Three and Through? What History Tells Us About Arsenal’s Chances of Progressing Against Real Madrid

Sometimes, three isn’t a magic number. Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Real Madrid on Tuesday was quite something, but will it be enough to see the English side advance to the semi-finals of the Champions League? We see what history tells us about three-goal deficits in Europe.

What a night it was for Arsenal. A UEFA Champions League quarter-final at home to current holders and perennial winners Real Madrid, and a resounding 3-0 victory.

Two stunning free-kicks from Declan Rice and another impressive finish from Mikel Merino put the Gunners in a commanding position in the tie, but crucially, it was only the first leg.

It is the proverbial ‘half-time’ point in the tie, and Real Madrid are already making noises about overturning the deficit at the Santiago Bernabéu next Wednesday.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti said after the chastening defeat in north London: “The possibilities [of qualifying] are quite low, but we have to try 100%. We have to do all we can, it’s an opportunity to show a response to a poor game.

“If you look at the game tonight, there is no possibility. But football changes… In football, everything can happen. We need to believe, we need to have trust because, sometimes, a lot of times in the Bernabéu, it happened.”

Lucas Vázquez was even more defiant, saying: “It’s difficult, but if there’s any team in the world that can turn this situation around, it’s us in front of our home fans at our ground. We’ll see a different game on Wednesday and if we all stick together, we’ll come through it.”

Arsenal vs Real Madrid

Normally, there would be a healthy dose of scepticism about that being possible, but this is Real Madrid in the Champions League we’re talking about.

There have been 47 instances of a team taking a lead of three or more goals into the second leg of a Champions League tie, and that margin has only been overturned on four occasions. So, perhaps any Arsenal fans panicking about a potential comeback can take solace in knowing that it’s only happened in 8.5% of previous comparable scenarios.

The first occurrence was in the 2003-04 season, when AC Milan felt mightily confident of progressing past Deportivo La Coruña to the semi-finals after a comfortable 4-1 win in the first leg at San Siro. However, a stunning performance from the Spanish side in the return game at the Riazor earned Deportivo a 4-0 win on the night, and a famous 5-4 aggregate victory.

It didn’t happen again until 2016-17, when it became Barcelona’s thing to be involved in dramatic turnarounds on a seemingly annual basis. The first was the most theatrical, though, and remains the only example of a four-goal overturn in the competition.

Unai Emery’s Paris Saint-Germain swept Barcelona aside 4-0 in the first leg of their last-16 tie at the Parc des Princes. Barça had their work cut out, but they also had Lionel Messi and Neymar. The second leg was an incredible night at Camp Nou, with Barça winning 6-1 and 6-5 on aggregate, including substitute Sergi Roberto scoring the crucial sixth goal just 20 seconds before the end of second-half stoppage time.

A year later, and it was Barcelona on the receiving end. Their 4-1 win over Roma in the first leg of the 2017-18 quarter-finals at Camp Nou seemed routine enough, though did include two Roma own goals, one from Kostas Manolas. The Greek defender more than made up for it in the second leg in Rome, however, scoring the third in an incredible 3-0 win for the Giallorossi. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that Roma ultimately progressed on the away goals rule, which of course is no longer a factor in European knockout football.

A harrowing night for Barça, but at least lightning doesn’t strike twice right… right?

It was another big home win for Barcelona in the first leg of their 2018-19 Champions League semi-final against Liverpool, with Messi bagging a brace after Luis Suárez had scored against his former club.

However, once again Barça were left aghast. On a historic night at a rocking Anfield, Liverpool turned things around with a remarkable 4-0 victory, with the winner coming via a now iconic quickly taken corner from Trent Alexander-Arnold to Divock Origi to stun the Catalans once more.

It hasn’t been done since that night on Merseyside in 2019, but Arsenal will be more than aware of the mystery ‘quality’ Real Madrid have in this competition. They’re bound to have more belief than any other club having won the European Cup/Champions League more than twice as many times as anyone else (15).

Have they come from three goals down after the first leg to win a tie in the competition, though?

Yes, once, and it was against an English team, too.

Real Madrid and Derby County don’t play each other very often these days but did meet in the second round of the European Cup in the 1975-76 season. A brilliant performance from the Rams at the Baseball Ground in the first leg saw them win 4-1, with Arsenal legend Charlie George scoring a hat-trick.

However, while George also found the net in the return leg at the Bernabéu, Madrid scored four times to make it 5-5 on aggregate, before Santillana grabbed his second of the game in the ninth minute of extra-time to win it for the Spanish giants.

Los Blancos repeated the trick twice more in the 1980s, though both times it was in the UEFA Cup.

In the third round of the competition in 1984-85, Anderlecht beat Madrid 3-0 in Brussels, seemingly putting them in pole position to advance. However, a stunning 6-1 second-leg reverse that included an Emilio Butragueño hat-trick in Spain saw Madrid go through, ultimately winning the UEFA Cup that season when they beat Hungarian side Videoton in the final.

They did it again just a year later but in even more spectacular fashion. Madrid were thrashed 5-1 by Borussia Mönchengladbach in the first leg of their third-round tie in Germany, but a brace each for Jorge Valdano and Santillana in the second leg saw the La Liga side win 4-0 on the night to go through on away goals. They again went all the way in the competition, beating another Bundesliga side in FC Köln in the final.

That was the last time Real Madrid managed to overcome a three-goal deficit in Europe, though. The only other three occasions they have suffered defeat by three or more goals were: against Benfica in the quarter-finals of the 1964-65 European Cup, when they were only able to win 2-1 in the second leg after a 5-1 first-leg loss in Lisbon; the semi-finals of the 1986-87 European Cup against Bayern Munich, winning 1-0 in Madrid after a 4-1 defeat in Germany; and the semis of the 2012-13 Champions League, following up a 4-1 loss at Borussia Dortmund with a 2-0 win at the Bernabéu.

It could still be a nervy night for Arsenal, though, as each of those examples when Real Madrid have been 3+ goals behind going into a second leg, they have at least won the return leg on home soil, just not always by enough goals.

Looking only at knockout ties in the Champions League era (since 1992-93), Madrid have a one-in-three record of overcoming a first-leg deficit of any kind. They have been behind in 15 two-legged contests in the competition, managing to progress from five.

The first three came against Galatasaray in the 2000-01 quarter-finals (3-2 loss followed by 3-0 win), Bayern in the quarters the following season (2-1 loss, 2-0 win), and Wolfsburg in the 2015-16 quarter-finals (2-0 loss, 3-0 win) where a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick turned things around.

It then happened twice more in the 2021-22 season. First, a Karim Benzema hat-trick helped them overturn a 1-0 loss from the first leg against PSG in the last 16 with a 3-1 win in Madrid. Then, there was their famously dramatic semi-final success against Manchester City, losing the first leg 4-3 before two late Rodrygo goals forced extra-time in the Bernabéu. Benzema’s penalty sent them to another final.

Arsenal’s 3-0 victory on Tuesday was the 12th time an English side have won by three or more goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, and each of the 11 previous instances have seen that team progress to the next round.

The data still suggests Arsenal have every reason to be supremely confident of securing the biggest of scalps next Wednesday.

When it comes to Real Madrid in the Champions League, though, never say never…

You can read in deeper detail about the biggest ever Champions League comebacks here.

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