College football preseason top-25 rankings for 2026: Man vs. Machine

With less than 90 days until college football returns, kickoff feels simultaneously so close yet so far away.

Our Stew Mandel unveiled the latest edition of his preseason top 25 on Monday, but we decided to take another crack at it from a different perspective: Man vs. Machine.

Sam Khan Jr., who covers college football roster construction and the transfer portal, and Austin Mock, our analytics expert, each ranked their own post-spring top 25 to compare. One originates from roster talent evaluation and intel, the other from a statistical projection model.

Whose top 25 do you like better? Here’s a look at each, starting with Sam’s.

1. Indiana

The reigning champs still have plenty of talent thanks to a handful of key returnees and the No. 2 transfer portal class. No returning FBS QB has thrown for more yards in the past three seasons than Josh Hoover when he was at TCU. Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh should form a productive receiving duo, and the return of All-America tackle Carter Smith to anchor an experienced front is huge. So is having a veteran defensive front, led by Tyrique Tucker and transfer Tobi Osunsanmi.

2. Ohio State

Once again, the Buckeyes roster is loaded. Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson are supported by a big, experienced offensive line. The defense lost some major contributors to the NFL Draft, but the staff did well to restock the cupboard out of the portal, and there’s plenty of young rising talent ready to step in.

3. Oregon

Getting Dante Moore back for another year was critical, but it’s the defensive front that should set the tone for this group. Matayo Uiagalelei, Bear Alexander, A’Mauri Washington and Teitum Tuioti form one of the most formidable D-lines in the country.

4. Texas

This might be the most star-studded team in the land. Four players — Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby — landed in the top 12 of Dane Brugler’s early 2027 NFL mock draft. That doesn’t include two standout running backs who transferred in (Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown), another stud tackle (Melvin Siani) and a two-time All-ACC linebacker (Rasheem Biles).

5. Miami

The collection of offensive skill talent is impressive, led by transfer QB Darian Mensah, returning running back Mark Fletcher and do-it-all wide receiver Malachi Toney. The offensive line is being rebuilt after losing four starters, but Mario Cristobal and position coach Alex Mirabal deserve the benefit of the doubt. Getting Damon Wilson II out of the portal helps ease the loss of Miami’s dynamic edge rusher duo from a year ago, and there’s plenty of experience at the second and third levels of the defense.

6. Notre Dame

The defense should again be one of the nation’s best, with experience and talent at all three levels. Replacing the stud running back duo won’t be easy, but an even-better CJ Carr, an improved receiving corps and a solid O-line should ease that task.

7. Georgia

If it’s possible to sleep on an All-SEC quarterback, it feels like that’s happened to Gunner Stockton this offseason. Stockton had a terrific debut as a starter last year and should be even better this season. Key returnees at the skill positions and offensive line should help. The big question for the Dawgs: Will the pass rush be better after finishing last in the SEC in pressure rate in 2025?

8. Ole Miss

Having Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy back is a good start. On defense, though the Rebels lost a star in Princewill Umanmielen, they responded by signing quality players out of the portal: linebackers Keaton Thomas and Luke Ferrelli and defensive backs Jay Crawford and Edwin Joseph, among others. And there’s plenty of returning talent, especially on defense, led by Suntarine Perkins.

9. Oklahoma

There’s a lot to like about the Oklahoma roster. GM Jim Nagy made quality additions to the passing game around John Mateer and shored up the O-line with E’Marion Harris at right tackle. The defense is again athletic and talented, with a deep linebacker corps. If Mateer can play at the level he did in 2025 pre-injury, the Sooners will be cooking.

10. Texas Tech

Even without Brendan Sorsby, the Red Raiders should be the Big 12 title favorites because of the talent everywhere else. They reloaded on the defensive line and have one of the best linebacker duos in the country in Ben Roberts and Kansas State transfer Austin Romaine. Tech is stacked at running back. The health of quarterback Will Hammond, who was Behren Morton’s heir apparent until an ACL injury, is the key question on offense.

11. Texas A&M

The Aggies did an excellent job of filling needs, adding Isaiah Horton at receiver, four O-linemen with SEC starting experience and Anto Saka and Ray Coney in the defensive front seven. Combine those additions with talented returnees (quarterback Marcel Reed, wide receiver Mario Craver and defensive back Marcus Ratcliffe lead the way), and the Aggies have the makings of another solid team.

12. USC

Having one of the nation’s most productive QBs back (Jayden Maiava) along with an experienced offensive line is a good foundation. Add to that some returning backs, an impact transfer receiver (Terrell Anderson) and an intriguing freshman tight end (Mark Bowman), and the Trojans look enticing. What the defense looks like under new coordinator Gary Patterson — who last was a full-time coach in 2021 — provides the most intrigue.

