Here we are at the end of the line in my 3-part series (part one is here, and part two is here) of reflecting on 2025 and assessing where to go in 2026. The Cincinnati Reds won 83 games this year. 83 is not enough. If they want to be taken seriously, they need to win 90. And, as much as some people will groan when I say it, that’s not happening if they only promote from inside the organization.
But let’s start with what I won’t be writing about: I won’t be writing about the pitching staff. The Reds had one of the best pitching staffs in the game this year. The rotation is set with some capable backups for the inevitable injuries. Bullpens are as predictable as midwestern weather in March. The Reds bullpen is likely to be plenty good enough.
Getting better is not about pitching. It’s about hitting. Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl were the only full-season regulars who were above average as a hitters and are coming back next year.
And so this article is also not about the farm system. I know there are some Rece Hinds fans here. Might he end up as an interesting MLB player? Sure. Is a team that is serious about winning and coming off the kind of offensive year the Reds just had going to pencil him into a lineup spot? Nope. He is, at best, a bench guy. I checked in with Doug to make sure I wasn’t missing anyone. And I’m not. No one in the system has what the Reds need the most: Thump.
I get tired of hearing about it, and I bet plenty of you do, too, but the fact is that the Reds play in one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball. The Reds ranked 21st in MLB in home runs. That is unacceptable. The Reds have not had a 30-homer season since 2021. Who on the roster or in the organization right now could do it? None of us would be surprised if Elly De La Cruz dropped 30. Matt McLain did hit 28 in 2023 between Louisville and Cincinnati. Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer and maybe Noelvi Marte seem at least theoretically possible. But none of them feel like an actually good bet.
The Reds can’t go after guys like Austin Hays or Miguel Andujar hoping to get a bounce-back bargain. Their lineup is already filled with guys who need to bounce back or finish developing or whatever you want to call it. They have some good prospects who are probably a few years away. And there are teams with guys who could be rentals. Perhaps Taylor Ward or Brandon Lowe. But there are three big guys out there on the free agent market. Cincinnati should make a serious run at one of them.
Pete Alonso is opting out. He has only ever hit. And he hit 38 homers this year. He’s hit at least 34 every full season in the majors. He’ll be 31 next year.
Kyle Schwarber, you may have heard, is from Middletown. He even mentioned coming home. This season he hit 56 homers and he’s added a few more in the playoffs. He also hits 30+ every year. He’ll be 33 next year.
Eugenio Suarez just hit 49 homers. I believe you are all familiar with him. The Reds trading him away is maybe the biggest blunder the team has made in my lifetime (I am 45). He will be 34 next year.
All three of those guys are old enough that they aren’t without risk. But one way or another, it’s time for the Reds to take a risk. Time to fill the DH slot with someone who can actually hit. They’re all old enough that a contract won’t be super long, but it’s going to cost $25M+ per year.
I say do it. Better that than some combination of Austin Hays and Jeimer Candelario and whoever else. You can only field nine hitters at a time. Shuffle around Hays and Steer and Lux and Fraley however you want. It amounts to the same thing: not good enough for the playoffs.
So there you go. That is my grand plan for acquisitions. Spend money. Enough is coming off the books that they can do it. One big splash and hope. Because the Reds still need McLain and Marte and Steer and Hayes to hit better. And they need Stewart to hit for a whole season. All of those things happening at once is pretty unlikely. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the six likely regulars next year with multiple seasons of at least 300 plate appearances along with their career highs and lows in wRC+ (again, minimum 300 plate appearances).
Player
Career High
Career Low
De La Cruz
119
85
Friedl
117
90
Steer
118
97
McLain
129
77
Stephenson
113
85
Hayes
101
60
Add Sal Stewart and Noelvi Marte to that list and cross your fingers that they pan out because the Reds need at least four of the six players in the table to be closer to their best than their worst next year. And they STILL need another bat.
Just to be extra, extra clear, positions matter. First, left, right, and DH are places where guys have to hit. I beg you not to look at MLB averages, which include random disasters when someone gets hurt. Look at guys who are the primary players at these spots. Here is the Reds lineup right now along with how the bat plays at the position:
C – Tyler Stephenson/Jose Trevino (solid bat/no bat)1B – Sal Stewart (maybe a good bat)2B – Matt McLain (we are all guessing here)SS – Elly De La Cruz (good bat)3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes (bad bat)LF – Spencer Steer (mediocre bat for LF)CF – TJ Friedl (solid bat)RF – Noelvi Marte (we are all guessing here)DH – Gavin Lux, I guess, which would be a joke, frankly.
Among players with at least 400 plate appearances whose primary position was first base, the 15th best hitter had a wRC+ of 119. At DH, 15th was 118. In left, it was 114. In right is was 110. Those players are middle of the pack and no one the Reds ran out to those spots this year could even think about hanging in that very, very average territory (with the possible exception of Sal Stewart, but he only had 58 plate appearances, so let’s not anoint him yet). THAT is why the offense was bad this year. Though I wish they’d both hit better, you can live with low-bat, great glove guys at second and third. But first, left, right, and DH have to hit.
And it’s where the Reds have to decide to improve for next year. And they are going to have to do it from outside the organization if they want to be taken seriously.
The. End.
