If Everything Breaks Right: A path to CFP for each Top 10 team

In theory, a starting spot in the top 10 of the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll should bode well for a team’s chances of concluding the season in the 12-team College Football Playoff. In practice, however, that’s anything but a guarantee.

Though the expansion to 12 is still fairly recent, we need look no further than last year to see just how speculative preseason rankings can be. Of the preseason top 10 in 2025, fully half did not wind up making the playoff. That list includes preseason No. 1 Texas, as well as notable name-brand programs like Penn State, Notre Dame, Clemson and LSU.

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So what could trip up this year’s top 10? To be sure, they all benefit from a lofty starting point, but all will face plenty of challenges over the long fall where things could go very right or terribly wrong. Here’s a look at the keys for each of the top 10 teams hoping to carve a path to the playoff.

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No. 1 Ohio State

Key games:

What needs to happen: Getting an early road win at Texas isn’t a must, but it would provide a nice insurance policy in case the Buckeyes experience a stumble or two during their Big Ten slate. Sweeping the Hoosiers and Ducks would all but guarantee a playoff spot, but a split would in all likelihood be good enough.

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What could go wrong: Few programs have avoided the unexpected loss better than Ohio State in recent years, but there are potential traps at Iowa on Oct. 3 and at Southern California on Halloween. A 9-3 mark would be cutting it close with the committee, even with the Buckeyes’ schedule.

No. 2 Oregon

Key games:

What needs to happen: As long as the Ducks take care of business against the rest of the Big Ten’s west-coast enclave, the trip to Columbus wouldn’t be a do-or-die proposition. If they do find a way to prevail in Ohio Stadium, that would be icing on the cake.

What could go wrong: With all due respect to Boise State, there isn’t much to move the needle on Oregon’s nonconference schedule, though it can’t completely discount the Broncos. The Ducks would therefore do well to avoid a second Big Ten loss.

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No. 3 Georgia

Key games:

What needs to happen: Winning two of the three key games likely do the trick for the Bulldogs. Even two losses on the road might be survivable. Sweeping them would of course be ideal, but there are always other possible traps in the SEC.

What could go wrong: The trip to Ole Miss falls just a week after a certain Cocktail Party, and while the date with Florida is in Atlanta rather than its traditional Jacksonville home, it’s still a rivalry game that could alter the course of the campaign. November dates with Missouri (home) and South Carolina (away) could also prove more difficult than preseason projections would suggest.

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No. 4 Texas

Key games:

What needs to happen: A win against Ohio State in the bank before embarking on SEC play would be monumental, but a loss isn’t a deal-breaker. Even with no Georgia or Alabama on the schedule there are enough quality opponents to build a playoff resume as long as the ‘Horns get to 10 wins.

What could go wrong: As the team found out the hard way last year, 9-3 made things iffy. To be clear, it was the Florida loss and not the Ohio State result in the opener that ultimately doomed Texas. The Sept. 26 visit to Tennessee in the league opener might be similarly dangerous.

No. 5 Notre Dame

Key games:

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What needs to happen: For the sake of argument, we’ll assume the Fighting Irish handle the rest of their schedule beyond the three listed above. Winning two of those three to get to 11-1 should keep them in the top 12. That’s especially true if Notre Dame gets past both BYU and Miami, which would leave some margin for error.

What could go wrong: Dropping two of those three key games would leave the Irish in an extremely precarious position, especially if the losses are to teams in at-large contention. Even with two wins out of three, another blemish like the annual date with Navy or the season opener against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field could mean the committee’s verdict is again harsh. The reality for Notre Dame is 10 wins might not be enough if matched against teams with greater strength of schedule.

No. 6 Indiana

Key games:

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What needs to happen: The Ohio State game isn’t necessarily a must win, but getting the Buckeyes in Bloomington is an opportunity the Hoosiers would do well to take advantage of. A 10-2 record should be good enough for a seat at the table given the respect the program has earned the past two seasons.

What could go wrong: Should Indiana fall to the Buckeyes and Wolverines in consecutive weeks, then November pressure will be real. There’s also the matter of a potentially tricky test at Nebraska before then. It’s doubtful a 9-3 mark would sway the committee with nothing on the non-conference slate to bolster the resume.

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No. 7 Miami (Fla.)

Key games

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What needs to happen: While a good result against Notre Dame ultimately tipped the scales in the Hurricanes’ favor last year, that might be more difficult to achieve on the road this time. Fortunately for Miami, there’s an alternate path available as long as they win the ACC.

What could go wrong: Yeah, about that — since joining the league the ‘Canes have appeared in the conference championship game once — a forgettable 38-3 loss to Clemson in 2017. Miami’s reputation for losing a game it shouldn’t every year didn’t develop by accident. Surprise defeats to unranked Louisville and SMU last year almost kept them out of the field. Playing their first three ACC games away from home could spell trouble.

No. 8 Texas A&M

Key games

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What needs to happen: Given that only one of those games listed above is at home, the Aggies will need at least one signature victory in hostile environs. One way or another, they’d do well to at least get to 9-1 before that one-two punch of a closing stretch.

What could go wrong: Playing archrival Texas on a short week isn’t ideal, and doing it right after the visit to Norman makes it even more suboptimal. Any unexpected setbacks prior to the last two games in November could sink A&M’s chances.

No. 9 Oklahoma

Key games:

What needs to happen: Beating Michigan isn’t a must but it would be a nice one to have in the bank given the run of games in conference. Of the quartet of SEC contests mentioned, the Sooners probably need to win at least two and hold serve against a schedule that includes trips to Florida and Missouri.

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What could go wrong: There’s a chance OU will have a ‘3’ in the loss column by mid-October and be left with no margin of error. The chances would be slim. No three-loss team has made the CFP, though this schedule is difficult enough to have a case as long as the losses are to top-10 teams. But that’s a big might, and a fourth loss would certainly be disqualifying.

No. 10 Mississippi

Key games:

What needs to happen: There might be a wee bit of interest when LSU comes to Oxford? In any case, Ole Miss probably needs a 2-2 split of the four league games listed to feel safe. Going 1-3 would keep the Rebels in the conversation, but it might be a crowded bubble.

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What could go wrong: In addition to the usual traps, the neutral-site opener against Louisville in Nashville could be costly if the Rebels stumble. As with all the teams in this exercise, any loss total greater than three would reduce the chances of a playoff invitation to near zero.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If Everything Breaks Right: A path to CFP for each Top 10 team