Outs On The Bases | DRaysBay

Let me be the 47th person to wish you a Happy New Year and welcome you to 2026. Like many of you, I spent some time reflecting on 2025 in the waning days of the year, and part of that reflection came to baseball. I found myself dissatisfied with how the 2025 season played out for the hometown nine because I remember the club sweeping the eventual American League champs late in May capped off with a 13-0 drumming on a Sunday afternoon. What happened to those guys?

Injuries are always something the team cannot control, and the season-long absence of Shane McClanahan, plus losing Jonathan Aranda, Josh Lowe, and Ha-Seong Kim for extended periods was one reason the team fell out of contention. When you use 56 players overall, chances are some of them are going to be below replacement level. It is somewhat ironic the recently departed Pete Fairbanks avoided the injured list and worked over 50 innings for the first time in his career.

Teams can’t control injuries, but they can control how many extra outs the defense gives away, or how many outs they make on the base paths. Today, we’ll focus on those base path outs.

All outs on the bases are not created equal. TOOTBLAN has been in baseball lexicon since 2008,* and the Rays certainly had several such instances in 2025. However, some outs on the bases are simply unfortunate outcomes on strategic decisions by the manager. We see these when runners are doubled up on a hit and run play foiled by a great defender, for example. We also often see the contact play put on, something Kevin Cash loves to do, only to see an infield squibbler cleanly fielded to nab the lead runner.

The Rays have traditionally been an aggressive running team, and Kevin Cash has historically encouraged the club to take chances on the base paths. Cash appears to have a product development mindset where product owners are often told, “Fail fast, succeed sooner,” because the Rays have been above the league average in both outs on the bases as well as outs at home each of the past four seasons.

Outs at home (a category that includes any out made on the bases, although here we are focused on the outs specifically at home plate) are defined by Baseball-Reference.com as, “any time a runner is put out making a baserunning play, such as being tagged out advancing on a fly ball, being thrown out trying to stretch a hit to another base, doubled off in a line drive, or tagged out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball. It does not include pickoffs, caught stealings, or force plays”

The table below shows how the Rays have done in the Kevin Cash area. The bolded/italicized numbers show instances when the team lead the league in that particular category:

The Rays were the second worst team in the league in making outs of the bases (59), but led the league in the number of these outs that came at home plate, with 26.

Those outs have to be the most frustrating for teams and their fans, so that’s where I’ll focus, using video and context to better understand why or how the club ran into more outs at home than any other club during the 2025 season. Perhaps we should have seen this coming considering that the season began with two such plays on the opening weekend.

Situation: 1st inning, two outs, runner on first, Christopher Morel on deck…and this happened:

This was quite a TOOTBLAN considering Caminero was not even three steps from third when Ezequiel Tovar was letting go of his relay throw. Perhaps he was shouting Leeroy Jenkins as he was rounding third and Grady Williams was too stunned to throw up a stop sign because it is not apparent Caminero ever had any intention of stopping.

Situation: 3rd inning, two outs, runners on first and second, Danny Jansen on deck…and this happened:

This was honestly a 50/50 play, but Nick Martini made a great on-target throw from right field and nailed Jonathan Aranda. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. Think about that for awhile.

Situation: Man on third, one out, Jake Mangum at the plate, Taylor Walls on deck…and this happened:

This was clearly a contact play, which is a very defensible call with Taylor Walls as the on-deck hitter. Mangum did his job, but the Angels did a better job and cut down Kam Misner at home.

Situation: Man on third, one out, Jake Mangum at the plate, Taylor Walls on deck…and this happened:

Two games later, Cash made the same strategic decision, and it almost worked. Christopher Morel was initially called safe but those meddling kids in the replay booth overturned the call on the field and Morel was ruled out. All is well that ends well though as Danny Jansen homered on the very next pitch and the Rays went on to win this game 6-3.

Situation: Bottom 5th, one out, man on third, Yandy Diaz on deck…and this happened:

Walls was yet again involved, but was at the plate this time and the contact play failed once Paul Goldschmidt cleanly fielded the ball and the Yankees ran a textbook defensive maneuver to erase Jose Caballero on the bases. The score would stay 1-0 as the neither team scored the rest of the game.

