After more than a decade of waiting, we are finally on the cusp of a true best-on-best international hockey tournament. The NHL is going to the Olympics!
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Outside of injuries, everyone will get to see the world’s best hockey players (aside from the Russians) compete for Olympic gold. Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Mikko Rantanen, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak have all been superstars in the NHL for the better part of 10 years, and none of them have played in the Olympics. That changes in the next fortnight.
Every athlete is fulfilling a childhood dream, regardless of how good their team is. Every player is excited to represent their country, and every country in the Olympic tournament has its own story. There are plenty of storylines — from leading goal scorers left off rosters to teams that have no NHL talent at all.
There are also X factors, regardless of whether the team is a contender for gold or wanting to prove it can keep up with the others. Here’s a rundown of those X factors — one from each team — starting with the tournament long shots and going all the way to the juggernauts.
Italy
X factor: Home soil
Italy deliberately chose not to go after players with more NHL experience, instead opting for more familiar players. It wouldn’t be the first time a team has drastically overperformed on home soil on the back of an incredible atmosphere. If Italian fans can bring their soccer supporter atmosphere to the hockey arena, they will provide a boost to their countrymen.
The Italians are short on talent, but not on camaraderie or support. Could the Italians put a scare into Slovakia or Germany? With outstanding goaltending and some luck, they just might. The X factor is the crowd and the team’s belief in itself. Though a run to a medal is unlikely, competitive games on home soil will only further crowd support and the belief that an upset is possible.
France
X factor: The Fountain of Youth
The French have one current NHL player on their roster. Perhaps their most important player is the man with 700 NHL games and two Stanley Cup Final appearances to his name: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.
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Turning 41 at the beginning of March, Bellemare finding the Fountain of Youth would be a major development for France.
The French are not expected to make much noise, but Bellemare getting any level of playing time with Alexandre Texier could reignite the grizzled veteran. Bellemare will undoubtedly be France’s go-to player for key faceoffs, and he will be their top penalty killer and a net-front presence on the power play. He has never been an offensive dynamo but remained a reliable defensive player throughout his NHL career. He’ll be relied upon to make life difficult for David Pastrnak, Kevin Fiala and Connor McDavid in the preliminary round.
France is in a tough spot, but Bellemare doing an admirable job in his role would go a long way toward keeping games close.
Latvia
X factor: Goaltending
Latvia has three quality goaltenders, including a goaltender with high-level performance at the Olympics in Kristers Gudlevskis. Both Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs have NHL experience, and Silovs won the AHL Calder Cup last season as the Abbotsford Canucks’ starter.
Both North American-based goaltenders are likely to be called upon to backstop Latvia in the preliminary round. The team in front of them is likely to give up scoring chances and a high volume of shots, meaning the goaltenders will be relied upon to provide stability and keep Latvia within striking distance.
If the goaltending can catch lightning in a bottle, they can put a scare into teams in the quarterfinals. The Latvians have been performing well at the junior level, and though the Olympics are a different animal, their national spirit and ability to stay in games because of goaltending and pesky play style could lead them to an upset or two.
Denmark
X factor: Scoring wingers
We all know Frederik Andersen is going to be the guy in goal, and frankly, Denmark should have the best goaltender in every preliminary game except for the matchup against the United States. If Andersen plays well, it will go a long way toward Denmark making it out of the group. However, Denmark’s X factor is its scoring wingers. Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand will play in every key situation for the Danes, and both are capable of driving play and scoring.
Ehlers has the speed, skill and vision to create scoring opportunities off the rush and the cycle, and he should be the key setup man on the power play. Bjorkstrand should be the key marksman, and he will need to score at even strength and on the power play.
Both players will have elevated roles compared to what they do on their NHL teams, and they will be relied upon to create offense. If Andersen can keep the games close, Ehlers and Bjorkstrand can beat goaltenders with their shots, and their ability to produce offense could be the reason Denmark does or does not make it out of the preliminaries.
Slovakia
X factor: The kids
Slovakia has three young standouts who will surely be the core of its Olympic roster for years to come.
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Simon Nemec, Juraj Slafkovsky and Dalibor Dvorsky are brimming with talent, and each of them possesses a difference-making ability. Slovakia’s best players are the young players who will play a bigger role than they do for their NHL clubs.
