Is Center Field Morphing Into a Defensive Specialist Position?

Is that really it? That’s the best center field – territory of Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. and current No. 5 Mike Trout – has to offer?

It’s nothing against the top, where Julio Rodriguez seems likely to rebound from an inconsistent 2024 at the plate and Jackson Merrill is a burgeoning star. Depth of proven talent is simply lacking. Trout and Byron Buxton make sporadic appearances on any field, much less in the physically demanding center field role. Brandon Marsh and Oneil Cruz were switching back to or learning the position in 2024.

A survey of leaguewide data won’t help: Center fielders collectively logged a .697 OPS in 2024, the third-worst mark over the past 50 years, even as shortstops posted a banner year. The median OPS+ of the (alleged) hitters who roamed center field for at least 500 innings was 88, 12% worse than MLB average.

Before we accept that underwhelming feeling and allow it to shade our thinking, though, let’s take a step back and consider whether something bigger might be shifting our perspective.

Wait, you might already be thinking, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge (and his MLB-best 208 raw value+) was the AL MVP and one of the best players in the majors last year. And he mostly manned center field. The fact the Yankees brain trust announced its intent to move Judge back to right field early in the offseason, then executed moves to make it so, speaks to the larger tectonic change that might be afoot.

The perennial contenders just went to the World Series with the world’s best hitter playing center field. They could plausibly find and play a lesser defender with a better bat to play a corner outfield spot as Judge roams a premium defensive spot. Yet that’s not what they chose.

The Yankees’ decision and the hazy view of the game’s best center fielders ultimately trace back to the changing priorities in selecting center fielders. The crucial catbird’s seat in the grass appears to be increasingly defense first. Soon, it might look akin to catcher without the gear.

Offense vs. defense, speed vs. slug. Tradeoffs have always been part of the calculus of who plays where, and how often. The measures for defensive performance just couldn’t honestly be lumped in with calculus for the vast majority of baseball history. It was something more like your blind grandmother’s biscuit recipe. Scribbles, lore, gut.

Choosing the punch of offense, the snazzy name for the All-Star ballot or top-10 list, becomes much easier when you’re just eyeballing it. What’s another dollop of butter ever hurt?

Teams are not eyeballing it on defense any longer, and haven’t been for a while. Statcast’s defensive metrics are tracking player movements in the field in ways that allow for more confident conclusions about defensive skills, and the value they can generate.

MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello convincingly argued this summer that outfield defenders are better than they’ve ever been. The metrics aren’t just following the trend; they’re informing it and fueling it.

Just as bad-framing catchers essentially vanished from the majors in the years after receiving skill was quantified, plodding center fielders are being rooted out like trans fats or red dye No. 3. Clubs that were content, just a few years ago, to squeeze a Joc Pederson or Ketel Marte into center field for their bats are instead dishing out at-bats to top-tier defenders like Alek Thomas (career 73 OPS+) or trading for Kevin Kiermaier.

To wit: From 2017-19, 59% of all center fielders who took at least 75 chances were at least plus-1 in Outs Above Average, a Statcast defensive metric. From 2022-24, 70% of center fielders are at least +1.

Some of the faces of the new center fielder? This is the fun part, really. Unlike the catcher framing revolution, which was impactful but nearly invisible, the pivot to defense in center comes with serious highlight plays that must be factored in just like home run totals in developing your sense of cache in the No. 8 spot.

Consider the Rockies’ Brenton Doyle, two-time Gold Glove winner, and a top five overall defender in baseball by Statcast’s estimation. Tallying a batting line that hovered around league average in 2024 helped him rack up a 4.6 WAR season, ahead of Rodriguez (4.0). (He should definitely be on that top 10.)

The Nationals’ Jacob Young, a rookie whose .648 OPS is tugging down on the position’s offensive prowess, dazzled with the glove. Same for the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong.

They each managed 2-plus WAR seasons without sniffing league-average batting lines, to provide more value than better hitters such as Marsh or 22-homer Giants slugger Heliot Ramos.

The present and future of the position is difficult to survey because it’s in flux, and it might remain in flux. As Petriello pointed out, prioritizing center field defense typically means prioritizing youth. Center fielders could easily soar back into offensive greatness within a year or two if the Pirates’ experiment moving Cruz to the outfield works, or if a couple more Merrills appear on the scene. 

Added defensive certainty doesn’t tamp down talent potential, but it creates a bright line of competence – Judge was one of only seven qualified center fielders (out of 40) with a negative OAA in 2024 – that will necessitate churn. A position with such stringent defensive bounds will occasionally plummet into a morass of revolving doors, like the catching position, as defense-only regulars such as Jose Siri play a barely noticed game of musical chairs.

We’ve come a long way without necessarily realizing it. But it will only become more noticeable as teams lean in. Red Sox star Jarren Duran and Diamondbacks phenom Corbin Carroll could play center field, but they will likely make way for speedier options. Judge could take up the mantle as the next legendary Yankees center fielder.

But knowing what we know now, no one can deny that Judge has a better chance of achieving glory in right field, with a faster, more specialized teammate buzzing around in that storied center field, crafting a new story for what excellence can look like at the position.

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