Situation: Top 7th, Men on first and third, one out, Jonathan Aranda on deck..and this happened:

This is another 50/50 play which required a near-perfect peg from Fernando Tatis Jr to nab Jose Caballero. The Rays would later add an insurance run in the 8th to complete the three-game sweep of the Padres.

Situation: Top 4th, men on second and third, one out, Danny Jansen on deck…and this happened:

This was clearly a contact play, but Travis Jankowski hit it right to where Ernie Clement was standing, and Clement made a perfectly located throw home allowing Alejandro Kirk to tag Misner in time to prevent the run.

Situation: Top 2nd, men on second and third, one out, Josh Lowe on deck…and this happened:

It is tough to see from that camera angle, but Nathan Lukes had that ball and was ready to throw home from medium depth in left field as Walls was touching third base. This, to me, is another TOOTBLAN because Brian Anderson saw it coming immediately and the throw beat Walls to the plate before he could even initiate his slide. We don’t know whether the club’s scouting report said run on Lukes every chance you get, but Lukes’s 82nd percentile arm strength and 96th percentle arm value at BaseballSavant says otherwise.

Situation: Top 9, Chandler Simpson on second, one out, Yandy Diaz on deck, up 4-0…and this happened:

This was a 50/50 play which added insult to injury. Simpson was thrown out on a fine throw by Kyle Stowers on an aggressive by defensible send by Brady Williams. Simpson is likely the only player who would have been sent on such a play, but with a 4-run lead in the 9th and your best hitter coming up, was it necessary? Simpson would miss the next game after his painful faceplant.

Situation: Bottom 5th, man on third, one out, Kam Misner on deck…and this happened:

Textbook contact play, and an extremely defensible one with the speedy Caballero on third. Additionally, the next three batters in the lineup were Misner, Curtis Mead, and Ben Rortvedt. Simpson just needs to aim better or chop it into the ground next time (sic).

Situation: Bottom 5th, Men on second and third, nobody out, Brandon Lowe on deck…and this happened (unable to embed video – click to watch):

Holy TOOTBLAN, Batman! Diaz perhaps thought the contact play was on up 9-0 in the 5th? Perhaps he was surprised Rortvedt was on base and simply forgot he was over on third base? This was in the aforementioned 13-0 game, so it was easy to laugh off then as it is now.

Situation: Bottom 8th, an on second base, two outs, Brandon Lowe on deck…and this happened:

TOOTBLANs on consecutive days as Christopher Morel apparently did not learn much from Rich Thompson back in 2012 and assumed an action on the field that led to him being thrown out. It was also a very smart play by Carlos Correa because he knew he had zero chance of throwing out Simpson on that play.

Situation: Bottom 5, man on third, one out, Jonathan Aranda on deck…and this happened:

Another obvious contact play using one of the best contact hitters on the roster. Brian Anderson raises an excellent point: is the contact play go on any contact or should the baserunner make a read? Lowe was clearly watching the contact from the replay, so his decision to go home was puzzling. He at least stayed in the rundown long enough to allow Diaz to get to second base and Diaz scored when Aranda drove him in with a single.

Situation: Top 5th, man on third, one out, Junior Caminero on deck…and this happened:

Something was in the water in late May as the Rays had eight outs at home from May 15th to this one on the 29th, and that does not even include the front end of a double-steal on May 27th when Aranda was thrown out at home with two outs. This instance in Houston was another contact play, in at the time, was a close game. The Rays later went on to score five runs in both the 7th and 8th innings turning this game into a laugher.

Situation: Bottom 7th, men on second and third, two outs, Taylor Walls on deck…and this happened:

You rarely see a runner attempt to advance home on a ball that does not leave the dirt, but it is touch not to blame Mangum for this TOOTBLAN with Mead at the plate and Walls on deck. Let’s be honest; it was likely his best chance at scoring in that situation.

Situation: Bottom 10th, man on third, one out, Jose Lowe on deck…and this happened:

What a case of batted ball misfortune on a called contact play. Caballero made good contact which hit the mound and deflected perfectly to former Ray Xavier Edwards who threw to future Ray Nick Fortes at home to prevent Misner from scoring the tying run. Lowe struck out in the next plate appearance to end the game.

