Last week, a prominent Big Ten coach got fired, then arrested. This week, there are first-round Playoff games. So I was caught off guard that two-thirds of my questions were still about Notre Dame and the selection committee.
I decided to have some fun with that topic. But first, um, that Big Ten school currently looking for a new coach.
Am I wrong in my thinking that Michigan isn’t a Top 10 job right now? No big names will go there if they understand the AD has one foot out the door. And if they fire the AD, no way the coach goes there until they hire a new AD. It’s a dumpster fire of epic proportions at the moment. — Patrick B.
How viable would it be for Michigan to go the interim coach route for one season and make a hire during/after the 2026 season? Are there any lessons or comparisons to be drawn from Stanford’s year under Frank Reich? — Dan G.
You know, I predicted that about LSU after the governor got the AD fired, said he might let Donald Trump hire the next coach and proclaimed the school wasn’t going to give out another guaranteed contract. And I couldn’t have been more wrong. LSU ended up beating out two other SEC schools (and Florida State?) for Lane Kiffin.
Michigan is absolutely a Top 10 job. It won a national championship two years ago. Many coaches would love to lead such an iconic program. But the timing is, admittedly, not ideal. Penn State already hired a guy, Matt Campbell, who would have been high on the list. Several other potential candidates have either already changed jobs or signed extensions.
And, oh yeah, the Sherrone Moore fallout is far from over. AD Warde Manuel is a dead man walking, and there’s an ongoing investigation into the athletic department’s culture.
I don’t think the Stanford route is realistic because Michigan doesn’t have an NFL-style GM like Andrew Luck, who is more the face of that program now than the head coach. A lame-duck interim would have a hard time recruiting and make things that much harder for the next guy.
Michigan hired one of the big search firms, Turnkey, so it’s conducting a full-on search. Washington’s Jedd Fisch became the candidate du jour after Kalen DeBoer recommitted to Alabama. Fisch is by no means a slam dunk, but he took on a much-bigger challenge rebuilding Arizona. While I believe Kenny Dillingham is unlikely to leave Arizona State, Michigan could try to lure Clark Lea from Vanderbilt.
One potential wild-card: Kyle Whittingham, 66, who just stepped down at Utah after 21 seasons and, to some surprise, is looking for other coaching opportunities. While he may not be a long-term guy, he’s overly qualified to come in and win right away.
Whoever it is, this needs to be a full break from the past five years or so of Michigan football. (Fisch is nine years removed from Jim Harbaugh.) Those 2021-23 seasons were fun, but the program needs to cleanse itself at this point. Too much stench.
How much damage has Notre Dame brought on itself by its reaction to not being in the Playoff and refusing to play in a bowl game? I have read reports some ADs are saying they will not schedule games with Notre Dame in the future. — Terry G.
The bowl opt-out may have offended fans more than those within the industry. And I’ll believe it when I see it that ADs refuse to schedule Notre Dame because ADs like to sell tickets, and the Irish coming to your stadium is a guaranteed sellout.
But Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark was hardly the only one to see AD Pete Bevacqua’s three-day temper tantrum, especially his attack on the ACC, as “egregious.” Its main long-term impact might be a shared mindset of, “Why are we still bending over backwards for these guys?”
Buried within that media cycle was Bevacqua revealing that the CFP contract starting next year guarantees the Irish an at-large berth if they finish in the top 12. That certainly seems like special treatment. I asked around, and it appears this was to counter the possibility that from time to time the ACC or Big 12 champions could finish well below No. 12 and still get an automatic berth (as Clemson did last season and Duke might have this season). However, that ESPN deal only covers a 12- or 14-team field. If/when they go to 16, it seems unlikely that Notre Dame would get a separate carve-out like that one.
As for the ACC relationship, there may be “permanent damage” on both sides.
Much has changed since their partnership began in 2014, the first year of the four-team CFP, when there were fewer berths available and the most a school could receive from making the field was $6 million. Now, a school can earn as much as $20 million for its conference. But Notre Dame keeps all of that for itself. The ACC should have been, of course, as aggressive as possible promoting Miami over the Irish. People in that league were truly befuddled by why Bevacqua made such a stink about that issue.
Also, Notre Dame is not exactly a powerhouse in most ACC sports it competes in. It was the conference’s ninth-highest ranked member in last year’s Directors Cup standings (No. 36 overall). I’m not sure it would hurt the ACC Network that much if the school returned to the Big East.
