Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
David Peterson turned 30 years old earlier this month, yet he’s the veteran presence in the New York Mets rotation. Leaders must step up in big games, and the Mets are hanging onto a slim lead for the final NL Wild Card when they face the San Diego Padres, currently slated to be the second NL Wild Card. Peterson seemingly struggled a bit during the second half, but he’s still managed 55 strikeouts while surrendering only three homers in 53 1/3 innings since the break. His .355 BABIP and 63.8% left on base mark bloated his ERA to 5.23 in this span, almost two runs higher than its estimators. The Padres don’t fan much against left-handers, but they sport one of the least potent lineups facing southpaws.
Nine of Brady Singer’s last 11 outings have been quality starts, including his last six. Over this span, his ERA is a crisp 3.36 with a 1.05 WHIP, fully supported by a 26.5% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate. The Cincinnati Reds have a road date with the St. Louis Cardinals, so Singer benefits from working in a more favorable venue than his home park, as well as facing a lineup with the fourth-lowest wOBA and fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers over the past month.
Lucas Giolito hasn’t pitched as well as his 2.93 ERA over his last 10 games suggests, but the Boston Red Sox have won seven of those contests. They’ll be favored at home against the Athletics and Mason Barnett, one of the lowest-rated starters on Wednesday’s slate. The Athletics rely on home runs, and Giolito has been susceptible to the long ball. That said, Fenway Park embellishes runs while suppressing homers and Giolito has kept the ball in the yard at home. Plus, the crisper September evenings reduce fly ball carry.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Cole Ragans is slated for only three starts the rest of the regular season after returning from a lengthy IL visit. It’s tempting to use him in his first one back when the Kansas City Royals host the Seattle Mariners, but the lefty will likely be held to a conservative pitch count, perhaps falling short of five innings. The safe play is being patient, and perhaps unleashing Ragans for his double-dip next week.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Betting tips
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Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day’s games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.
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