NFL free agency begins March 9 with the legal negotiating window, but the action has already started. The Jets and Titans made the first big move of the offseason last week, with New York sending edge rusher Jermaine Johnson to Tennessee for defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. Two trades followed Monday, with the Texans sending offensive tackle Tytus Howard to the Browns for a fifth-round pick and acquiring running back David Montgomery from the Lions for guard Juice Scruggs and two draft picks. The Rams jumped into the fray Wednesday, sending four draft picks to the Chiefs for star cornerback Trent McDuffie.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?
Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grades at the top. Let’s start with the McDuffie deal.
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Jump to a notable deal:McDuffie | Montgomery-ScruggsHoward | Johnson-Sweat
Rams get: CB Trent McDuffieChiefs get: Rams’ 2026 first-round pick (No. 29), 2026 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick, 2027 third-round pick
Rams grade: C+Chiefs grade: A-
Cornerback was the weakness of the Rams’ defense last season. So Les Snead did what Les Snead does — address the problem by adding a star via trade.
And McDuffie is a star. When I sought feedback for my 100-player MVP ballot a year ago, folks in the league told me that McDuffie was in the mix for the best cornerback in the NFL that season. Over the course of his four-year career he has allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and has never had a season where he fared worse than the average for a cornerback in that category (1.1). That high-level consistency is rare at corner, a notoriously volatile position.
McDuffie, 25, allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season along with a 16.9% target rate (slightly higher than average and the highest of McDuffie’s career). He comes with inside-out flexibility, having spent most of the past two seasons out wide but a substantial amount of time in 2023 at nickel.
You can understand why the Rams are making this deal. They have a 38-year-old quarterback in Matthew Stafford coming off an MVP season and don’t want to waste their current championship window. They saw the opportunity to add a star in the prime of his career to fill a major need and took it. Obviously, they are better now with McDuffie on the team. And there is no shutdown corner available in free agency.
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But the cost is substantial. The addition of the other picks to the late first-rounder move the value up to a mid first-rounder at minimum (and there’s a good argument they gave up more than that), depending on the relative valuation of those picks.
The surplus value going back to Kansas City is large. Draft picks are never a guarantee, but when teams hit on them they end up with players on undervalued contracts with four (or five) years of team control.
By contrast, while McDuffie is currently a value for 2026 at $13.6 million, my assumption is that the Rams will extend him at something akin to a market rate for a player among the top cornerbacks. In that case, they are giving up a package that includes a first-round pick for the right to pay McDuffie. This format of trade is always hard to justify for the acquiring team given that fact. And a trade like this for a cornerback is particularly scary given how wild the swings at that position can be from season to season.
I am more sympathetic to the acquiring team than I usually, though, given the closing-window argument and the lack of an obvious alternative. But I would not have made this deal if I was running the Rams.
For the Chiefs, this continues a pattern of letting corners walk out the door under the assumption that they’ll be able to draft and develop players who can perform under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The history here — most notably L’Jarius Sneed’s lack of success in Tennessee and the Chiefs’ ability to be fine without the departed corners — is another reason for the Rams to be wary. Any Chiefs cornerback probably comes with a drop-off risk once they leave Spagnuolo. We’ll see how far they want to push that strategy with impending free agent Jaylen Watson — will they let him walk, too?
Either way, Kansas City must reload its roster. As of this writing the Chiefs are more than $6 million over the 2026 cap and are below average in terms of 2027 cap room. But they need a new infusion of talent, particularly to help an offense which has been quixotically stuck in the mud considering that Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback.
The extra draft capital will let the team get younger and add players while keeping costs low. And if the Chiefs truly believe in their ability to keep replenishing at corner, then that makes a deal like this even more rational.
Texans get: RB David MontgomeryLions get: G Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick
Texans grade: DLions grade: A
At some point this offseason, the Texans needed to add a running back to team up with second-year man Woody Marks. They opted to do that early by acquiring Montgomery. Houston’s running game was abysmal in 2025, ranking 31st in EPA per designed carry. Their running back play wasn’t ideal, but the biggest culprit of that poor performance was an offensive line that ranked 32nd in run block win rate. Though Marks averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he still recorded 31 rush yards over expected, another sign that the offensive line was the problem.
In Montgomery, the Texans acquire a reliable veteran who recorded 125 rush yards over expected with Detroit in 2025, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But his role has steadily decreased in recent years with the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs. In the 14 games Montgomery played in 2023, he was featured on 48% of snaps and carried the ball 219 games. By 2025, those numbers dropped to 37% and 158, respectively, despite playing in 17 games. Montgomery’s receiving work was also limited because of Gibbs — as his 24 receptions last season were nowhere close to the 54 he once caught with the Bears in 2020.
