Jake Woodford’s Outlier Traits | DRaysBay

Earlier this offseason, the Rays signed RHP Jake Woodford to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. He has bounced around several teams over the last six seasons, throwing over 250 innings with a career ERA and FIP that both flirt with 5.00. On the surface, there’s little reason for excitement. But beneath those numbers are a couple of traits that stand out in ways the Rays tend to value, even if Woodford’s results haven’t yet been noteworthy. No doubt the Rays believe Woodford’s tools can be better optimized for success.

Woodford’s changeup shape provides a unique look to hitters. Below is a graph of how its vertical and horizontal break compared to other offspeed pitches in the majors last year:

We can see that it has significantly less ride and run than the average offspeed pitch, and this remains true when we account for arm angle and limit the pool to low slot pitchers in the 15-35 degree arm angle range (Woodford sits around 25 degrees):

Even with the adjusted averages to account for arm angle, Woodford’s changeup stands out among the rest. He lands it both in-zone and for strikes at an above average clip, so it’s something that batters need to be ready to swing at. The grip almost looks like an old-school palmball style or maybe a circle change grip.

Hitters aren’t used to seeing an offspeed pitch with this movement profile and it should induce plenty of awkward swings and poor contact in a larger sample. Here’s a fun video of Fernando Tatis whiffing on a Woodford changeup, and then checking the video board wondering what he swung through:

The pitch dies under his barrel late, not fading arm-side, but almost dropping straight down.

Below is a graph of how Woodford’s four-seam shape compared to others in the major leagues last season:

We can see that it takes on a cut-sink sort of shape relative to the average four-seamer, and like his offspeed pitch, it remains an outlier even when accounting for arm angle:

Within his arm angle bucket (15-35 degrees), Woodford’s fastball has less horizontal break than 87% of other pitchers who throw a four-seamer from that same slot. The vertical movement isn’t anything that stands out, but the VAA on it is as flat as other outlier four-seamers thrown by Bryan Woo and Edwin Diaz thanks to Woodford’s low release height and above average extension. The movement profile resembles some of the flattest four-seamers in the league, though obviously not with the same velocity.

His two-seamer is more of a traditional shape for his slot but seems like a fine contact-management type of pitch or something he can land in-zone when he needs a strike. It’s still a unique part of his arsenal when considering how it pairs with his offspeed pitch; the difference in horizontal movement between the two pitches is greater than 7 inches on average. Only five other pitchers in the majors (Yu Darvish, Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Fernando Cruz, and Carmen Mlodzinski) could match that kind of shape differential between their two-seam and offspeed pitches last season.

Expect the Rays to refine and optimize Woodford’s approach to each side of the plate. He played in three different organizations last season — Cubs, Yankees, and Diamondbacks – all with their own coaches and philosophies. Woodford would likely benefit from the consistency and clarity the Rays are known for across their organization.

Woodford has a wide range of weapons he can throw to both righties and lefties, so he should be able to effectively navigate a lineup multiple times in an outing. His ability to throw both fastballs to the glove side and land his changeup for strikes gives him multiple ways to navigate opposite-handed hitters.

The contrast between a cut-sink four-seamer and a vertically dying changeup creates two very different movement planes, making it difficult for hitters to square both in the same at-bat. When hitters train against common movement patterns, deviation becomes a weapon. The question isn’t whether the shapes are interesting; it’s whether usage, sequencing, and execution can elevate them to major-league effectiveness. Without higher end velocity, Woodford’s ability to mix his pitches and lean into his uniqueness is critical to his success.

I’m looking forward to seeing his usage rates and role in Durham this season. His lack of option years might make it challenging to roster him for an extended period of time in the majors, but Woodford has the traits of a viable sixth starter or multi-inning reliever rather than just another name on the depth chart.