The Atlanta Braves are headed to The City of Angels to face off against the Dodgers after a day of rest. As it turns out, there could not be a better time in the schedule to play this series. The Braves are slotted to use their top half of their rotation, while the Dodgers will go with the bottom half of theirs.
Both teams have had injury issues with their rotations, but both have kept on winning. This series will be the biggest test yet for the Atlanta Braves that have been winning the games that they are supposed to. This will be the first series in quite some time that the Braves will be the underdog, which is always fun to see how teams respond.
The game one matchup tonight will feature Chris Sale against Emmet Sheehan, and in terms of ERA these two pitchers are having very different seasons. Sale is once again starting off strong with a 2.14 ERA and Sheehan is struggling with a 5.23. The season is still young, so the sample sizes are small, but this pitching matchup should make for the one game in the series that the Braves have the best odds of winning.
Chris Sale’s season has been no fluke. He did have the forgettable start on April sixth when he surrendered six runs, but that makes the rest of his work much more impressive. It is crazy to think that a pitcher, this early in the season, could surrender six runs in a 4.0 inning start, yet still own an ERA of 2.14 in the first half of May. Outside of that start with six ERs, Sale has pitched at least six innings in every other start and has not surrendered more than one earned run in any of them. Sale is also trending in the right direction. In his last three starts he is averaging 6.2 innings, 3.0 hits, 0.7 earned runs, 2.0 walks, and 9.0 strikeouts. Those are Cy Young front runner numbers almost every year. The one caveat is that he pitched those three games against the Phillies twice and then the Rockies.
Believe it or not, Chris Sale has not faced the Dodgers’ hitters that often. Outside of Teoscar Hernández that has faced Sale eighteen times, no other Dodger has faced him more in than nine at-bats.
Ironically enough, the player who has had the most success against Sale is former Braves hero, Freddie Freeman. Freeman has nine at-bats against Sale and currently holds a .333 average and 1.222 OPS with a HR. Hernández has an OPS of .818 against him, but no one else has an OPS above .708. Not even world superstar Shohei Ohtani.
The Braves will be facing Emmet Sheehan who has been victim of some poor luck. His ERA is much higher than his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.31. An xERA of 4.31 is not exactly elite, but it is much better than his surface numbers. What could be a recipe for success for the Braves is that Sheehan’s weakness is the Braves’ strength. Sheehan is in the top 25.0 percent of the league in strikeout and walk rates but struggles with giving up hard contact. Sheehan is currently at the bottom 36.0 percent in barrel percentage and bottom 42.0 percent in hard-hit rate. The Braves are currently third in MLB in barrels per plat appearance and eighth in hard-hit percentage. Fun side note, the Braves are first in MLB in batted balls (BBE), and second in MLB in balls hit 95.0 MPH or harder.
It should go without saying that in his young career Sheehan has not faced many of the Braves’ hitters many times. In fact, the last time he faced them was way back in 2023 before his season ending injury that kept him out all of 2024 as well. He has not faced any hitter on the Braves in more than five at-bats, and no player that was on the Braves in 2023 faced him more than twice. Ozzie Albies had two hits on him in that game.
The Atlanta Braves have a legitimate shot to win tonight but bring your coffee because the game does not start till 10:10 EDT.
Game Time: Friday, May 8th, 10:10 pm EDT
Location: UNIGLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA.
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
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