Illinois can still improve bowl stock vs. Northwestern

The Illini will play their final regular-season game Saturday night against Northwestern in Champaign. Both teams will be looking to enhance their bowl resumes with a win. Illinois is 7-4, 4-4 in conference. Northwestern will also be looking to upgrade its bowl status. The Wildcats are 6-5, 4-4 in conference.

The Key Players

The game will feature two of the Big Ten’s top 5 receivers in the Illini’s Hank Beatty and Northwestern’s Griffin Wilde. Beatty has 61 catches for 805 yards and 3 TDs. Wilde has 56 catches for 755 yards and 6 TDs.

Northwestern will also bring the fourth-best running back in the B1G, Caled Komolafe, with 175 carries for 886 yards and 10 TDs. The Illini running attack has become the Feagin and Valentine show, combining for 223 carries, 961 yards, and 9 TDs.

The Illini do have a distinct advantage at the QB Spot with Luke Altmyer, who, despite shaky offensive line play, has put together a very good season: 216-317 for 2,675 yards with 21 TDs to 5 interceptions. His counterpart on Saturday, Preston Stone, on the season is 184-303 for 2,011 yards, with 13 TDs vs 9 picks.

Defense vs Offense

Northwestern comes in defensively as 8th in the Big Ten in passing defense and 9th against the run. Offensively, they are 14th in passing and 6th in running.

The Illini are 17th in the Big Ten in passing defense and 7th against the run. On offense, they are 5th in the B1G in passing and 14th in rushing. This shapes up to be a strength vs strength game.

Keys to beating the Wildcats

First, the O-Line has to step up! They need to give Altmyer time. In the last three games, opposing defenses have recorded seven sacks and many other hurries and hits.

Second, the Illinois defense will have to be ready to stop the run. Northwestern’s running game is really good. Komolafe is the workhorse, but they also have Joseph Himon II, who has 497 yards on 96 carries with a TD. They average 174 yards on the ground per game. The defense will have to force them to pass by not allowing four- and five-yard chunks on first and second down.

Third, toughen up in the red zone defense. Illini opponents have scored on 34 of 38 times (89.47%) in the red zone (26 TDs, 8 FG).

Possible Bowl Invitations

The Big Ten has tie-ins with seven bowl games, NOT counting the CFP bowl games. The league will have 12 eligible bowl teams. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are almost assured of a spot in the CFP. Michigan could play its way in with a win over Ohio State. Here is my evaluation of the possibilities. (All times EDT).

*Game Above Sports Bowl (formerly the Quick Lane Bowl) at Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Tie-ins B1G and the MAC. Possible opponents: Western Michigan, Ohio, and Central Michigan. Chance: 0%. This game will likely go to the winner of the Penn State/Rutgers game.

*The Rate Bowl at Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ, Dec 26, 4:30 PM. (Formerly the Guaranteed Rate Bowl). Tie-ins Big 12 and B1G. Possible opponent: Cincinnati, Iowa St., or TCU. It would be Illinois’ first appearance in the Rate Bowl. The Illini would have to lose significantly, and Minnesota and Nebraska would have to win.

*The Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, NY, NY, Dec 27, Noon. Tie-ins the ACC and the B1G. Possible opponents: Pittsburgh, SMU, or Wake Forrest. If the Illini lose and Nebraska wins this game becomes a possibility.

*The Music City Bowl at Nissan Field in Nashville, TN, Dec. 30, at 5:30 PM. Tie-ins the SEC and B1G, possible opponents: LSU, Missouri, or Tennessee. Illinois has never played in the Music City Bowl. An Illini win puts them in the discussion

*The ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fl. Dec 31, at noon. Tie-ins B1G vs SEC, possible opponents Vanderbilt, Texas, or Tennessee. Illinois is 0-1 in the ReliaQuest bowl, losing to Mississippi State 19-10 in 2023. If the Illini win they are pretty much in

*The SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. Dec 31, 3:30. Tie-ins B1G or SEC and Pac-12, the Illini have never appeared in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Illini would need a win and Michigan to make the CFP.

*The Cheeze-It Citrus Bowl. at the Orange Bowl in Orlando, Florida, Dec 31st, 3:00 PM. Tie-ins B1G and SEC. The Illini are 1-0 with a win over South Carolina in 2024, 21-17. An Illini win, Iowa loss, and Michigan making the CFP would make this possible.

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