive linemen and tight ends, no position on offense or defense has been selected in the top 10 less often than safeties, who traditionally line up farthest away from the quarterback before every snap.
Since 2000, only eight safeties have been selected in the top 10: Roy Williams (2002), Sean Taylor (2004), Michael Huff (2006), Donte Whitner (2006), LaRon Landry (2007), Eric Berry (2010), Mark Barron (2012) and, most recently, Jamal Adams (2017).
That’s fewer than defensive tackles (22 selections), running backs (18), and even off-ball linebackers (14).
In fact, since the start of the common draft era in 1967, only six safeties have been taken in the top five: Berry, Taylor, Eric Turner (1991), Bennie Blades (1988), Rickey Dixon (1988) and Kenny Easley (1981).
Safety has long been one of the NFL’s most devalued positions — in the draft, in free agency and in contract extensions. But Downs’ versatility and impact are beginning to challenge conventional wisdom. The question facing teams picking early in this draft is whether Downs, an undeniable talent and one of the most complete safety prospects in years, is the kind of exception who should go in the top 10.
“When you draft in the NFL, you’re always looking at who scores touchdowns and who prevents touchdowns with coverage, pass rush,” said Patricia, a longtime New England Patriots assistant who was also head coach of the Detroit Lions. “But then on top of that, who’s the face of your franchise? Who are you bringing in that’s going to represent your ownership, your organization, everything that you want to embody as a team?”
That’s one of the arguments for Downs, who as Ohio State’s defensive leader and captain, functioned as a force multiplier, even without monster individual numbers (just six interceptions over three seasons).
“He’s a football savant,” said former Buckeyes cornerback Davison Igbinosun, who is projected to be a Day 2 pick in this draft. “He can understand and process football at a very high level.”
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Downs was the SEC Defensive Freshman of the Year at Alabama before transferring to Ohio State after Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban retired.
In Columbus, Downs was a two-time unanimous All-American as the backbone of a Buckeyes defense that allowed the fewest points in the country (11.2) over the past two seasons. He won a national championship in 2024, then was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year last season while also winning the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the nation’s top defensive back each year.
“Downs plays a very clean and efficient game,” said one NFL executive. “He has the Ohio State pedigree going for him. He’s durable, great character, has NFL bloodlines.” Downs’ brother Josh is a receiver for the Indianapolis Colts, and his father Gary played running back in the NFL.
Yet even though he was a winning player in college, some NFL executives remain unconvinced Downs warrants a top-10 pick. He didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the combine. At 6-foot, 206 pounds, Downs also doesn’t possess the intriguing physical traits of the other safeties who have gone in the top 10, including Taylor, who was 6-foot-2 and 231 pounds, and Landry, who ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
“[Downs] is an excellent football player,” said a front office executive. “But are we sure he’s going to go as high as everyone is saying? Because the safeties that go that high, like Sean Taylor, like LaRon Landry, were physical freaks. Even the guys that went in the top 15, Minkah [Fitzpatrick] could play corner or safety, Derwin [James] was like a Swiss Army knife [James went 17th overall], Earl Thomas had elite speed and range at free safety. … I’m not wholly convinced [Downs] is going to go quite as high — but if he does, it’s going to be because he has a very low miss factor.”
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In addition to favoring elite traits and ceilings over reliability with top-10 picks, teams have also prioritized premium positions that are harder to address outside the draft. As Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach pointed out, positional value can be reflected in free agency. Blue-chip edge rushers, for example, “don’t really become available.”
Referencing both Downs and Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, also a potential top-10 pick, Veach noted that, “some of the best players in this draft are at non-premium positions. It’s hard to find fault with their tape. But some of those more premium positions, they’re hard to find.”
As another NFL executive added, teams could usually get by defensively expending fewer resources at safety when it’s been merely “an air prevention position” — a last line of defense against deep passes rather than a driver of coverage structure.
But the safety position is also beginning to change in a way that could favor Downs.
Versatile playmakers, like All-Pro Kyle Hamilton of the Baltimore Ravens and hybrid safety Nick Emmanwori in Seattle, are being deployed in a multitude of ways that enhance their value. Hamilton has shown how a safety can thrive as a coverage eraser, pressure defender and disguise piece all at once — roles that once were spread across multiple positions.
“Those types of players, they’re not necessarily a nickel or a safety,” said new Ravens coach Jesse Minter, who will have Hamilton at his disposal after coaching James to a second-team All-Pro season as defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Chargers last year. “They can be moved around to impact the game. When you do a variety of coverages and different pressures, you can move that guy where you want to move them.
“Those types of players — they’re weapons.”
Likewise, Patricia deployed Downs all over the field last season as the centerpiece of a defense built on disguise and versatility. That began in the opener against Texas quarterback Arch Manning, when the Longhorns didn’t score until late in Ohio State’s 14-7 statement victory.
The Buckeyes surrendered only 18 completions of 20 yards or more all year, fewest in the country. They also allowed just 2.94 yards per rush, sixth best among Power 4 defenses.
Almost always, Downs was at the center of it all.
“When you got guys that are eraser-type players in the defense, that can play in the multiple different roles, that can be in the middle, be outside, be in the box, be in the deep part of the field,” Patricia said, “those guys that are going to be on your team, your organization for 15-plus years, you take them whenever you can get them. And that’s Caleb.”