Situation: Top 6th, man on third, one out, Junior Caminero on deck…and this happened:

The Rays were ahead 7-4 at this point in the contest as Diaz had just tripled off the right field wall to drive in Brandon Lowe. Diaz’s triple apparently exhausted all of his speed points because this pitch was very wild and far from the plate, and was still easily thrown out. You can see on the secondary replay Diaz made the immediate decision to attempt to score but what you cannot see is the trailer he is towing behind him. The club still went on to win this contest 8-4 despite Aranda and Caminero both striking out after this play at the plate.

Situation: Bottom 6th, men on second and third, one out, Danny Jansen on deck…and this happened:

Ramon Laureano is a notorious thorn in the side to the Rays over the years, both at the plate and in the field. Apparently, Aranda did not get that memo as he was two steps around third as Laureano was releasing the baseball and was as out as the day is long. This was done in a 8-8 tie game in the 6th, and to make matters worse, Caballero was thrown out stealing on the very next pitch. The club rallied to score four runs in the next frame off former Ray Andrew Kittredge to put the game away to survive one of the worst TOOTBLANs of the season by Aranda.

Situation: Bottom 8th, tie game, 2 outs, man on second, Jake Mangum on deck…and this happened:

Colby Thomas had just been called up to the roster that day, and made one of the best defensive plays of the season with an absolute sell-out of a throw that went precisely where it needed to be. We were robbed of a better view of the live play thanks to the shadow surrender cobra blocking the camera view.

Situation: Top 6th, men on first and third, one out, Jake Mangum on deck…and this happened:

What can you do? A second consecutive single-percentile outcome by the defense. This was a fantastic defensive play by the Red Sox to foil a contact play initiated by a bunt. This prevented the Rays from tying the game up and it would be the closest they came to scoring as nobody else even reached base over the final three frames of this 1-0 loss.

Situation: Bottom 5th, bases loaded, one out, Taylor Walls on deck…and this happened:

The Rays would go on to blow this lead and lose this game 11-9 and this moment in the game would immediately come back to haunt them as Kyle Teel homered on the second pitch he saw the next inning after he made this great recovery on a passed ball strikeout. It took that amazing recovery and throw to get this out, but one is left wondering as Walls did hit a double when he did come up the next inning off the same pitcher.

Situation: Top 7th, men on second and third with nobody out, Josh Lowe on deck…and this happened (unable to embed video – click here to watch):

This was a similar contact play to the one involving Josh Lowe earlier where the send was automatic and did not appear to involve a read of where the contact was going. The Rays failed to score in this inning as Lowe struck out and Mangum grounded out, but did add a run in the following inning and go on to win this game 4-2.

Situation: Top 9, men on second and third, nobody out, Yandy Diaz on deck…and this happened:

The contact play was on once again, but this appears to be another automatic send of the runners as both were immediately in motion. Once again, aim the ball better!

Situation: Bottom 7th, tie game, bases loaded, two outs, Chandler Simpson on deck…and this happened:

Williams was brought in to pinch hit for Tristan Gray in this situation, and saw three pitches before Mangum was either told to take advantage of the lefty on the mound or made his own judgement call, but he ran right into an out. The Rays would go onto lose this game 3-2 after the Guardians played small ball in the 9th to plate the winning run. As Brett Rutherford said in the game recap that evening,

Situation: Top 3rd, one out, men on first and third, Jake Mangum on deck…and this happened:

We have come full circle with Caminero making the first and last out at home for the club on the season. We can chalk this up as a contact play because Vladimir Guerrero Jr audibled from an attempted double-play to cutting down Caminero at home.

Nobody is perfect, but the Rays would have been right at league average had they not run into eight outs with questionable decisions and if half of those coinflip plays had broken their way. Reducing the self-inflicted wounds would be an obvious area of improvement for the club in 2026. Since these mistakes peaked in late May, as the perils of playing in the bay area heat started to kick into high gear, perhaps a return to 72 degree Trop air will help.

I trust this jog down memory lane through some frustrating moments of the 2025 season has not caused too much angst for you as you get into your 2026 fandom mindset.Maybe a look at 26 disappointing plays isn’t the best way to look forward to the 2026, but the good news is: the Rays are likely to get better in this category! I

*Thrown Out on the Bases Like a Nincompoop