It’s been a difficult season for Rasmus Højlund. Here, we analyse how he could help himself, but also how Manchester United arguably don’t play to his strengths.
Before Rasmus Højlund’s substitution in the 70th minute of Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Everton, Manchester United managed a measly two shots and none on target. After his withdrawal, they recorded seven attempts, got three on target and scored with two.
That obviously doesn’t tell the whole story. United scored a goal out of nothing to suddenly get back into the contest at Goodison Park, giving them the encouragement to push forward with greater intensity in the latter stages. However, the rather dramatic change in their fortunes after the Dane went off felt pertinent even if potentially coincidental.
It’s been a difficult season across the board for United, but few individuals have struggled to the extent of Højlund.
With just two Premier League goals from 21 appearances, Højlund needs to score eight times in United’s final 12 matches of the season just to match his modest – albeit still relatively promising – total of 10 from last term.
Given United’s collective record of 30 goals is better than that of just four teams – three of whom are in the relegation zone – this term, it seems unlikely Højlund will get anywhere near that mark by the end of the campaign. And all signs point to the club looking to bring in another striker in the summer.
Højlund’s difficulties make for a somewhat peculiar case, though. He clearly isn’t hopeless or a lost cause; technically there’s a lot to like about him. He’s at worst a decent finisher, and is extremely quick.
There’s unmistakably the makings of a good all-round striker, but whether we’ll ever get to see that blossom at Old Trafford is another matter.
A report from the Manchester Evening News on Monday claimed United coaching staff are “losing patience” with him. Exactly what that means isn’t clear, but it hardly paints his long-term future at the club in a positive light.
It’s even more difficult to spin a story like that positively when a lot of the reaction to the team’s performance – which was once again unimpressive – centred on Højlund.
Throughout his United career, even when he went on a scoring run around this time last year, a lot of the discourse around Højlund has focused on a perceived lack of service to him. While he obviously can’t be blameless, rarely has that seemed unfair on his supporting cast.
Saturday saw that apparent lack of cohesion reach a hitherto unseen level, with Højlund receiving just four passes from teammates in 70 minutes on the pitch, as highlighted on the BBC’s Match of the Day 2.
Since the start of the season, there have only been three instances of strikers spending more than 45 minutes on the park and receiving fewer than four passes from teammates.
Also, at no point last season did Højlund receive fewer passes during matches he featured for at least 45 minutes.
Højlund’s movement is routinely criticised by supporters, and sometimes with good reason. But the idea that he doesn’t make runs simply isn’t correct.
Among strikers to have played at least 500 minutes in the Premier League this term, Højlund’s 36.8 off-ball runs per 90 is the second most.
Of course, it’s impossible to say whether these runs are good or correct; the quality of most runs will be open to at least a degree of subjectivity, and just because one run might be excellent, it doesn’t mean another simultaneous run by a teammate can’t be even better.
But we can also look at the areas of the pitch those runs relate to, and Højlund does slide down the rankings quite considerably when the focus is on runs into the penalty area.
Only 25% of Højlund’s off-ball runs this term have been into the box, which puts him above just nine strikers and below the average of 28.8%.
Nevertheless, 37.7% of his runs into the box have been targeted by a pass from a colleague, the eighth-highest proportion among the strikers in question. That doesn’t mean the pass necessarily reached him, simply that there was an attempt to find him, which does at least suggest there are efforts to play him in.
But the low proportion of his runs being into the area gives some credence to the idea Højlund’s movement could be better. Again, a “good run” doesn’t have to be one that’s into the area – or any particular zone at all – but the Denmark international is questioned for his presence, or lack thereof, in the penalty area, so there is theoretically a link.
After all, he’s touched the ball 43 times in the opposition’s area this term at a rate of 3.0 per 90 minutes; the list of Premier League players who’ve registered more is vast.
That alone isn’t an inherently bad thing, and it would be reductive to simply say a striker’s sole purpose is to be a threat in the box, but that is where most centre-forwards score the majority of their goals, and he’s a centre-forward who doesn’t score many.
Below, you can see Højlund’s runs into the final third.
Next, we have the same but for Ollie Watkins and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Why them? Because they have tallied the most runs that ultimately ended in the box.
We aren’t trying to say they are necessarily what Højlund should be aspiring to, but one assessment that could be made is that the Dane’s off-ball runs are more predictably made to the very centre of the area, whereas those of Watkins and Calvert-Lewin see greater variation.
Admittedly we can’t pretend to know exactly what Ruben Amorim is asking of Højlund. It’s easy to suggest “this player needs to run into the box more often”, but who’s to say he isn’t making the exact runs his coach wants? While that seems unlikely if Monday’s rumour about the coaches’ impatience is true, but we can’t be sure that they are.
Although Højlund has come in for plenty of criticism, and some justified, he’s also due his fair share of sympathy as his job probably isn’t made any easier by the way United tend to use him.
The sight of United hitting the ball long to him and hoping he either holds play up while pinning the centre-back – or flicking it on – isn’t uncommon, with his 28 hold-ups being the seventh most in the competition this term. And although his record of retaining possession in 53.6% of these situations is above average, even an improvement on Erling Haaland’s 51.6%, it’s fair to say the physical side of the game isn’t his strongest.
He did not win any of his eight duels contested on Saturday, for instance, and that was by no means an isolated scenario; of the 81 forwards to play at least 500 minutes in the Premier League this season, Højlund’s 30.1% success rate in duels is the lowest. And among the same group of players, his 22.1% success rate in aerials is the third lowest (minimum 30 aerials contested).
Former United captain Rio Ferdinand was somewhat justified, then, when urging him to stop “always trying to fight the defender and have contact” at the weekend.
On the other hand, no player has clocked a higher maximum speed (22.3 mph) while making an off-ball run than Højlund, and so it’s perfectly reasonable to wonder whether they’re really playing to his strengths when passing to him rather than ahead of him to run on to.
Of course, there are so many details in a team’s wider setup that impact player suitability and performance, and the fact of the matter is, Højlund is playing in a side that’s struggling to a considerable degree pretty much all over the pitch. It’s entirely understandable that a relatively inexperienced 22-year-old forward might not be thriving in such a context.
There are almost certainly tweaks Højlund can make to his own game to give himself a break, but it’s not all on him.
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