Last year, in the inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff, eight of the teams that qualified had two losses.
Five of the seven at-large teams had two losses, and three of the five conference champions had at least two losses. Keep that in mind as more contenders fall each week and the playoff picture changes — this system is more forgiving.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top-12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. A team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now. And a team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The now 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change from week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:ACC | Big 12 | Big TenSEC | Independent | Group of 5Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Vanderbilt. The Commodores probably have more work to do in the selection committee meeting room than with the AP poll voters. As good as the win against LSU was, it was Vandy’s first win against a Power 4 opponent with a winning record. Both Virginia Tech and South Carolina are sub-.500 teams right now, and wins against FCS Charleston Southern, a 1-6 Sun Belt team in Georgia State and a three-loss Utah State team aren’t enough to make the CFP. Vandy has enough opportunities, though, to change that, starting Saturday. If Vandy beats Mizzou, its chances of reaching the CFP will climb to 49%. A loss, though, would drop that to 14%. Vanderbilt’s toughest remaining games are against Missouri, at Texas and at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. If the Commodores lose one more game and finish 10-2, they’ve still got a chance, but how that résumé stacks up with other 10-2 teams leaves the door open for debate.
Enigma: Missouri. The Tigers are in a similar spot to Vanderbilt, with a loss to Alabama and even less to compensate for it. Missouri’s best win might have been Saturday’s double-overtime win at now four-loss Auburn. It also has an FCS win against 2-4 Central Arkansas, a win against a 2-5 Sun Belt team in Louisiana and a win against a 0-7 MAC team, Massachusetts. Both Kansas and South Carolina are unranked and sub-.500. A win at Vanderbilt on Saturday would give Missouri its first ranked win AND its first win against ANY opponent with a winning record. A loss would put the Tigers in a must-win situation in November, needing to beat Texas A&M and win at Oklahoma on Nov. 22. Missouri has found ways to win against lesser competition, but it needs the second half of the season to show the committee it can do it against more elite teams, too.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Vanderbilt
Work to do: LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas
Would be out: Mississippi State
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. Many were quick to dismiss the two-loss Trojans following their road loss to rival Notre Dame, but it was a nonconference game and USC still has a chance to change the Big Ten’s playoff picture. If USC can run the table, that would include a Nov. 22 win at Oregon (another team that could fall under the enigma category, given what has happened to Penn State). That head-to-head result would be critical because in that scenario, both teams would have two losses, and it’s one of the committee’s tiebreakers when teams are comparable. That’s currently the only game left on USC’s schedule that it’s not projected to win, as ESPN Analytics favors the Ducks (72.3%). That’s why USC currently has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (15%) behind Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon.
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Enigma: Iowa. The Hawkeyes have quietly won four of their past five games, that lone loss coming Sept. 27 to Indiana — by a whopping five points. Is that really the gap between Iowa and the nation’s No. 2 team? Iowa has a chance to prove it in the second half of the season with back-to-back games against Oregon and at USC. Iowa would have to run the table and finish 10-2 to have a chance — and ESPN Analytics gives the Hawkeyes a less than 1% chance to do that. In addition to the loss to the Hoosiers, Iowa also lost at rival Iowa State, and the selection committee would consider that it was a close loss on the road early in the season to an in-state rival. It’s not a dagger — nor is a close loss to Indiana — but the Hawkeyes still have a lot to prove, and it won’t be easy. Iowa has less than a 50% chance to beat Oregon, USC and Nebraska.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, USC
Would be out: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Washington
Out: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Virginia. Following Miami’s loss to Louisville, the two teams with the highest chance to reach the ACC championship game are now Georgia Tech (62.3%) and Virginia (39.4%). The Cavaliers’ 30-27 overtime win at Louisville looks even better after the Cardinals knocked off Miami. The Sept. 6 loss at NC State will be a sticking point in the committee meeting room if the Cavaliers don’t win the ACC, though, or finish as a two-loss runner-up. Virginia isn’t likely to play a ranked CFP opponent in the second half of the season, but that also means running the table is a realistic scenario. According to ESPN Analytics, the only remaining game Virginia isn’t favored to win is Nov. 15 at Duke.