13. LSU

The Tigers had the No. 1 transfer class on the strength of high-end impact additions like Sam Leavitt, Jordan Seaton and Princewill Umanmielen. Leavitt’s continued recovery from foot surgery is worth watching, but when healthy, he’s a big-time playmaker, and there’s no shortage of weapons around him. Defensively, the front seven has some real juice, and the addition of safety transfer Ty Benefield should be a boon to the secondary.

14. Washington

The Huskies had to fill some vacancies on offense, but they return quarterback Demond Williams and four starters along the offensive line. True freshman Kodi Greene, a five-star recruit, appears ready to start Day 1 at left tackle to fill out the front. On defense, the Huskies return their two leading tacklers, safety Alex McLaughlin and linebacker Xe’ree Alexander, their TFL leader, Jacob Lane, and an experienced middle linebacker in Jacob Manu, a one-time all-conference pick who’s fully healthy after two injury-shortened seasons.

15. BYU

The Cougars return one of the nation’s most productive backs (LJ Martin) and a young, talented quarterback (Bear Bachmeier) who won the starting job as a true freshman despite arriving after spring football. Tight end Walker Lyons, a transfer from USC, is an intriguing addition, and the Cougars did a good job of plugging holes on the O-line. The defense should be one of the Big 12’s better units once again.

16. Michigan

After the success he had with Devon Dampier at Utah, what can OC Jason Beck do with a more prototypical QB talent like Bryce Underwood? The 1-2 punch of Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter in the backfield provides strong support, and there’s a talented receiving corps, too. Defensively, getting John Henry Daley and Smith Snowden to follow Kyle Whittingham from Utah was huge.

17. Missouri

If QB Austin Simmons can realize the potential so many have envisioned, this could be a proficient offense, but there are some questions. The availability of Ahmad Hardy, who is recovering from a gunshot wound, is a key part of the equation (Hardy, the SEC’s leading rusher in 2025, aims to be back this season). Josh Atkins, Missouri’s talented transfer tackle who was slated to start opposite returnee Cayden Green, could also miss some time with an injury suffered this spring. But there’s still solid talent across the board on this roster.

18. Houston

The Cougars retained their two best players (quarterback Conner Weigman, wide receiver Amare Thomas) and did a sneaky good job of finding fits in the portal to add to a team that went 10-3 last year. Guard Shadre Hurst leads a retooled O-line, tight end Patrick Overmyer should help fill the void left by draft pick Tanner Koziol and Jalen Mayo should be a Day 1 starter at corner. A pair of former Oregon Ducks — linebacker Ashton Porter and running back Makhi Hughes — could thrive in bigger roles.

19. Louisville

Retaining leading rusher Isaac Brown and sack leader Clev Lubin were huge wins for the Cardinals, and they didn’t stop there. They signed the 14th-ranked portal class that includes impact offensive additions such as quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, wide receiver Tre Richardson and tight end Brody Foley. They also have a lot of experience on defense to lean on.

20. Alabama

There’s a lot of talent on this roster, but a lot of questions, too. There will be a new offensive backfield and several new faces on the offensive line after the Tide hit that position hard in the transfer portal. The defense feels like a safer bet here, with its athletic front seven and experienced secondary. How quickly the O-line jells and Keelon Russell or Austin Mack develops at QB will tell the tale of the Tide’s season.

21. SMU

The Mustangs should put up plenty of points with third-year starting quarterback Kevin Jennings leading the way and a retooled supporting cast led by Cal running back transfer Kendrick Raphael. SMU did a solid job in the portal on defense to compensate for losses of its top five leaders in tackles for loss and four of its top six tacklers overall. How well that goes will determine the team’s ability to contend in the ACC.

22. TCU

The Horned Frogs retained a good bit from their second straight nine-win team … except for at quarterback, where quarterback Josh Hoover departed. The reviews on Harvard transfer Jaden Craig have been strong, though, and he’ll have an experienced offensive line in front of him and a veteran defense full of players who have produced.

23. Penn State

Yes, the Nittany Lions added a ton of Iowa State players who followed Matt Campbell (23 to be exact), and many of those — Rocco Becht, Benjamin Brahmer, Carson Hansen, Caleb Bacon, Jeremiah Cooper — should play key roles. But key additions elsewhere (Ohio State running back James Peoples, Texas State offensive lineman Brock Riker) blended with the returning talent make for what should be a competitive mix in Year 1 for Campbell.

24. Oklahoma State

Why would a team that went 1-11 last year and hasn’t won a conference game in two years appear in a preseason top 25? Because the Cowboys inherited the nucleus of what was a top-25 team last year. Drew Mestemaker (the FBS’ leading passer in 2025), Caleb Hawkins (sixth-leading rusher) and Wyatt Young (seventh-leading receiver) headline a group of 16 former North Texas players who followed Eric Morris to Oklahoma State and are among the 80-plus new players in Stillwater. Could we see the Pokes do in 2026 what Indiana did in 2024?

