You know what didn’t happen while the Braves racked up a meaningless ten-game winning streak late in the season? Any one-run losses. You know what did snap said winning streak? A one-run loss. The Braves hit three homers, but also allowed three homers, making a first-inning run aided by a bloop single that Jurickson Profar probably should’ve caught in left field the difference and the thing preventing the Braves from going to 11.
Bryce Elder got the ball in this one for his final start of 2025, and, well, this start was basically emblematic of why Elder continues to get run in this organization, but also why that’s not unequivocally a good thing. Elder did something he’s done quite often over the last two seasons at the big league level: post great peripherals, but get torched by homers in a way that makes it hard for his team to win the game. In this one, he surrendered two of the three hit by the Nats, giving him a 25 percent HR/FB in the game, and pushing his seasonal HR/FB back north of 16 percent. On the flip side, he had a 7/0 K/BB ratio over seven frames. Over the last few months, Elder has had really successful starts in part because he didn’t get mauled by HR/FB, but that’s not what happened here, and thus the streak ends.
Perhaps also fittingly beyond the one-run-loss-ness of it all, the Braves also lost this game despite hitting three homers, because, say it with me: this team apparently can’t really score runs except via homer, so any top-down strategy to attempt to trade homers for other types of offense was doomed to fail from the start. Facing off against rookie Andrew Alvarez, the Braves got two on in the second and a leadoff walk in the fourth, but came up empty. Two of the first three reached against Alvarez in the fifth, prompting him to go 18-and-out in favor of Mitchell Parker, who them promptly walked Profar to load the bases. The Braves were down 2-0 at the time, and this was a promising situation with Matt Olson and Ronald Acuña Jr. due up, but the former struck out and the latter bounced out.
Drake Baldwin took Julian Fernandez deep to start the sixth to make it a 3-1 game, but the real drama-slash-sadness happened in the seventh against Chase Beeter, who began the inning with two walks. That brought up Olson, who fell behind 0-2 (including taking a meaty first strike), worked it back full, and then struck out on a low slider. Acuña followed, took a hanging slider, took a pitch that moved the tying run into scoring position, but also ultimately struck out on a weird frisbeeing slider at the top edge of the zone. Baldwin could’ve been the hero here, but he too struck out on an even worse-located, higher slider.
Marcell Ozuna hit a homer in the eighth off Jackson Rutledge, and Eli White, pinch-hitting, greeted Jose Ferrer with a first-pitch dinger to center field to make it a one-run game. However, Ferrer then struck out Profar and Olson, bringing Acuña to the plate. The game then concluded on a really weird sequence where both Acuña and Baldwin hit weak grounders that resulted in close plays at first base. The first base umpire ruled Acuña out, but replay showed he was safe; he then ruled Baldwin safe, but replayed showed he was out. Neither of these were that close, so it was an awkward moment for CB Bucknor in a career full of them, but in the end, that was the game.
The damage against Elder came sporadically. In the first, CJ Abrams had a barreled double, and then Josh Bell lifted what should’ve been a routine fly to left, that somehow dropped because while Profar hasn’t had too many defensive failings lately, he’s still not a good defensive outfielder or anything close. Elder then decided to throw three four-seam fastballs in a row to Daylen Lile, all were poorly located, and the third got hit into center to drive in Abrams. Elder then cruised for a bunch of batters, until another poorly-located fastball resulted in a Josh Bell no-doubter to center. In the sixth, Elder threw a meaty 2-0 sinker to James Wood, and, well, you guessed it: another homer. Basically, after the first, Elder allowed more homers (two) than non-homer baserunners (one).
In the eighth, Wood had an almost-identical sequence against Tyler Kinley as he had against Elder two innings prior: a 2-0 count, a mislocated and hanging slider, and another monstrous homer. Kinley struck out two in his inning (HR/FB monster, raaagh) and then Pierce Johnson had a silly outing with four balls in play, going for two singles, a double play ball, and a sliding catch by Acuña.
The Braves will now “enjoy” their final off-day of the season before the Big Off-Day comes at the end of this week.
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