The last two regular seasons for the Oregon Ducks have largely gone according to plan, as the team has a 23-1 record and just a lone loss to the eventual national champion Indiana Hoosiers. Despite the defeat, the Ducks still made up ground, winning several tough November contests to claim the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Per CBS Sports’ recent article on best- and worst-case scenarios for every top 25 squad, an 11-1 record — while going 8-1 in Big Ten play — is once again considered Oregon’s best-case scenario during the 2026 season.
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“The Ducks should be commended for two of three non-conference matchups coming against Boise State and Oklahoma State, two squads we’re expecting to reach bowl eligibility this fall,” CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford wrote. “The Big Ten opener is in Los Angeles against Lincoln Riley, then there are three contests with ranked opponents in November. Dante Moore will have another terrific season in this scenario, leading to the program’s third straight CFP berth.”
For a team with so much talent, it’s an interesting choice that one loss would be the best-case scenario rather than an undefeated season, especially with Oregon’s No. 4 ranking in CBS Sports’ poll.
It’s very possible that comes down to the schedule however, as the Ducks will have road tests against Oklahoma State, USC and Ohio State while hosting Michigan and Washington late in the season. It’s not an easy road, with one slip-up being predicted by Crawford as the best road. After all, they’d still all but be guaranteed a spot in the CFP if they do so, considering last season’s 11-1 record and No. 5 seed.
Meanwhile, the worst-case scenario is much, much bleaker than one may think. Crawford has the Ducks’ record as 8-4 and going 6-3 in the Big Ten if that plays out — a potentially massive disappointment and one of the more surprising downturns in modern college football.
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“Dan Lanning has never lost more than two conference games in his four seasons as Oregon’s coach, but let’s say the coordinator departures from his 2026 staff come back to haunt the Ducks,” Crawford wrote. “Maybe Oklahoma State — with an entirely new team under Eric Morris — shocks Oregon in Stillwater early before the Ducks go 1-3 against the likes of USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington. Is it really that far-fetched?”
Far-fetched? Yes. Possible? To each their own opinion, but it’s hard to see the Dante Moore-led Ducks falling to three of USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington. The matchups against the Wolverines and Huskies will be in the comforts of Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have beaten USC repeatedly and they took down Ohio State in each of their last two regular-season meetings.
CBS Sports’ exercise does offer an interesting viewpoint of the different ways that the 2026 season may play out, but the argument can be made that the only way that Oregon falters so badly that they lose four games is if injuries plague the roster at numerous positions. And that’s on the table in the game of football, but it’s much easier to game it out and see the Ducks finish with an 11-1 record than the former — but until it all plays out, we’ll have to wait and see.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: CBS Sports’ best- and worst-case scenarios for the Ducks in 2026
