No. 3 Houston will travel to No. 3 Iowa State for a Top 25 Big 12 matchup tonight at 8:00 p.m. CT on ESPN. The Cougars (23-2, 11-1 Big 12) have won six in a row, including a 78-64 win over Kansas State on Saturday, which turned out to be the final game of Jerome Tang’s career with the Wildcats. Meantime, the Cyclones (22-3, 9-3) crushed Kansas on Saturday 74-56, to bounce back from their mid-week loss to TCU. Here’s a preview, key storylines and a prediction to get you ready for Big Monday’s game in Ames, Iowa.
Houston vs. Iowa State Odds
Iowa State opened up as a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under point total coming in at 133.5. And as we approach tip off on Monday night, the Cyclones are holding as a 2.5-point favorite, while the over/under has moved up to 135.5 or 136 in most sports books.
Key Storyline: The Turnover Margin
These teams are 1-2 in the Big 12 Conference in turnover margin, with Houston at No. 1 in the league at +6.48 per game, and Iowa State at +4.56 per game. They are both also the top two teams in the Assist/Turnover ratio in the Big 12. Which team wins the turnover margin on Big Monday and who has better ball movement? That will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.
Match Up to Watch: Can Iowa State Hit Its Threes?
The Iowa State Cyclones are the best in the Big 12 Conference, hitting 39.8% from three-point range. However, Houston is Top 3 in three-point defense. Which one gives? Iowa State knocked down 37% from downtown in their win over Kansas on Saturday. This came after they made just 22% of their three-pointers in a loss to TCU last week. If Houston can keep the Cyclones in check from deep, they will win the game.
Prediction: Houston 60, Iowa State 59
Both of these teams rank in the Top 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency for KenPom. Both are Top 20 in the adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom. This is as good of a match up as it gets, but I think this comes down to Houston making its free throws in a close game. The Cougars are the best free throw shooting team in the Big 12, and Iowa State is the worst. In a close, low-scoring game, that will make a difference. Also, Houston’s perimeter defense will force Iowa State into turnovers and more challenges from outside than they’ve dealt with most of the season. After high emotions on Saturday vs. Kansas for the Cyclones, Houston wears down Iowa State as the game goes along and wins a nailbiter in Ames.