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Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David Montgomery
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
Montgomery’s contract is reasonable: It’ll cost Houston $6 million in cash this year (and $9 million nonguaranteed next year) if left untouched. But that does not mean this was a smart acquisition. An aging (29 years old in June), early-down back whose prior team had been phasing him out is not worth spending real resources on. It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure a four-seven swap here since the Texans could have found comparable expected production for far less.
Scruggs is a reclamation project throw-in for Detroit. The 2023 second-round pick has bounced around the interior of Houston’s offensive line. At guard, he has been in the 24th and 26th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. The results at center in 2024 were even worse, as he was third percentile in both metrics. Scruggs has one year left on his rookie deal, but the draft picks should be more than enough here for the Lions. They can use that capital to find another running back to complement Gibbs late in the draft or find a low-cost veteran in free agency. It’s as easy a win as the Lions will find all offseason.
Browns get: OT Tytus HowardTexans get: 2026 fifth-round pick
Browns grade: D+Texans grade: A-
One starting offensive lineman down, four more to go for the Browns. In acquiring Howard, an offensive tackle who has occasionally kicked inside to guard in his seven NFL seasons, Cleveland starts the massive rebuild of its offensive line. But was it worth it? I have a hard time seeing how.
With six offensive line free agents, the Browns are going to look significantly different in the trenches in 2026, and they’re right to jump on this right away. There’s a good chance the Browns will have a young, developing player at quarterback — be it Shedeur Sanders or someone else — and it’s critical to keep that player upright.
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Howard’s exact role is unknown due to his flexibility and how the Browns’ address their other holes upfront, but right tackle seems like the safest bet since it’s where he has most frequently played.
Howard ranked in the 24th percentile in pass block win rate at tackle and the 31st percentile in run block win rate at tackle last season. He was also below average in both in 2024. That hasn’t always been the case — Howard ranked in the top 10 overall in pass block win rate at tackle in 2021 and 2022. But we’re several seasons removed from that, and he scored poorly in run blocking in each of those seasons.
So the Browns are likely getting a below-average starter. And he isn’t cheap. Howard is slated to make $17.5 million in 2026 (the final year of his deal) and is now signing a two-year, $45 million extension, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The Browns sat at less than $1 million under the 2026 cap prior to this deal, per OverTheCap.com, though their cap obligations lighten quite a bit in 2027. But is this where they want to spend their resources, dealing a fifth-round pick to pay what might be an over-market deal for a below-average starter? That’s not how I’d want to kick off the offseason.
This continues a recent pattern of offensive line turnover for the Texans, but I don’t mind this move for them. Houston needs better blocking, both to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and generate a running game to support him. It was last in the NFL (32nd) in run block win rate, 30th in pass block win rate and 26th in yards gained before contact on running back rushes last season.
Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who have plenty of open spots along the offensive line, with both Ed Ingram and Trent Brown set to be free agents. They’ll need to add offensive line help at some point and must set aside money to pay edge rusher Will Anderson Jr — and probably Stroud, too. So getting a fifth-round pick to not pay Howard seems like good business.
Jets get: DT T’Vondre SweatTitans get: Edge Jermaine Johnson
Jets grade: A-Titans grade: C-
For all their faults, the Jets came out of last year’s trade deadline with two of the very best deals in that period. While hardly on the same scale, they kicked off the 2026 trade season with another shrewd move in swapping out Johnson for Sweat in a one-for-one swap.
The last of the Jets’ three 2022 first-round picks, Johnson put together one decent sack season in 2023, with 7.5 sacks en route to a Pro Bowl nod. That came while playing for current Titans head coach Robert Saleh, which I assume is a critical factor in why this deal was made.
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But Johnson managed only 5.5 sacks over his other three seasons in New York, though he played just three games in 2024 due to an Achilles injury. Advanced pass-rushing metrics have not been kind to Johnson in his four-year career. His career pass rush win rate is only 8.4% (8.9% last season), while the average for a starting edge in that span is 15.6%.
Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets’ run defense and provide some pass rush from the nose. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it’s not bad considering where he lines up. He’ll join a Jets interior group that includes Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.
As for Johnson, the Titans need help at edge. But that need doesn’t make it worth the cost.
Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and will cost the Jets just $1.6 and $2.1 million in each of those years, respectively. Sweat is also younger and, in my view, has a better chance to be a plus contributor than Johnson. That makes this deal well worth it for New York, especially considering the Jets will get a player with another year of team control for less money.
