We are inside of two weeks until the return of Big 12 football in Week 0 of the college football season. It will be another season of unpredictability, with at least eight fan bases thinking their team can win the conference this year. And you know there will be a team in the “projected” bottom half of the conference who ends up being a surprise and is competing to get to Arlington in December.
So with that, here are my predicted finishes for the 16 teams in the Big 12 Conference. We’ll start at the bottom and work our way to the top.
16. UCF Knights
There are so many new faces here under the return of head coach Scott Frost, and not many returning starters. That actually may be a good thing for the UCF Knights. But the uncertainty at quarterback, lack of experience at wide receiver, losing Lee Hunter to Texas Tech, and then nearly 70 new players in the mix means the rebuild is likely to take some time in Central Florida.
15. West Virginia Mountaineers
Speaking of new players, it’s the same thing for Rich Rodriguez, who returns to Morgantown and has to learn the names of 50 new players who came via transfer. This team is going to play tough, and while I could see them covering a bunch of spreads, this will be a foundation building year for Rich Rod. How quickly they rebuild the lines will tell us a lot about how quickly the turnaround takes.
14. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats began 5-2 last season and then when the competition got stiff, they lost five in a row to end the 2024 season and missed a bowl game. The Scott Satterfield experiment may have one more year left before a major decision has to be made. They do return a lot of players on both sides, and they need those guys to develop to take the next step as a program.
Related: One Trap Game for Every Big 12 Team in 2025
13. Arizona Wildcats
Speaking of coaches who might see their experiment at their current program come to an end, Brent Brennan is feeling the heat after going 4-8 last season. The good news: Noah Fifita is back and can hopefully gel well with Seth Doege. The offense will be much improved at all levels, but the defense, which was bad last year, needs to take a major leap under newly promoted Danny Gonzales.
12. Colorado Buffaloes
The Colorado Buffaloes lost their stars who helped them compete atop the Big 12 last season, but they may have some more depth at key positions like offensive and defensive line, as Coach Prime keeps building up the program. I actually think this team will be better than their record will end up showing, but I see a substantial step back in 2025, especially given the fact that CU has one of the toughest schedules in the Big 12 this season.
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The last time we saw the Cowboys play football, they were getting smoked at Folsom Field by the Buffaloes in a 52-0 loss to cap off an 0-9 Big 12 season, the worst in Mike Gundy‘s coaching career. And as a result, Gundy cleaned house. He brought in new OC Doug Meacham and DC Todd Grantham, both with a ton of experience. But they still don’t have a quarterback with any experience and are relying on a ton of transfers to hit. The offensive line lost 8 players with 264 starts and is starting over with a new QB. This team will be much better at the end of the season than the start of the season, but it will take time.
10. BYU Cougars
BYU’s defense and special teams will be there, but in the wake of the Jake Retzlaff departure, what about the offense? This was a defense-first team last season, but will potentially be even more reliant on that side of the ball in 2025. The best thing going for BYU is one of the softer schedules in the Big 12, starting off with winnable games vs. Colorado, WVU and Arizona.
9. Houston Cougars
The Houston Cougars will see one of the bigger jumps in the Big 12 this season. This team improved dramatically as the season went on last season as well, and now with what will be a much more talented offense, they will be able to keep up with the rest of the Big 12. The questions this year are on defense and if the transfers can hit to keep up with last year’s unit.
🎥 Watch: Our full breakdown of the 2025 Big 12 football rankings & predictions
8. Kansas Jayhawks
Jalon Daniels needed the first few games last season to knock the rust off, but now, he’s ready to pop to his 2022 form. There will be a lot of new faces at the skill positions, but more depth. Kansas has lost the fewest scholarship players to the transfer portal of any Power 4 team the last two seasons. That payoff will be evident this season in Lawrence as they open up a new stadium.
7. Iowa State Cyclones
While I like Rocco Becht, he can be hot or cold, and now he loses two top wide receivers to the NFL. Also, the defense has more questions than it’s had over the last couple of years, but it’s hard to ever question Jon Heacock. Their schedule is one of the more favorable in the Big 12, but the trip to Ireland vs. K-State is a tough way to start the season with lots of new pieces needing to step for a team that traditionally starts slow.
6. TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU Horned Frogs are going to put up a ton of points under Sonny Dykes, Kendal Briles and quarterback Josh Hoover. The questions are on the defensive side, but they should be tougher up front, which is where they struggled last season. But it’s undoubtedly a big season for DC Andy Avalos. And the tough part for TCU is one of the more difficult schedules in the Big 12.
Related: Ranking Every Big 12 Starting Quarterback Ahead of the 2025 Season
5. Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats have a lot on the line this season, and much will hinge on the development of quarterback Avery Johnson as a Year 2 starter. However, there are questions at key positions as this team returns the fewest starters of any program I consider a “contender” this year. Can the D-line replace last year’s production? The same questions exist in the back seven as well. The offensive line should be competent, because it always is in Manhattan, but only four home games and a trip to Ireland also doesn’t bode well for KSU this season.
4. Baylor
The Bears, like many teams atop the Big 12, are a team that have the ability to win the Big 12. The defense returns eight starters with experience and needs to improve as a unit for Baylor to reach Arlington. The program has the best QB-RB duo in the Big 12 in Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington, and most of its offensive line. The will pile up the points, but need to avoid high-scoring games that could be decided by the final possession.
3. Arizona State
Arizona State has the makings of a team that can run it back and win back-to-back Big 12 titles, which hasn’t been done since Oklahoma five years ago. However, I do wonder how this team handles going from being the hunter to the hunted. Most of this team returns on both sides, and I really like the offensive and defensive lines, but a play here or there that will decide a game will result in them just missing the Big 12 Championship.
2. Utah
Boy do I like A LOT about this Utah team. The defense is going to be stout, as always, under Morgan Scalley, led by the front seven. Offensively, Utah is banking on the OC-QB duo of Jason Beck and Devon Dampier working their magic from New Mexico and having it translate in the Big 12. They will be led by an offensive line that will be one of the best in the country and could include multiple first round NFL Draft picks in 2026. Utah lost a bunch of close games last season, despite being down to their 5th string quarterback. The Utes get a big bounce back in 2025 to reach Arlington.
1. Texas Tech
I’m buying the Texas Tech Red Raiders after bringing in the No. 1 transfer portal class in the country. They just have more talent at every level than any other Big 12 team, and I also believe it’s critical that they return Behren Morton at quarterback, who can help the new offensive pieces gel faster than they otherwise might. The offensive and defensive lines are absolutely stacked at a high-end SEC level. This will be the ultimate difference for the Red Raiders, who will win the Big 12 for the first time in program history and punch a ticket to a College Football Playoff.
