We’re beyond the midpoint of the 2025 season and there’s not a conference in the country that has a clear-cut front-runner.
There are 60 FBS schools with no more than one conference loss, and ESPN’s FPI metric gives 29 of them at least a 10% chance of winning their league.
It’s not even just the sheer volume of contenders, it’s the surprising teams that are in the mix (hello, Virginia, Cincinnati and Vanderbilt).
All of that means we’re probably in for one of the wildest Novembers in recent memory, with every conference up for grabs and the playoff picture as murky as ever. Good luck with all that, committee. — David Hale
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Who’s looking like a conference title contender?
ACC: Take seven teams. Throw them into a hat. Shake it up. Pull out a name. There’s your ACC champion! OK, it’s not exactly that chaotic, but it certainly feels that way.
The current favorite to win the conference, according to FPI, is Georgia Tech — a team that is undefeated but hasn’t played a complete football game yet. The Yellow Jackets have trailed in the second half in three of their seven wins and have lost the turnover battle four times.
Virginia has played with fire even more than Georgia Techs. The Cavaliers have won three straight games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter, including two that went to overtime.
Louisville trailed Pitt by double digits in the second half, then lost to Virginia after surrendering two defensive touchdowns — but the Cardinals also have a win over Miami, which puts them in prime position to make a run.
The Hurricanes are unquestionably the most talented team in the ACC, but a Week 8 loss to Louisville exposed some glaring weaknesses in the run game, a lack of a perimeter threat in the passing game, and saw Carson Beck revert to the worst of his Georgia era when trying to force things.
Then there’s SMU, which came within a whisker of winning the conference last year, and the Mustangs still haven’t lost a regular-season ACC contest since joining the league.
Add in Duke and Pitt, who still have at least a puncher’s chance, and the race to Charlotte for the ACC championship game remains entirely up in the air without a clear-cut favorite to win it all.
Perhaps the bigger takeaway is that, of all the teams in the mix, Florida State and Clemson aren’t among them.
The ACC has had its share of wildness over the years — though typically reserved to the lesser Coastal Division back in the days of divisional play — but 2025 might be the most chaotic yet. — Hale
Big Ten: Two teams are barreling toward Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship on Dec. 6. One has played there often, but not since 2020, and not before a full crowd since 2019. The other is the Big Ten school located closest to the stadium, but mostly an afterthought as a title hopeful until coach Curt Cignetti came to town.
Ohio State and Indiana are the top two ranked teams in the country, and the top contenders for the Big Ten title. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers do not meet during the regular season. Indiana has zero ranked opponents left on its schedule and could post its first 12-0 regular season after recording its first 10-0 start just last season. Ohio State will finish with No. 25 Michigan, which, in case you’ve been stranded on an deserted island, has won four consecutive games against coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes.
Both Ohio State and Indiana have beaten No. 23 Illinois, and both squads also face preseason national title contender Penn State, which is shockingly 0-4 in Big Ten play and looking for a new coach.
No. 6 Oregon Ducks can still have a say, although the Ducks have lost the tiebreaker to Indiana and still face trips to Iowa and Washington. Six other teams have only one conference loss, including Michigan, so things could get interesting if Ohio State and Indiana start to stumble. But it would be a surprise if the league doesn’t come down to the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. — Adam Rittenberg
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Big 12: Eight Big 12 teams are currently projected to finish 8-4 or better according to FPI, which should make for a ton of last-minute drama in a conference race that came down to tiebreakers last season amid a four-way tie atop the standings.
Texas Tech was dominant through its 6-0 start, winning every game by 24 points or more, until its road loss at Arizona State. The Red Raiders need to get senior quarterback Behren Morton back and healthy in time for their big showdown with BYU on Nov. 8.
BYU is off to another impressive 7-0 start but has arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the conference, including trips to Iowa State, Texas Tech and Cincinnati.
Cincinnati emerged as a surprise contender after knocking off Iowa State but still must face BYU plus road tests at Utah and TCU. If Utah takes down Cincinnati, there’s a real path to 10-2 with FPI currently giving the Utes a 17% chance of winning out.