25. South Carolina

From a pure physical talent standpoint, there aren’t many rosters that look better than this one, with guys like LaNorris Sellers, Dylan Stewart, Nyck Harbor and Jacarrius Peak leading the way. But a woeful showing on the offensive line last year helped doom the Gamecocks, who went 4-8 overall and 1-7 in the SEC. Credit them for going heavy in the portal to attack that deficiency, led by the acquisition of Peak, one of seven O-linemen with Division I experience signed.

Teams that just missed the cut: Tennessee, Auburn, Cal, Arizona, Florida

Machine’s post-spring Top 25

Ohio State
Oregon
Notre Dame
Texas
Georgia
Indiana
Texas A&M
Miami
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU
Oklahoma
Michigan
Texas Tech
USC
Tennessee
Washington
Florida
Missouri
South Carolina
Penn State
Auburn
SMU
Clemson
BYU

Let’s dive into the biggest differences between the two sets of rankings and why.

Texas A&M (Man: 11th, Machine: 7th)

Mock: Despite the horrid end to the season, Texas A&M returns talent on both sides of the ball (though I am concerned about reloading in the trenches) from a team that was in my top 10 at the end of last year and finished second in opponent-adjusted Net EPA per play. Combine that with consistent success with high school recruiting and in the transfer portal and you get a firm top-10 team in 2026.

Khan: Both lines of scrimmage are my biggest concerns here. I thought the Aggies did as good a job as one could expect filling the voids, but I just don’t know that the talent level is the same on both sides as it was a year ago.

Alabama (Man: 20th, Machine: 9th)

Mock: Similar to Texas A&M, Alabama ended the season trending poorly despite winning a College Football Playoff game. Well, I guess I’m here to buy low. Kalen DeBoer finds ways to win football games, and yes, they lost a first-round quarterback in Ty Simpson, but they should reload with talent at the position between Austin Mack or Keelon Russell and have even higher upside at the position.

Khan: I’m very high on Russell and think he will be a star. But I wish they had landed a proven back in the portal (they let Hollywood Smothers slip away). And even with the portal additions, I’m wait-and-see on the offensive line.

BYU (Man: 15th, Machine: 25th)

Mock: BYU returns a ton on defense, and Bear Bachmeier returning should help the offense, but my model is low on the Big 12. BYU didn’t look like it belonged on the field with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game last year, and then Texas Tech got blanked by Oregon in the CFP. It’s hard for me to justify the Cougars being much higher than this.

Khan: I think Bachmeier will make a big jump. Remember, he was on campus for only a few months before he took the job. Having a full offseason will help. The defense should be good again, and LJ Martin is a star. They do have a tough schedule, though.

Houston (Man: 18th, Machine: Unranked)

Mock: I’m a big Willie Fritz fan, but I can’t get on the top-25 team bandwagon. Yes, they made a big jump last year (Fritz is a really good football coach), but they were only 47th in adjusted Net EPA per play. Maybe Fritz can get even more out of Conner Weigman, and I do believe the offense will be quite good, but somewhere just outside of the top 25 feels more realistic.

Khan: This is 100 percent a bet on Fritz squeezing as much as he can out of this team. I did not see them winning 10 last year and I think they did a bang-up job in retention, recruiting and in the portal this offseason. The arrow points up for the Coogs, and I could see them sneaking into the Big 12 title game, potentially.

Oklahoma State (Man: 24th, Machine: Unranked)

Mock: Man, this one is tough. I believe Eric Morris is a good coach and one of the better offensive minds in football, but I’m going to pump the brakes here as I don’t think North Texas was as impressive as we thought last year. The two best teams the Mean Green faced last year, South Florida and Tulane, they lost to by double digits. Sure, Oklahoma State should have more talent, but all the relevant metrics that my model incorporates had them as a team ranked in the 50s. Maybe Drew Mestemaker is a first-round pick, and then I’ll be wildly wrong, but if he’s not that, I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re ranked around 40th or so.

Khan: I may be overly optimistic, but that’s how strongly I feel about Mestemaker’s talent. I think he’s special, and having so much of his supporting cast with him should make the step up to the Big 12 smoother. He does have to be better under pressure — he turned the ball over a lot in those USF and Tulane losses.

Tennessee (Man: Unranked, Machine: 16th)

Mock: Admittedly, this feels a bit high considering the total unknown at the quarterback position, but Josh Heupel has the track record to make me feel a little better about that. Honestly, the main reason for being bullish is the defensive improvement. They brought in Jim Knowles as their defensive coordinator, and he brought a few former Penn State defenders with him to ease the transition. Maybe the offense takes a step back, but I expect the defense to take a step forward and maybe a substantial one — though I’d like more information on Chaz Coleman’s situation to feel better about this one.

Khan: The quarterback and Coleman situations are what gave me pause here. I think there’s a ton of talent around the rest of the roster, and Heupel’s offense lends itself to a young quarterback succeeding, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Faizon Brandon or George MacIntyre thrive. But I’m wait-and-see for now.