If any games get to overtime, the smart money would be on Nemec, 21, who has already scored multiple overtime winners at 3-on-3 in the NHL. He is a game breaker on the back end who will figure prominently in Slovakia’s top four, and he needs to be at his best against tougher opponents.
Slafkovsky, 21, has found his game as a power forward in the NHL and has been excellent for Slovakia in international play. His two-way ability and willingness to use his body to lean on opponents in the name of creating offense should make him a difference-maker. If Slovakia is going to make a run in the Olympics, Slafkovsky and Nemec will need to provide reliable defensive play and facilitate offense.
Dvorsky, 20, is the least known of the three, but he has a plethora of one-on-one skills and a shot that can beat goaltenders. Dvorsky is also a shootout option, which is important in Olympic competition. Should the need arise, Dvorksy is someone Slovakia should tap for the opportunity. Slovakia’s success at the Olympics is likely to be directly tied to the performance of the country’s young stars.
Germany
X factor: The Hart Trophy candidate
One of the biggest hallmarks of a team that can make some noise is a true superstar. That, and some goaltending. Lucky for the Germans, they have that superstar. Leon Draisaitl is one of the top five players on the planet, and he’s probably not No. 5. In a tie game, regardless of opponent, he is a scoring threat. He has the ability to go end to end and make the world’s best defenders look pedestrian. He does it quite often while playing for the Edmonton Oilers.
Draisaitl is undoubtedly the most important player for the Germans. Along with Tim Stutzle, he is expected to play major minutes and produce the lion’s share of the offense. Draisaitl is not only a fantastic facilitator of offense, but he’s also excellent defensively. It should surprise no one if he plays more than 25 minutes in every game. He can be the difference-maker against Latvia and Denmark, where he will be the best player on the ice, and if the Germans get good goaltending, he gives them a chance against the United States in a game-breaking scenario.
If Draisaitl is at his very best, the Germans can beat some of the superpowers of the sport; the key will be managing his minutes to ensure he remains at his peak for the duration of the tournament.
Switzerland
X factor: The Devils
It is no secret that the New Jersey Devils haven’t had the season they intended to, and three Devils will be hoping to propel Switzerland to a medal. Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and Jonas Siegenthaler play a major role for the Devils, and they will need to drive play for Switzerland too.
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Siegenthaler is going to play a major defensive role, likely to be tasked with major minutes behind Roman Josi. Siegenthaler’s ability to kill penalties and match up against some of the best players in the world will be vitally important to Switzerland’s chances.
Up front, Hischier has a Selke Trophy-level reputation, and though that has not been the case this season, playing for one’s country tends to elevate your willingness to go the extra mile. Hischier will undoubtedly draw the toughest matchups, play on both special teams and be expected to mitigate the offensive outputs of opponents. He will be the key faceoff man, an area in which he will need to excel for Switzerland to execute faceoff plays in the offensive zone to set up Meier and Kevin Fiala.
Meier is a power forward who has been good while wearing Swiss colors. His ability to power through defensive coverage and create time and space for teammates will be critical to creating the offense required to win games as the tournament moves along.
If the three Devils players are at their best, Switzerland is going to be a tough out. If they are not, Switzerland will struggle against Canada and the Czechs.
Czechia
X factor: Lukas Dostal
Earlier this season, Dostal was firmly in the Vezina Trophy conversation. Though recent play has decreased that likelihood, perhaps no goaltender is more prepared for his Olympics role than he is.
The Anaheim Ducks play a run-and-gun style, trying to outscore their opponents while bleeding scoring chances. Czechia is better defensively than the Ducks, but the Czechs will need that elite goaltending performance to withstand the onslaught of scoring chances that are likely to be generated by opponents as the medal round begins.
Dostal may never get his chance if Czechia decides to use Dan Vladar or Karel Vejmelka as the starter, but Dostal has the highest ceiling of the three. He’s most capable of being a difference-maker for the Czechs and has the best high-danger scoring chance save percentage among the goalies on the team. If he plays to that level and the Czechs put their eggs in his basket, he can backstop them to a medal. If he never gets his chance, the Czechs could be looking at a quarterfinal exit.
Finland
X factor: Juuse Saros
Finland faces an uphill climb to contend for gold without its best player, Aleksander Barkov. Finland does have the luxury of depth, and will still have Sebastian Aho, Roope Hintz and Anton Lundell as the top three centers.