Arizona State gets Houston and Iowa State up next. Coach Kenny Dillingham has to like how the rest of the schedule sets up for the Sun Devils if they can keep Sam Leavitt, Jordyn Tyson, Prince Dorbah and the rest of their stars healthy. Houston is the 6-1 team that nobody saw coming. The Cougars’ lone loss was to Texas Tech, and they can make a major statement this week with an upset in Tempe.
Iowa State lost two in a row after rising as high as No. 14 in the AP poll but can get right back in the race with a win over BYU on Saturday. And don’t count out TCU, which will have a chance to play spoiler against a November slate of Iowa State, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati. — Max Olson
SEC: With a whopping 10 SEC teams ranked in the AP Top 25 poll this week, it’s anyone’s guess as to which two will be left standing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama and No. 5 Georgia currently seem like the teams to beat.
Or maybe not.
The Aggies looked like perhaps the most complete team in the league until their defense struggled in a 45-42 win at Arkansas last week. Texas A&M faces one of the most demanding schedules the rest of the way with road games at LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Alabama has won six games in a row since falling 31-17 at Florida State in its opener. The Crimson Tide have two games left against ranked opponents — LSU and Oklahoma at home. They’ll play at Auburn in the Iron Bowl, in which anything can happen.
Georgia has already played five SEC gamess and has only one true road game remaining — at Mississippi State on Nov. 8. The Bulldogs play rival Florida in Jacksonville the week before and host Texas the week after.
No. 8 Ole Miss is still very much in the SEC title hunt, even after losing 43-35 at Georgia last week. The Rebels will have to survive road games at Oklahoma on Saturday and at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28.
No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 13 Oklahoma, No. 15 Missouri and No. 22 Texas also have only one loss in SEC play.
The Commodores host Missouri on Saturday and have road games left at Texas and Tennessee. That’s a difficult stretch, but who’s going to doubt quarterback Diego Pavia & Co. at this point?
Oklahoma leads the SEC in scoring defense (9.4 points), run defense (80.4 yards) and total defense (213 yards). Can the Sooners get quarterback John Mateer and the offense back on track? They’ll have to because each of their final five games are against ranked opponents, including trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
Missouri has three road games left in SEC play (at Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Arkansas). Texas is still a mess on offense, and it will have to get things going before it plays three games against ranked foes: Vanderbilt (home), Georgia (road) and Texas A&M (home).
There’s plenty of parity in the SEC, and the conference title race figures to be even tighter when the league goes to a nine-game SEC schedule in 2026. — Mark Schlabach
How could South Florida-Memphis affect the race for the G5 playoff spot?
What seems fairly clear heading into Week 9 is that the champion of the American Conference will land the Group of 5’s CFP spot. What’s less clear is what teams will find their way into the league’s title game. The South Florida-Memphis game should provide some clarity, although the clash lost a bit of zest after Memphis dropped its first game last week to a UAB team that had fired its coach.
Memphis has a major scheduling benefit the rest of the way as it hosts not only No. 18 South Florida, but 6-1 Tulane on Nov. 7 and undefeated Navy on Nov. 27. The Tigers have won 10 straight at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, and have 64 home wins since 2014, trailing only Alabama (72), Clemson (70) and Ohio State (69) among FBS teams.
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But don’t expect South Florida to be intimidated. Coach Alex Golesh’s team already has road wins against Florida and North Texas, handing the Mean Green their first loss with a 63-36 thrashing on Oct. 10. South Florida has the best profile for CFP selection among Group of 5 teams, although Tulane, which beat Northwestern and Duke, also has a case. Tulane and South Florida don’t play each other during the regular season, and South Florida also visits Navy on Nov. 15.
