Women’s NCAA Tournament top 16 reveal: JuJu Watkins and USC move up, Dawn Staley’s South Carolina falls

The selection committee for the women’s NCAA Tournament revealed its top 16 seed projections for the second and final time this season on Thursday night, just before tip-off of a rivalry clash between North Carolina and Duke.

Both the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels remained in the committee’s top 16 and so did nearby Tobacco Road rival N.C. State. Should the rankings hold, it would mark the first time since 1998 that all three schools in North Carolina’s Research Triangle hosted NCAA Tournament games during the opening weekend. That — coupled with first-and-second round men’s games being held at Raleigh’s Lenovo Center — would make the region the center of college basketball in mid-March.

Elsewhere in the top 16 reveal, there was shakeup at the top. The USC Trojans, buoyed by an upset win over rival UCLA, moved to the 1-line. Meanwhile, South Carolina, hindered by a lopsided home loss to UConn, fell to the 2-line. Should these projections come to fruition, it would mark the first time since the 2018-19 tournament that Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks weren’t a No. 1 seed.

Here’s the full top 16 reveal:

UCLA
Texas
USC
Notre Dame
South Carolina
UConn
LSU
NC State
TCU
UNC
Duke
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Kansas State
Ohio State

Winner: USC

The Trojans were a No. 1 seed last year as well and find themselves back on the top line with just one regular season game to play, on Saturday at rival UCLA. The stakes for that game are now even higher, because a USC win could knock the Bruins off the mark for the No. 1 overall seed. Of course, USC and UCLA could meet for a third time in the Big Ten Tournament.

If USC remains on the 1-line, it will mark the first time since the 1983 and 1984 seasons that it has been a No. 1 seed in back-to-back years. Those Trojans — led by Cheryl Miller — won two consecutive NCAA championships.

Loser: South Carolina

While the Gamecocks and their SEC counterparts in the Texas Longhorns are the only two teams in the country with 11 wins in Quad 1 games, the selection committee was apparently disappointed by Staley’s team getting boat-raced at home by UConn, 87-58, on Feb. 16.

The good news for South Carolina is that they have plenty of opportunities to make up this ground. They’ll play Kentucky — 14th in the latest reveal — on Sunday and could face a handful of top 16 teams in the SEC Tournament in Greenville, S.C., which begins next week.

Winner: Tennessee, and the SEC

After not hosting opening weekend games last season in Kellie Harper’s final year at the helm, the Lady Vols are in a good position to bring NCAA Tournament games back to Knoxville this year. From the first top 16 reveal to Thursday’s projection, Tennessee was the biggest riser, jumping up four spots from 16th to 12th. Kim Caldwell’s team has won three games since that first reveal, including a victory over AP-ranked Alabama.

Overall, the SEC looks like the most top-heavy conference with six teams in the top 16. The ACC has four, the Big Ten has three, the Big 12 has two, and the Big East has one in the UConn Huskies.

Ohio State and Kansas State seem to be the most in-danger of falling out. The Wildcats have lost twice since the last top 16 reveal and fell three spots, while Ohio State is 16th after losing to unranked Indiana. Any more slip-ups from the Buckeyes and Kansas State could cost them homecourt advantage in the opening round.