Enigma: Louisville. Any team that has a chance to win its conference has a chance to make the 12-team CFP, and Louisville has a 19.5% chance to reach the ACC title game and a 16% chance to win out. The Cardinals could be a CFP top-25 team if they continue to play like they did in their win at Miami. Their lone loss was in overtime to Virginia, and they now have a statement win against a CFP contender in Miami. Their problem is the rest of their résumé, but a nonconference win against James Madison is respectable, considering the Dukes are 6-1 in the Sun Belt with an outside chance at the playoff. The win against Pitt is decent, as the Panthers are over .500, but Louisville needs to look the part down the stretch, as only Cal and SMU are over .500 and nobody is ranked. The only game left on the Cardinals’ schedule they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at SMU, according to ESPN Analytics.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami, Georgia Tech
On the cusp: Virginia
Work to do: Louisville
Would be out: Cal, Duke, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The close loss at Arizona State knocked the Red Raiders out of the top-12 projection and onto the bubble. If Texas Tech wins the Big 12 but finishes outside the selection committee’s top 12, it would still lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Red Raiders are still on track to do that and have the best chance (61%) of any team in the Big 12 to reach the conference championship, followed by undefeated BYU (59.1%). Those teams play each other on Nov. 8, and Texas Tech will have home-field advantage. The two can face each other again in the Big 12 title game. Where it gets tricky is if Texas Tech finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Some of it would depend on how the Red Raiders lost in the title game and how ASU fares down the stretch. Texas Tech has the seventh-best chance in the country to win out (23.2%), according to ESPN Analytics.
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Enigma: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are undefeated in Big 12 play and 6-1 overall, with their lone loss in the season opener to Nebraska. The question is if they can sustain their success against the No. 26 most difficult remaining schedule in the second half of the season. They have the third-best chance to reach the conference championship behind Texas Tech and BYU — two teams that still have to play each other. Cincy doesn’t play the Red Raiders, but it will face BYU on Nov. 22 at home. November road trips to Utah and TCU also won’t be easy, as ESPN Analytics gives Cincinnati a less than 50% chance to win each of those games.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: BYU
On the cusp: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston
Would be out: Arizona, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Out: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Independent
On the cusp: Notre Dame. With the win against USC, the Irish climbed to No. 12 in this week’s CFP projection — quite a turnaround from the 0-2 start. But they would still be out if the playoff were today because the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is again projected to be South Florida, is outside of the committee’s top 12. That means the No. 12-ranked team gets excluded to include the Bulls. Notre Dame is in must-win mode for the rest of the season but still has the best chance of any team in the country (69.2%) to win out. If undefeated Navy can keep winning, the Irish might have another ranked opponent on their schedule to add to the USC win.
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Group of 5
Spotlight: South Florida. No Group of 5 team has a better chance to reach the playoff right now than the Bulls (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics — well above the second-best teams, North Texas (14.7%) and Tulane (14%). The American has separated itself from the other Group of 5 conferences because of the winning records, but also because of the strong nonconference opponents. South Florida’s wins against Boise State and Florida give it a significant boost over other contenders, and the lone loss — while lopsided — was on the road against a Miami team that still looks like a playoff contender. South Florida’s 63-36 drubbing of North Texas on the road was also significant. The American’s best teams, though, still have to play each other, and South Florida will travel to Memphis, Navy and UAB, which just beat Memphis.
Enigma: Tulane. Like South Florida, Tulane also played a respectable nonconference lineup that includes wins against Northwestern and Duke — both Power 4 teams that are above .500. The Green Wave’s only loss was a 45-10 drubbing at Ole Miss, but the Rebels are one of the top playoff contenders. Tulane and South Florida don’t play during the regular season, but they could face each other in the conference championship game. Tulane has the third-best chance to reach it (14%), just a hair behind North Texas (14.7%). The toughest game left on the Green Wave’s schedule is Nov. 7 at Memphis. ESPN Analytics gives Memphis a 66.2% chance to win.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)No. 2 IndianaNo. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 GeorgiaNo. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole MissNo. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&MNo. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 AlabamaNo. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 IndianaNo. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