Bottom line: the great American race (to a CFP berth) is wild, and much of it goes through Memphis, beginning this weekend. — Rittenberg
Biggest things that need to happen in each matchup
Texas A&M-LSU: For LSU, the Tigers’ biggest challenge is corralling the Aggies’ dynamic receivers, KC Concepcion and Mario Craver while keeping A&M quarterback Marcel Reed from also making plays with his feet. The Tigers don’t want to get in a high-scoring game with their offensive struggles (they currently are 85th in scoring offense), and the Aggies will be looking to continue the formula that has worked for most of the season: get a lead, then wear out the defense with the offensive line and a deep pool of running backs. LSU’s defense, meanwhile, which ranks 15th in defensive passing efficiency, picked off Florida’s DJ Lagway five times, played keep-away and won the field-position game in a win against a dynamic quarterback. Reed will have to make smart decisions and not try to do too much. If the Aggies can manage that, they can stay undefeated and continue this run. But a night game in Baton Rouge will test the nerves of any opponent. — Dave Wilson
UCLA-Indiana: Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is doing his best to make sure the Hoosiers do not overlook a red-hot UCLA team, going as far as to describe the Bruins as being undefeated at 3-0 and not their actual 3-4 record. While interim head coach Tim Skipper does have the Bruins rolling, this is their toughest challenge yet as they head to Bloomington to face Cignetti’s squad, which has a case for being the best team in the country this season. UCLA’s defense has dominated its past two opponents — Maryland and Michigan State — allowing a single touchdown to each of them, yet both of those teams rank in the bottom quarter of the country in total offense. The Bruins will have their hands full Saturday as the Hoosiers employ one of the five best offensive units in the sport and boast a potential Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. If there’s a silver lining for Skipper’s team, it’s that defending the pass is something it does quite well (25th nationally). Controlling the tempo of this game will be key; if quarterback Nico Iamaleava and UCLA’s running backs can produce long, scoring drives against a top-five defense and limit Indiana’s offense possessions, the Bruins might have a chance to pull off their most stunning upset yet. — Paolo Uggetti
Missouri-Vanderbilt: Coming into this game, Missouri and Vanderbilt each rank top 15 nationally in run defense, defensive pressure rate and tackle for loss yardage. With that, Saturday’s matchup might swing on whichever team’s offense holds up better in a battle between two of the country’s most aggressive and dominant front-seven units. Auburn and Alabama found ways to slow down Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy and the program’s SEC-leading rushing attack (244.9 YPG) earlier this month. If the Commodores — who have yet to give up more than 146 rushing yards in a game this fall — can contain Missouri on the ground, they’ll be able to keep the Tigers in long-yardage situations and bring the kind of pressure that has tended to disrupt Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula this fall. Vanderbilt has the ultimate X-factor in Heisman hopeful Diego Pavia, who took full advantage of a weak LSU pass rush in Week 8, accounting for three touchdowns in the Commodores’ 31-24 win over the Tigers last weekend. Led by defensive ends Zion Young and Damon Wilson II, a Missouri front seven that’s blowing up opposing backfields more frequently (49.4% pressure rate) than all but three defenses nationally will present a much tougher proposition. Any recipe for a Tigers victory in Nashville begins with limiting Pavia on the ground and keeping a lid on one of college football’s most dynamic playmakers. — Eli Lederman
Quotes of the week
“It’s phenomenal prep. Film study of signals, I just tell you how it is and I think they do a great job of that,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said of Oklahoma coach Brent Venables and the Sooners’ success on defense. “If you study people really well and then you have enough confidence as a coach to go after those, that’s what [Venables] does. It seems like they’ve got a really good beat on the plays that are coming when they’re called and they do a great job of taking those away. You look at the Auburn game. I told Hugh [Freeze] after the game watching it he may want to switch signals. It looks like they have the plays. The middle safety is running down to steal slants, which is very abnormal.”
“I guess coming from Lane, I take it as a compliment,” Venables responded during his weekly radio show. “Like, he must have watched our guys be really prepared, because that’s who they are, man. They’re relentless.”
“I am still trying to identify weaknesses. Like, it is crazy how disciplined they are. Coach [Curt] Cignetti does a great job with those guys,” UCLA interim coach Tim Skipper said of Indiana.
“By tough time, you mean we’ve never done it?” Aggies coach Mike Elko said when asked about Texas A&M’s 0-6 record at LSU’s Tiger Stadium since joining the SEC.
“The video we posted — that wasn’t even me, that was AI,” Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham said of a video of him doing the worm following the Sun Devils’ Week 8 win over Texas Tech. “I don’t even know what it real … that would be awesome if I could do the worm like that. That’d be pretty cool. I’m not quite that cool. But AI makes me look cool.”
“I leaned into throwing tortillas at the beginning of the football season,” Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt said Monday while announcing that the school would no longer permit the Red Raiders’ decades-old tradition. “Now I must ask everyone to stop.”