Historically, Finland has played staunch defense as a unit and been the beneficiary of excellent goaltending. Saros is Finland’s most talented goaltender and, at his best, can steal games; his best is among the best in the world.
Behind a capable defensive unit like Finland’s, Saros can be a difference-maker. When he’s not on, Finland has shown they will go to another option. But Saros is in that small group of goaltenders with the talent to be named Best Goaltender in a best-on-best tournament. This will be the most skilled team Finland has brought to the Olympics, but the defensive game will not suffer for it. If their goaltender can be their backbone, Finland should be considered a medal contender.
Sweden
X factor: Elias Pettersson
Injuries have hit the Swedes hard, and their depth is being severely tested. There is no time like the present for Pettersson to step up for his country.
He hasn’t been the same player for almost 1½ years, but he would not be the first Swede to thrive while wearing the Tre Kronor. At his best, Pettersson is a power-play dynamo, and a reliable two-way center that can make a difference. He still has the talent to beat goalies clean from various areas of the offensive zone. If he can do that, that’s significant for the Swedes, especially given who won’t be playing.
Part of being an X factor is that it is not a foregone conclusion. It is a case of “if it happens, it will significantly boost the team’s possibility of succeeding.” That is the reality with Pettersson. Sweden knows what they’re getting from William Nylander, Joel Eriksson Ek, Filip Forsberg and Mika Zibanejad. If Pettersson doesn’t find his form, Sweden’s injuries could set them back on their quest. The reality of Sweden’s depth is Pettersson finding his old form, which would provide a significant boost for Sweden, one likely needed to contend for gold.
United States
X factor: The goaltending
The answer here could be “leadership,” given some of the roster decisions. And because of those puzzling decisions, the Americans are going to need their goaltenders to be at their best after leaving some of their best goal scorers at home. Looking specifically at you, Cole Caufield and Jason Robertson.
Without question, the Americans have the best collection of goaltenders at the Olympics. Whether it is Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger or Jeremy Swayman in goal, it will need to be Vezina-caliber goaltending to win gold. With their roster construction, the Americans are planning to play low-scoring, tight games. To have success with that plan, the goaltending can be nothing less than stellar.
All three goaltenders have had their ups and downs. When they perform well, they are Vezina level — and Hart Trophy level in the case of Hellebuyck last season — and capable of backstopping their teams to the gold medal. When they are having an off night, it isn’t pretty.
That makes this trio the ultimate X factor in the tournament. Simply put, those three men are the difference between a gold medal and not making the gold medal game at all. In a country that has been locked in on beating Canada in a best-on-best tournament, those three will determine the direction of the discourse through the next Olympics cycle. To that end, they are the very definition of an X factor.
Canada
X factor: The cream of the crop
When a country has the ability to leave the likes of Connor Bedard and Evan Bouchard at home, you know it has some serious depth. While those decisions raised more than a few eyebrows, Canada is likely to have Selke-caliber talent on the fourth line, a luxury no other country will have.
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But that is not what has separated them from the pack. Canada may be deeper, but Canada’s best players, at the peak of their powers, are still the best in the world. Sidney Crosby was at the peak of his powers in 2014 when Canada won gold, his second. Now, he’s still one of Canada’s best, but he’s aided by Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid and Cale Makar, who are at the peak of their powers in 2026.
Other countries have produced elite talent, and the NHL has never had more nations represented at the top than it does now. But, when McDavid and MacKinnon are at their best, there is not a player on the planet who is better. If they are at their best, as they were in key moments at the 4 Nations Face-Off, Canada will be hard to stop. They’ve scored big goals, made big plays and overpowered opponents in key moments.
Crosby scored the Golden Goal in 2010, and Carey Price posted a .972 save percentage in 2014. For Canada to win gold in 2026, the superstars will need to continue their run of dominant play on the Olympic stage.
It should be noted that goaltender Jordan Binnington would have been listed as Canada’s X factor if his play merited that he would be Canada’s starting goaltender at the Milan Cortina Games. At his best, you get the 4 Nations Face-Off final performance. When not at his best (which is where he is now), he does not belong on the Olympic team at all. If Canada opts to go with him despite the warning signs, it must hope he finds his form, or he will be the X factor — in all the wrong ways.
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