My First Bet for Week 4: NFL picks to consider right now

Week 4 of the NFL season gets underway with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Seattle Seahawks on “Thursday Night Football.”

Sunday night features Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers hitting the road to take on his former team, the Dallas Cowboys.

The week closes out with another “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, as the New York Jets visit the Miami Dolphins (7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN) and the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC).

Our team takes a look at the early Week 4 odds and identifies which ones are worth jumping on now before any potential shifts later in the week.

Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook

My First Bet

Chicago Bears to cover +1.5 (-125) at Las Vegas Raiders

Matt Bowen: Over his last two games, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has thrown for 505 yards and six touchdowns. There are positive signs of development for Williams on the tape, too. More poise and patience in the pocket here. Yes, the Bears’ subpar run defense (allowing 5.5 yards per carry) could open the door for Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty to get on track, but I’ll take Chicago and coach Ben Johnson this Sunday in Vegas.Last week’s pick: Colts -3.5 at Titans (line closed Colts -5.5). Colts won, 41-20.

Editor’s Picks

1 Related

Green Bay Packers to cover -6.5 (-105) at Dallas Cowboys

Joe Fortenbaugh: How much analysis do you really need here? Have you watched the Dallas defense? It made Russell Wilson look like John Elway and Caleb Williams look like Patrick Mahomes in back-to-back weeks. Throw in the fact that CeeDee Lamb is banged up and the Packers are coming off a horrific loss at Cleveland and you have all the makings of a Sunday night rout.

Cincinnati Bengals to cover +7.5 (-125) at Denver Broncos

Eric Karabell: OK, so the first weekend post-Joe Burrow went poorly. Jake Browning wasn’t great. The defense remains horrid. The Bengals probably fumbled again while you’re reading this. I don’t think this continues. Browning is certainly competent. He proved this when he replaced Burrow in 2023. This WR duo is great. Chase Brown should bounce back. As for the Broncos, they haven’t looked special, though facing the Cincinnati defense should help. Expect both offenses to put on a show, take the over on 44.5 total points and Bengals to cover a large spread.Last week’s pick: Chiefs -5.5 at Giants (line closed Chiefs -5.5). Chiefs won, 22-9.

Tennessee Titans-Houston Texans total points UNDER 39.5 (-115)

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Pamela Maldonado: Titans at Texans feels like one of those AFC South games where you blink and it’s already the fourth quarter with the scores still stuck in the teens. Tennessee hasn’t cracked 20 all season, Cam Ward is sitting at 5 yards per pass attempt, and that offensive line has already allowed 15 sacks. Houston hasn’t scored much, either, living on field goals and stalled drives. Both defenses bend but don’t fully break, and both offenses have been allergic to finishing in the red zone. It sets up for punts, field goals and an under that feels like the right side.Last week’s pick: Texans-Jaguars under 44.5 (closed 42.5). Jaguars won, 17-10.

Mason Graham to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1600)

Seth Walder: Graham burst onto the scene in Week 3, posting a 43% pass rush win rate (along with half a sack) in the Cleveland Browns’ upset win over the Packers. That was the highest PRWR game by a defensive tackle in over a year! Meanwhile, Abdul Carter, the heavy favorite for the award (+210), has a 6% PRWR (well below average) along with 0.5 sacks and has been playing a decent chunk of his snaps at off-ball linebacker. Graham’s performance announced him as a true contender for this award, and I think a few weeks from now we’ll consider 16-1 on him the glory days.Last week’s pick: Bears -1.5 vs. Cowboys (line closed Bears -1.5). Bears won, 31-14.