Draft guru’s Arch Manning assessment should concern NFL teams

Entering the season, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning was hailed as a No. 1 pick candidate in the 2026 NFL Draft. Oh, how things have changed after just two games. On Wednesday, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. — who has been covering the draft for the network since 1984 — said the first-year starter should stay in school.

Mel Kiper Jr. explains why Arch Manning isn’t pro-ready

“I’m not coming out after one season,” Kiper said on “First Draft.” “History tells us you shouldn’t. I’d want to go through a year where he’s the guy, and you see that alpha, you see the guy, I’ve got a command of the offense, got a command of college football. He’s trying to figure it out, and if you’re trying to figure it out in college, you’re not going to the NFL in April. Forget about it. He’s back at Texas for next season.” 

QBs who start one year in college generally flop in the NFL. The Chicago Bears took North Carolina QB Mitchell Trubisky with pick No. 2 in the 2017 draft. He posted a slightly below-average 87.2 passer rating in four seasons with the Bears and is now a Buffalo Bills backup. 

More importantly, Manning (6-foot-4, 219 pounds) doesn’t look No. 1 pick-worthy. The 21-year-old hasn’t been horrendous. Through two starts against Ohio State and San Jose State, he has completed 36-of-60 passes (60 percent) for 465 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. 

However, he’s not on pace to produce similar numbers as other QBs who went first overall. 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward (now with the Tennessee Titans) completed 305-of-454 passes (67.2 percent) for 4,313 yards, 39 TDs and seven interceptions in 13 games during his final season at Miami. 

2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams (now with the Bears) completed 266-of-388 passes (68.6 percent) for 3,633 yards, 30 TDs and five interceptions in 12 games in his final season at USC. He also won the 2022 Heisman Trophy. 

Manning — the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli — could still reach his potential. But it will take time. That’s why other draft experts should listen to Kiper and take him off their big boards for 2026.