This is the second season of the Big 12 Conference being at 16 teams, after sending a lifeboat towards Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado after the PAC-12 ship caught fire and sank.
Last season was the first year the conference had to navigate around a 16-team conference. The result was absolute chaos at the top. For example, BYU tied for the top record in the conference at 7-2 and reached the highest ranking of any Big 12 team in the AP poll at No. 7, yet did not participate in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Advertisement
That was because they fell victim to a convoluted tiebreaker situation. Iowa State, Arizona State, and Colorado also finished the regular season at 7-2 in the Big 12, like the Cougars. Due to that, the Big 12’s “Multiple-team tiebreaker” rule came into effect. Wikipedia breaks down how the tiebreakers worked out in 2024.
“The (four tied) teams were assessed on their records against common opponents: Kansas, Kansas State, UCF, and Utah. Arizona State was 4-0, BYU 3-1, Iowa State 3-1, and Colorado 2-2 against those four teams, so Arizona State received the #1 seed. The tiebreaker then reset to determine the #2 seed from the other three teams. Again, record against common opponents was used, with Baylor joining the four teams listed above. As all three teams had beaten Baylor, BYU and Iowa State were still ahead of Colorado, which was eliminated. BYU and Iowa State proceeded to the two-team tiebreaker, and since they had the same results against each common opponent, steps 2 and 3 were indecisive. Step 4, assessing Big 12 strength of schedule, resolved the tie in favor of Iowa State: Iowa State’s opponents had a combined record of 36-45 within the conference, while BYU’s had a record of 31-50.”
Overall, BYU missed out on making it to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game because Iowa State’s strength of schedule was slightly better. Something utterly and completely out of BYU’s control.
This season, something similar is brewing.
Advertisement
It’s true, through 10 games, BYU controls their own destiny, like they did last year. The 11th game of the season was their road contest against Arizona State. Had BYU won that game, they would’ve played in Arlington. This year, they travel to Cincinnati for a similar situation.
If BYU beats the Bearcats, while they don’t automatically clinch a berth into the Big 12 title game, they put themselves in the driver’s seat with just a home game against UCF
Lurking just below BYU at 5-2 in the conference are Utah, Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati. Obviously, BYU winning out keeps those teams at arm’s length and sends BYU to Arlington on December 6. However, if BYU were to lose to Cincinnati, it sends in motion another tornado of tiebreaker situations, especially if the rest also win their next game.
That would mean BYU, Cincinnati, Utah, Arizona State, and Houston all will be 6-2 in conference play, with one week to go. As Cougar fans know, BYU beat Utah already this season. But in this scenario, they will have lost to Cincinnati, a team Utah beat. So in that three-way tiebreaker, Utah actually comes out on top given the other tiebreaker rules such as “the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.”
Advertisement
This, while BYU has a much better overall resume than Utah. BYU currently ranks No. 6 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, while Utah sits at 18. According to ESPN, BYU’s strength of schedule ranks 27th, while Utah sits at 46th. Also, of course, BYU won the head-to-head matchup with the Utes in Provo last month.
If BYU were to lose against Cincinnati, it will bring to pass, for a second straight year, a tangled and bewildering set of tiebreakers between as many as five teams for one spot to play against Texas Tech in Arlington and a shot at the College Football Playoff.
The Big 12 Conference needs to fix this.
It’s time for commissioner Brett Yormark to reconsider how the Big 12 decides who plays in the conference championship.
Advertisement
Metrics/Computer Rankings
The first idea involves metrics. Perhaps instead of a series of common opponent comparisons and strength of schedule scrutiny, the conference can involve nationally accepted metrics. The NCAA basketball tournament selection committee uses NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) to help in selecting basketball teams for March Madness and to seed them properly. Perhaps the Big 12 can use a similar tool in selecting their top two teams in the case of a several-team tie.
Football has FPI, SP+, Strength of Record, and Net Efficiency are all universally accepted metrics and rankings for most college football media.
Unfortunately for BYU, some of these would not favor BYU being the team selected from the hypothetical five-team tie. Utah ranks higher than BYU in FPI, SP+, and Net Efficiency. BYU takes the cake in Strength of Record and Simple Rating System.
Advertisement
Divisions
If the conference doesn’t feel comfortable selecting a single metric to use as the tiebreaker, perhaps they could resurrect divisions within the conference.
The NCAA no longer requires divisions in conferences but does not ban them. Most conferences now do not have them. Only one FBS conference still has divisions, the Sun Belt.
With conference realignment and expansion making these conferences so big, perhaps it’s time to bring them back.
What would that look like in the Big 12? Perhaps something like this.
East Division
Baylor
Cincinnati
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
UCF
West Virginia
Advertisement
West Division
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
Houston
TCU
Texas Tech
Utah
Semifinal/Open Week 12
If the Big 12 wanted to avoid divisions, which can cause unbalanced divisions and perhaps leaving it’s second best team out of the title game, they can really think outside the box. And that is with reserving the final weekend of the regular season for either a conference semifinal between the top four teams, or for teams outside the top four, another cross-over game to play a conference opponent that is similarly matched with them.
This would be the most unique approach in college football and would certainly draw eyeballs. Yormark loves thinking outside the box. If the NCAA were to allow such a unique approach, the Big 12 should consider this.
Advertisement
So in this case with the standings currently as they are as of November 18, 2025, that would mean the two semifinal matchups are:
No. 1 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Utah
No. 2 BYU vs. No. 3 Houston
The remaining pairings are below, giving the teams not in contention for the Conference Championship Game a ninth conference game in the final weekend, with an evenly matched team.
(5) Arizona State vs (6) Cincinnati
(7) Arizona vs (8) Kansas State
(9) Iowa State vs (10) TCU
(11) Baylor vs (12) Kansas
(13) West Virginia vs (14) UCF
(15) Colorado vs (16) Oklahoma State
Overall, the best way for BYU to make this all irrelevant? Beat Cincinnati this weekend.
