The race for the NHL’s Hart Trophy — awarded annually to the league’s most valuable player — is shaping up to be one of the most competitive storylines of the 2025–26 season. While statistical production often dominates MVP conversations, this year’s race highlights the growing importance of narrative momentum and the role betting markets play in shaping perception around candidates.
Nathan MacKinnon’s recent 40th goal energized both the arena and sportsbooks tracking the Hart Trophy odds. His scoring pace and overall impact on the Colorado Avalanche have made him the early benchmark candidate. However, the MVP field remains crowded, with Connor McDavid continuing to deliver elite offensive production, rookie sensation Macklin Celebrini emerging as a disruptive contender, and several other stars producing numbers worthy of consideration.
Using scoring leaders, midseason voting trends, contract information, and sportsbook futures data, this breakdown examines the leading candidates and explains why each player remains part of the league’s evolving MVP discussion.
Nathan MacKinnon
Nathan MacKinnon continues to set the pace in the 2025–26 Hart Trophy race. The Colorado Avalanche superstar has recorded 93 points (second in the NHL), 40 goals (first), and a league-leading +48 rating, reinforcing his reputation as one of hockey’s most dominant players.
At the midseason checkpoint, MacKinnon had already produced 78 points and 36 goals, averaging 1.81 points per game. That scoring pace actually surpassed the rate of last year’s Hart Trophy winner by roughly 0.25 points per game, highlighting just how exceptional his season has been.
MacKinnon’s even-strength impact has also been extraordinary. He has recorded 29 even-strength goals and 58 points, while the Avalanche holds a remarkable +53 goal differential (76–23) when he is on the ice. Those numbers underline his importance to Colorado’s offensive and defensive success.
Midseason voting places MacKinnon firmly at the top of the Hart Trophy race. He leads the voting leaderboard with 73 points and 10 first-place selections, giving him a clear edge in the MVP discussion.
Odds & Betting Context
MacKinnon has also emerged as the betting favorite across several sportsbooks. Futures markets from DraftKings and BetMGM have listed him around −235 to −200, reflecting both his statistical dominance and the confidence bettors have in his consistency.
According to odds, MacKinnon currently holds the shortest Hart Trophy odds across several major sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. His share of betting tickets and overall handle remain among the highest in the market, indicating strong support from both casual fans and experienced futures bettors.
With the Hart Trophy race drawing continued betting interest, many fans turn to platforms like RotoWire to evaluate sportsbook value beyond the odds alone. That includes tracking market movement, reviewing betting coverage, and comparing offers, such as those from Caesars Sportsbook, when considering potential MVP futures.
Connor McDavid
Whenever Connor McDavid is active, the Hart Trophy conversation inevitably includes his name. The Edmonton Oilers captain once again leads the NHL in total points with 96, while ranking second in goals with 34.
One of McDavid’s most impressive stretches came during a 17-game point streak, when he produced 41 points and 18 goals. During that run, he averaged 2.41 points per game, which projects to an extraordinary 198-point pace over a full 82-game season.
While maintaining that level of production for an entire season is unlikely, the streak demonstrated how quickly McDavid can shift the MVP narrative. Sportsbooks responded accordingly, adjusting his Hart Trophy odds significantly during the surge.
Midseason voting totals show McDavid with 59 voting points and three first-place votes, placing him firmly within striking distance of MacKinnon.
Contract details
McDavid remains one of the NHL’s highest-paid players. His current contract is an eight-year, $100 million deal carrying an average annual value of $12.5 million. For the 2025–26 season specifically, his compensation includes a $3 million base salary and a $7 million signing bonus.
Odds & betting context
Although MacKinnon currently leads the betting market, McDavid remains one of the strongest contenders. Futures boards show him generally priced between +600 and +1200. Earlier preseason odds even had McDavid listed as the favorite at some sportsbooks, highlighting his perennial MVP profile.
Macklin Celebrini
Every MVP race needs a compelling storyline, and Macklin Celebrini has provided one of the most fascinating narratives of the season. The rookie standout has recorded 81 points (fourth in the NHL) and had 67 points at the midseason checkpoint, ranking third at that time.