Meanwhile, on Notre Dame’s side, the benefits of its ACC arrangement are dwindling. The ACC has fallen to a second-tier status in football, and most of its programs do not help the Irish’s schedule strength or perception. And having access to the conference’s non-CFP bowls is now a non-factor.
Conveniently, the ACC’s lawsuit settlement with Florida State and Clemson makes it easier for Notre Dame to exit. While the Grant of Rights remains in effect until 2036, the exit fee drops to a less-prohibitive $75 million in 2030, allowing the school to leave and take its media rights with it.
The question is, would the Big Ten be willing to make a similar partial arrangement? (The SEC would not.) If not, Notre Dame will need to decide whether to stay independent, with no built-in opponents, or to bite the bullet and join a conference in football.
As of now, that answer would be the former. Check back in five years, though.
Choose homes for the big-name transfer QBs (Sam Leavitt, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola, Brendan Sorsby, etc.) — Michael M.
It’s difficult to play matchmaker without knowing the rev-share or NIL offers they’ll be getting, or which big names will join the pool before New Year’s. But I’ll give you what I think will be the most appealing programs for guys entering the market. All will be looking for a new starter in 2026.
1. Indiana. Fun fact: Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza is the fifth of Cignetti’s last six QBs to win conference player of the year. The sixth was 2024 Indiana starter Kurtis Rourke, who made the second-team All-Big Ten. Seems like an ideal spot for someone looking for a big year of development.
2. LSU. Lane Kiffin knows what he’s doing with quarterbacks, most recently transforming D-II transfer Trinidad Chambliss into an All-SEC QB. He and OC Charlie Weis Jr. helped Jaxson Dart become a first-round pick before that.
3. Miami. After seeing what Cam Ward and Carson Beck did in Shannon Dawson’s offense — not to mention how much money they made — this could be the perfect opportunity for someone looking to boost his draft stock in his final season.
4. Texas Tech. The reigning Big 12 champs will pay you a small fortune and spend another small fortune surrounding you with talent. Seems fun.
5. Florida. Jon Sumrall made a sneaky-good OC hire in Georgia Tech’s Buster Faulkner, who helped turn Haynes King into a star the past three seasons.
Three others that would displace at least Florida if their QBs turn pro: Oregon (Dante Moore), Alabama (Ty Simpson) and Duke (Darian Mensah).
Dylan Raiola is one of the QBs looking for a new home next season. (Kylie Graham / Imagn Images)
Please update us on the current discussion to fix the CFP selection process, which had zero credibility this year. The CFP is broken and has terribly damaged college football. Who wants to even watch the CFP when they don’t have the right 12 teams to start? There should be a serious investigation into the CFP for potential conflicts of interest given the broadcasting contracts involved, and for providing misleading information on team rankings for a month before their final selection. — Tim K.
It could be a while before we get these answers. Anything CFP-related moves slowly.
But now I’m curious to see if anyone will watch this broken, terribly damaged event this weekend.
Stew, momentum seems to be building for a 16-team CFP. If that happens, is there any chance conference championship games will go away? And if so, could Rounds 1 and 2 both be held on campus? It seems ridiculous to push the season all the way to Jan. 20 just to protect conference championship games. — Tom
Well, here’s the thing. According to Nielsen, 18.3 million people watched the supposedly meaningless Ohio State-Indiana Big Ten championship game — higher than three of the four CFP quarterfinals and one of the two semifinals last season. And another 16.9 million watched the Alabama-Georgia SEC championship.
So, the conference championship games aren’t going anywhere.
If/when they expand to 16 teams, they will likely work within the calendar they have now, and cram in games wherever possible. Maybe Thursday and Friday night doubleheaders? A weekday afternoon? It’s tough to find new time slots that don’t clash with the NFL.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. As I’ve been urging for three years, shift the regular season a week earlier. Hold the first round on what’s currently conference championship weekend, before the NFL is allowed to play Saturday games. (I previously had this as an off week, but we’d need an NFL-free weekend to play eight games.) Then comes the week off (except for Army-Navy). Quarterfinals on campus in the third week of December. Semifinals on New Year’s Day. Championship game a week later. Just like it was before last season.
The problem is, they’ve already agreed to keep the quarterfinals at the bowls for another six years, and it seems silly to hold the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl on Dec. 20. So my fix may still be a few years away.
