There’s been a whole lot of talk, both in the local media and from fans alike, about how the Cincinnati Reds need to go into yet another rebuild and try to win again at some point in the future rather than in the near-term as the 2026 season seems all but over before the All-Star break is even upon us.
There are a few issues with another rebuild, and the first is that anyone that the team can trade away right now who are close to free agency aren’t going to bring back much in trade that is likely to be a difference maker down the line. The players who will bring back the young, high-upside players you want to at least think of rebuilding for as guys who are under contract with the Reds for 3+ years – Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, etc. Trading someone under control to rebuild who is still going to be around in 2029 doesn’t make a ton of sense in 2026. You are basically saying that you don’t believe your rebuild will be ready in the next three plus years.
But another big part of the issue with a rebuild is that the farm system just isn’t that good right now. Baseball America just released their updated farm system rankings and they placed the Cincinnati system at #25 overall. That is significantly lower than every other organization within the division. The next closest team is the Chicago Cubs at #16. The Milwaukee Brewers, the best team in the division, also happen to have the best farm system in baseball according to Baseball America. St. Louis comes in at the #6 spot. To read the strengths and weaknesses for each system you will need a subscription, but if you have one or want to get one, here’s the link to the piece.
As an expert on the Reds farm system (did I just call myself that? Yes. But I think the claim holds up well under any scrutiny.) I will say that the farm system isn’t bare. But it’s also got some really concerning issues with it, too. Prospect player wise there are some guys in the upper levels who are either legitimate top prospects or at least guys who should be useful big leaguers. In the lower levels you have some guys with high potential who just haven’t really been around long enough to become guys you should feel comfortable saying in two or three years will not only be in the big leagues but productive in them.
But when it comes to pitching you get into a real head scratching situation. Cincinnati has had 14 pitchers make 10+ starts in the farm system this year in the minor leagues. Two of them have an ERA under 4.50. One of those guys is in the most pitcher friendly league in the minors (and in Single-A Daytona) with a 4.18 ERA and the other guy is 23-year-old Jose Acuna with a 3.40 ERA that has mostly come in Double-A, but has one Triple-A start under his belt this season. Neither guy is someone I would consider to be a “big stuff” guy, with Acuna averaging 91.7 MPH on his fastball in his one start with the Bats this season and Sheng-En Lin averaging 90.8 MPH this year.
The cupboard is very bare when it comes to starting pitching on the farm. When the year began there were eight pitchers in the Reds Top 25 Prospects. One of those guys was there on a technicality – Rhett Lowder. The others were Chase Petty, Julian Aguiar, Aaron Watson, Mason Morris, Sheng-En Lin, Jose Franco, and Zach Maxwell. Among the group I would argue that only Aaron Watson hasn’t had his stock fall in that time. Watson, last year’s 2nd round draft pick, has thrown 22.2 innings in his career and has never pitched in A-ball. Petty has essentially been moved to the bullpen, Maxwell continues to struggle to throw strikes, Lowder pitched poorly and is at least temporarily in the bullpen as a result…. you are getting the point.
Things are not looking great right now for Cincinnati. Not in the big leagues. Not on the farm.
