Jackson Arnold returns to Norman as Auburn visits Oklahoma in Week 4. Arnold says he is just focused on doing his job as he returns to the team that recruited him out of high school. As both teams open SEC play and put perfect records on the line, it is time to make three bold predictions on the game.
Auburn hits the road with a perfect 3-0 record on the year. This is not the Tigers’ first road game of the year, as the team opened up on the road against Baylor. After some early game struggles, Auburn was able to take control of the tilt. The team led by seven at the end of the first half, and went on to win the game 38-24. Over the next two weeks, Auburn dominated two groups of five opponents. First, it was a 42-3 defeat of Ball State, followed by a 31-15 win over South Alabama.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is also 3-0 on the season. After dismantling Illinois State in Week 1, the team hosted Michigan in Week 2, defeating the Wolverines 24-13. Last week, the Sooners hit the road to face Temple. It was once again domination, as Oklahoma took a 42-3 win over Temple. These two programs have faced each other three times. Oklahoma won the 1972 and 2017 Sugar Bowl over Auburn, and then won in the regular season 27-21 last year.
John Mateer shows why he is a Heisman frontrunner
Quarterback John Mateer is now one of the front-runners to win the Heisman, and for good reason. The transfer from Washington State has completed 71 of 105 passes for 944 yards and five touchdowns. Further, he has run for 161 yards and four scores. He has been intercepted three times, though, and sacked three times as well.
The Auburn defense has been solid overall this year, sitting 19th in the nation in opponent points per game while also 25th in opponent yards per game. The pass defense has not been as strong. Auburn is 59th in the nation in opponent passing yards per game.
Mateer is going to be facing a major challenge in this game. Auburn has the 12th-ranked sack percentage in FBS. Keldric Faulk is one of the best edge rushers in the nation, and his presence has already allowed Keyron Crawford to get three sacks on the other side of the line. Moreover, the Sooners have announced center Troy Everett is out for the season. Regardless, Mateer has consistently shown he can overcome adversity and will do the same in this game.
Jackson Arnold makes Oklahoma have some regrets
Arnold was recruited by Oklahoma, enrolling in January 2023 as an early enrollee. In the 2023 season, Arnold played in six games before being named the starting quarterback for the Alamo Bowl. He would then play in 10 games, making nine starts for the Sooners in 2024. That season, he passed for 1,421 yards and 12 touchdowns, with three interceptions. Regardless, he entered the transfer portal and went to Auburn.
Now, Arnold prepares for his return, and he is going to make Oklahoma regret letting him walk. This year, he has completed 48 of 69 passes for 501 yards and four touchdowns. He has yet to be intercepted, but has lost 43 yards on six sacks this year. The legs of Arnold have been great. Removing sack yardage adjustment, Arnold has run 29 times for 235 yards and four touchdowns. That gives him 8.1 yards per carry this season.
The Oklahoma defense has been solid against the pass, sitting fifth in the nation in opponent passing yards per game. Still, the defense has not been as strong against the run. Auburn is 12th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and a major part of that has been the ground game of Arnold. The quarterback will make some plays with his arm, but it will be his legs that steal the show.
Turnovers decide the game
Oklahoma has been able to get away with turnovers this year. The Sooners are currently 113th in the nation in turnover margin this year. To begin with, the Sooners’ defense has yet to force a turnover this season. In Week 1, Oklahoma turned over the ball twice, but it led to just three points for Illinois State.
Against Michigan, it was once again two turnovers, but they led to just three points by the opponent. Oklahoma turned over the ball once against Temple, leading to the only three points Temple scored in the game.
Meanwhile, Auburn is 40th in the nation in turnover margin per game and has turned over the ball once this year. The team has also forced three turnovers this year, leading to one touchdown. If Oklahoma turns over the ball, Auburn is going to make them pay. With the pressure that will be on Mateer in this game, a turnover may occur.
At the time of writing, the odds provided by FanDuel have Oklahoma as a 6.5-point favorite. Turnovers and the play of Arnold are going to keep this game tight, as Auburn covers, and could get the outright upset.