But of course, if/when Tony Petitti gets his wish and it goes to 24 teams, at that point they’d have to do away with the conference championship games unless they want the season to go practically to February. But I’d be curious how he plans to sell Fox on replacing that 1 vs. 2 Ohio State-Indiana game with No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 24 James Madison and No. 10 Miami vs. No. 23 Iowa.
Are we certain that both Oklahoma and Alabama will not remain in the Playoff after they play this Friday? — Gerry S.
No, it’s not certain. Remember, Oklahoma beat Alabama the first time. So, if the Sooners lose the rematch, they get a one-time exception to remain put.
Stew: We keep seeing 5-star QBs failing. Do the people who rate the high school players have to come under scrutiny? We automatically think five-stars will resurrect programs. It hasn’t always been the case. — Marc N.
Quarterback has always been the toughest position to evaluate because of all the intangibles involved. Look at how badly the NFL misses on first-rounders, despite having several years of college tape, pro days, combine interviews and more. The folks at 247Sports and college coaches are often going on low-res high school film (against overmatched competition), and maybe a couple of days at one of their camps.
But the hit rate may be improving slightly.
There were 11 five-star QBs from 2013-17, of which I’d call two a home run (Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa), five a college-level hit (Jarrett Stidham, Josh Rosen, Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason and Davis Mills) and four an out (Christian Hackenberg, Kyle Allen, Max Browne and Blake Barnett). That’s not a bad ratio, to be honest.
The latest window includes 14 guys, with five home runs (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye), five hits (Spencer Rattler, Quinn Ewers, Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik and Ty Simpson, who could still turn into home runs), and four outs (JT Daniels, DJ Uiagalelei, Sam Huard and Connor Weigman). On a percentage basis, more superstars, slightly fewer busts.
The question is whether the trend is starting to reverse. While I think it’s too early to rule out recent classes, things don’t look great for Jackson Arnold (2023) and Malachi Nelson (2023), and there are only two home runs: Dante Moore (2023) and Julian Sayin (2024). Still plenty of time for Arch Manning (2023), Dylan Raiola (2024), DJ Lagway (2024) and others.
Once upon a time, Manning’s career path — waiting his turn, then having ups and downs as a first-time starter — was typical. Now, everyone expects immediate success, and if it doesn’t happen right away, they transfer, which doesn’t always aid development either.
But perhaps Dante Moore can serve as a case study. He started as a true freshman and didn’t look good, and he did transfer … but then he sat for a year to develop without the scrutiny. Look at him now. He made the evaluators look smart. But had he taken a different route — like transferring down to start immediately — he might have ended up in the other group.
Dante Moore had a rough initial season, but then sat out a year at Oregon before emerging as one of the top QBs in the sport. (Ben Lonergan / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
Looking back at your preseason predictions during the Playoff era, has it become harder year-over-year to predict the final CFP rankings, particularly at the top of the rankings? — Martin D.
Yes, much harder. There was a time in the mid-2010s when you could just take the top 10 teams at the end of the season, rearrange it a little and look like a genius.
Case in point: In 2018, five of my top six teams on Jan. 9 finished in the top seven 12 months later. Not because I’m a Nostradamus, but because Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and Oklahoma kept all their best players and reloaded every year. The portal actually started that year but was barely a thing, because players still had to sit out a year before playing.
Fast forward to 2025, and it’s nearly the opposite. My top three teams in May (No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State and No. 3 Clemson) all missed the Playoff, along with No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 7 LSU. I did have nine of the 10 Power 4 CFP teams in those rankings (all but Ole Miss), but top seed Indiana was only No. 18. Perhaps I’ve lost my touch, or, perhaps because there’s so much player movement and roster turnover, and far more parity within the major conferences.
But I’ll make one prediction right now that I’m certain will hold true: Next season’s predictions will be even more baseless because so many new coaches will be taking over major programs, most of which will try to overhaul their rosters.
But you should read them anyway.
Navy, now 10-2, beat 6-5 Army on Saturday. Will the CFP Committee put out a third set of end-of-season rankings that are updated to include this result? How many rankings are appropriate to set the order of teams that have stopped playing? — Tom
Wait, did no one see the show ESPN aired Tuesday night???
Because of the boost to Notre Dame’s resume having now beaten a 10-win team, Hunter Yurachek said the Irish and Canes are no longer close enough to invoke the head-to-head. Notre Dame is back in!
Rece Davis did ask him about the fact the Irish already opted out of the postseason, but Yurachek said they don’t try to project how a team will perform without its players.