Celebrini’s even-strength production has drawn comparisons to some of the most famous rookie seasons in NHL history. When measured against the legendary debut campaigns of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin in 2005–06, his numbers remain impressive.
He has recorded:
20 even-strength goals (tied for second in the NHL) 49 even-strength points (second) +23 goal differential while on the ice
The key question surrounding Celebrini is whether he can sustain his pace and disrupt the established dominance of players like MacKinnon and McDavid.
Midseason voting totals show Celebrini with 56 points and three first-place votes, confirming that voters are taking his rookie season seriously.
Odds & betting context
Sportsbook futures consistently place Celebrini as the closest challenger to MacKinnon. His Hart Trophy odds have typically ranged between +215 and +470, depending on the sportsbook and timing of the wager.
Many betting boards list him as the second-shortest candidate behind MacKinnon, suggesting the market believes his rookie campaign could evolve into a legitimate MVP push if his production continues.
Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov continues to produce elite offensive numbers. With 91 points, he currently ranks third in the NHL scoring race, reinforcing his reputation as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers.
Kucherov has accumulated nine midseason Hart voting points, placing him within the extended group of MVP candidates.
Odds & betting context
According to futures markets, Kucherov typically appears between +500 and +650 in Hart Trophy odds. Those numbers reflect both his offensive consistency and the challenge of surpassing the league’s most dominant centers.
Even so, Kucherov remains one of the NHL’s most productive wingers, and a strong late-season surge could elevate his standing in the MVP race.
Kirill Kaprizov
Kirill Kaprizov continues to anchor the Minnesota Wild offense. He is tied for third in the NHL with 32 goals, and advanced metrics consistently rank him among the league’s most impactful forwards.
Despite his production, Kaprizov has received only two midseason voting points, illustrating the challenge of gaining MVP momentum outside the league’s top tier.
Contract
Kaprizov recently signed an eight-year, $136 million extension that will carry an average annual value of $17 million beginning in the 2026–27 season.
Odds & betting context
Futures odds place Kaprizov deep on Hart Trophy boards, often around +30,000. Those numbers highlight how difficult it can be to break into the top tier of MVP contenders even with elite individual performance.
Mikko Rantanen
Mikko Rantanen remains one of the NHL’s most reliable offensive producers and has accumulated 15 voting points in the Hart Trophy race.
However, playing alongside MacKinnon can sometimes complicate his MVP narrative. Voters frequently credit MacKinnon as the primary driver of Colorado’s success, which can overshadow Rantanen’s contributions.
Odds & betting context
Rantanen’s Hart Trophy odds also appear deep in futures markets, often around +30,000 according to odds comparisons.
Defensemen and Goaltenders in the Hart Race
Although the Hart Trophy is typically dominated by forwards, several players at other positions have produced impressive seasons.
Zach Werenski
Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski has received four voting points, making him one of the few defensemen mentioned in the MVP conversation. His ability to influence both offense and defense has drawn attention despite the award’s forward-heavy nature.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to perform at an elite level, posting a 2.11 goals-against average, a .920 save percentage, and 27 wins, which leads the league. Despite those numbers, goaltenders historically face long odds in Hart voting.
The Narrative Factor in the Hart Trophy Race
As the 2025–26 NHL season continues, the Hart Trophy race will likely evolve in ways that go beyond simple statistical comparisons. Voters often weigh a combination of team success, historical context, and the broader narrative surrounding each player’s season.
MacKinnon’s dominance, McDavid’s historic scoring pace, and Celebrini’s remarkable rookie campaign all present compelling cases for MVP consideration. Each player offers a different storyline, and those narratives often become increasingly influential as the season approaches its final months.
Betting markets provide a useful snapshot of how the MVP race is perceived in real time. Odds shifts frequently reflect both statistical trends and public sentiment, making the futures market an early indicator of momentum in the Hart Trophy conversation.
Ultimately, the Hart Trophy winner will likely be the player who combines elite production with a defining storyline that captures the league’s voters’ attention. As the playoff race intensifies and the regular season nears its conclusion, the balance between numbers, narrative, and market perception will continue to shape one of the NHL’s most fascinating awards races.
