The Big 12 football season begins next week, including the Dublin “Farmageddon” game between Iowa State and Kansas State.
After looking at each Big 12 team, here is their worst-case scenario for the year. Our site did each team’s best-case scenario here. It’s arranged a bit differently, as the worst case is defined by the floor for losses in a season.
Arizona: 3 Wins
Things go off the rails fast for the Wildcats with a season-opening loss to Hawaii. The Wildcats fall to Kansas State at home, followed by a loss to Iowa State. Arizona’s last two games against Baylor and Arizona State do it no favors, but by then, they’re out of bowl contention.
Arizona State: 8 Wins
The Sun Devils suffer the typical championship hangover, fall on the road at Mississippi State in their only power conference non-league game, and struggle with an early gauntlet of Big 12 teams that includes Baylor, TCU, Utah, and Texas Tech.
Baylor: 5 Wins
The Bears lose back-to-back games to Auburn and SMU to start the season. Baylor goes 1-3 in its first four league games against Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and TCU. Then it just gets worse down the stretch, and coach Dave Aranda’s seat gets hot again.
BYU: 6 Wins
The Cougars shuffled through quarterbacks throughout the season, and the defense takes a step back despite its talent. BYU falls to Stanford in non-conference, and a three-game stretch against Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU sees the Cougars go 0-3.
UCF: 2 Wins
Things get bad from the start in Scott Frost’s reboot as head coach. The Knights lose the opener to Jacksonville State, fall to North Carolina two weeks later, and are only able to beat one team in Big 12 action.
Cincinnati: 3 Wins
The Bearcats start the season 1-2, with losses to Nebraska and Bowling Green. From there, the losses continue to mount, including a defeat at the hands of UCF. The downturn costs Scott Satterfield his job by mid-November as Cincinnati prepares to start over.
Colorado: 5 Wins
The Buffaloes never quite emerge from the shadow of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Colorado loses its opener to Georgia Tech, falls on the road to Houston, and barely falls short of bowl eligibility with season-ending losses to Arizona State and Kansas State.
Houston: 4 Wins
Connor Weigman doesn’t take to the Houston offense as hoped. The Cougars suffer an early upset to Stephen F. Austin, fall to Colorado in the Big 12 opener, and come out of September 0-4. From there, it’s a fight just to get to four victories.
Iowa State: 6 Wins
Things go south fast with a loss to Kansas State in Ireland and a loss two weeks later to Iowa. The Cyclones can’t get their passing game on track with the new personnel, and some unlikely conference teams hand Iowa State some upsets.
Kansas: 5 Wins
The Jayhawks are upset by Fresno State at home and fall to Missouri on the road. The close losses mount, and Kansas falls in winnable games to teams like Cincinnati, UCF, and Arizona. Quarterback Jalon Daniels goes out without a bowl bid.
Kansas State: 7 Wins
The Wildcats fall overseas in Ireland, struggle with the re-entry, and drop an unexpected loss when they head to Arizona for a non-conference game. With games against Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, and Colorado, there are plenty of opportunities to stumble if things go south.
Oklahoma State: 4 Wins
The quarterback situation never really gets off the ground. The road trip to Oregon sets the Cowboys back for weeks, and a difficult stretch in late October and November prevents Oklahoma State from reaching a bowl game for the second straight year.
TCU: Six Wins
TCU starts the year by losing two of its first three games to North Carolina and SMU. From there, it’s a struggle to start Big 12 play with Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas State, and Baylor in succession. The Horned Frogs recover enough to reach a bowl game.
Texas Tech: 8 Wins
Tech loses the home game with Oregon State to end non-conference action, and the hangover carries over into its Big 12 opener with Utah. The Red Raiders struggle with an October stretch that includes Kansas, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State.
Utah: 5 Wins
Little changes with the installation of a new offense under coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier. The Utes drop games to UCLA and Wyoming before getting into league play and endure another long losing streak, as they did a season ago.
West Virginia: 5 Wins
The Mountaineers suffer an early upset at Ohio, follow that up with a loss in the Backyard Brawl against Pitt, and then get in a rut in Big 12 play against a group of teams they should be competitive with. A difficult stretch in November makes it hard for them to reach a bowl game.
