While we are just days removed from the 2025 college football season ending, there is already a nightmare scenario facing the Big 12, and specifically the BYU Cougars, as we look ahead to the 2026 college football season. And it ties directly to some of the rule changes made in the College Football Playoff.
Changes to the 2026 College Football Playoff vs. 2025
We know that automatic bids will be given to each Power 4 champion, and that Notre Dame, should they be ranked in the Top 12 of the final AP Poll, is still guaranteed an at-large bid in 2026. Also, the highest-ranked Group of 6 team will also make the College Football Playoff, which now includes the new-look Pac-12.
So if we had applied those rules to this past season, both ACC Champion Duke and Notre Dame would have been in the College Football Playoff. And that means No. 10 Miami, who reached the National Championship Game, would have not made the Playoff.
The Nightmare Big 12 and BYU Scenario
So what impact could this have on the Big 12?
First off, it now becomes even more unlikely for the Big 12 to have more than one team in the College Football Playoff. The extra emphasis on conference champions and Notre Dame means one or more teams are going to get squeezed in the 12-Team format.
So as for BYU, there is a realistic scenario where BYU beats Notre Dame, but could end up on the outside looking in on the Playoff, while the Irish cruise to the postseason.
Notre Dame’s schedule is very soft, with only two games that stand out as tough ones: At BYU on October 17th, and then Saturday, November 7th vs. Miami. If Notre Dame loses at BYU, but ends up with a win over Miami, and goes 11-1, the Irish are all but a lock.
But what if BYU finishes 11-1, with a loss to a Big 12 team. And they reach the Big 12 Championship, where let’s say they lose again to Texas Tech. What do you think will happen? BYU will have a head-to-head win vs. Notre Dame, but because they will have played an extra game, in the conference championship, and lost it in this hypothetical scenario, the Cougars would be on the outside, looking in, on the College Football Playoff.
Conference Championship Games are Dead
If this scenario plays out, there is no way that the conference championship games should continue. If the game can hurt you, and a team like Notre Dame doesn’t have to play in one, while setting up its schedule to make sure its ranked in the Top 12 of the AP Poll at the end of the season, why are the rest of the conferences bothering with it?
There was a possibility that the Playoff was going to expand to 16 or 24 teams, but the deadline came and went and the SEC and Big Ten could not agree on a path forward. So now, we are stuck with the worst-case scenario for the Big 12, and specifically, possibly, BYU. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
