Reds Risk and Reward: The Kyle Schwarber Conundrum

“I like dreamin’‘Cause dreamin’ can make you mine”

The saga of Middletown’s favorite son had all of us singing like Kenny Nolan, circa 1976. The knob on the Cincinnati Reds hot stove, normally stuck in the OFF position, turned ON for a brief moment and reached a sustained simmer as everyone awaited a full boil that, alas, never came.

The cold water thrown on the stove came in the form of the shift in the discipline Phil Castellini promised during his infamous Opening Day comments three years ago, forgotten, but still in play apparently. The Moustakas and Akiyama missteps along with the economic system of the game, which only became worse with Covid, then the collapse of Diamond Sports Group, gave birth to what is “The New Reds Way.”

We were explicitly told this long ago.

It’s important to recognize that the unfettered pursuit of Schwarber would always be a full retreat from a change in philosophy that eschews risk in favor of building almost strictly from within, adhering to a budget that asks for no further commitment from its stakeholders. Does anyone really believe ownership was now going to reverse course once again and head into a new direction after standing in front of the public and talking about “shifting the discipline,” and do it with a lockout on the horizon?

And yet, they almost did, or so we thought. Forget the nonsensical opinion based on fan disappointment that insists the Schwarber bid was never serious. If the only offer that’s considered serious was one that rivaled the Phillies’ successful offer, then those folks don’t know how baseball—and in particular, Dave Dombrowski—works.

The Philadelphia president’s history of working for big spending owners—Wayne Huizenga, John Henry, Mike Ilitch, and now John Middleton—has given him free reign to outbid whoever and whenever he sees fit. Philadelphia was never going to let their power hitter leave. Dombrowski waited to see what the market looked like and then pounced, knowing the Phillies’ window is NOW and as Phillies GM Preston Mattingly said the day Schwarber re-signed, “we have an owner that loves to spend some money.”

The Reds always had to know Middleton was prepared to spend “stupid money.” Philly watchers knew, too.

Writer Joe Sheehan weighed in on the Pirates four years/$120 million offer, calling it “arguably an overpay for the 33-year-old DH, who has one four-win season through age 32, last year, and two more three-win seasons in his career.”

Indeed, there was plenty of risk in committing to a $30M AAV multi-year deal to a player on the wrong side of 30. Having produced the best season of his career, there’s no guarantee Middletown’s favorite son will ever do that again. The Reds would have been paying an aging player for past performance which over-and-over again has proven to be high-risk, and do it knowing that a lost season in 2027 is a real possibility. Because while baseball stops, aging does not.

Sheehan also said this in his recent newsletter:

“It does seem harder for teams that are both low-revenue and low-success to entice free agents. That doesn’t bother me much. You would expect unsuccessful companies to struggle to attract talent in any walk of life. One of my objections to both player drafts and cap systems is they force players to work for some of the worst organizations in their chosen field, because they don’t have the freedom to sign with the best ones. Money is one way around this problem. We saw the A’s overpay for Luis Severino last year. The Tigers arguably did this with Javier Baez. The Pirates may have to do the same to get Schwarber.”

The late actor Albert Finney once played a great, but fading Shakespearean stage actor who told his supporting players, “the downstage lights are for me and me only. You must find what light you can.” The Reds now move in a different direction on the baseball stage, attempting to find what light they can before the curtain falls on this off season.

So, here we are again, onlookers standing at the roulette table, begging the players with the money to push all the chips in, betting red, despite all evidence to the contrary.

While the offer to Schwarber would suggest ownership was willing to budget far beyond the payroll limits Nick Krall keeps reiterating, one has to wonder what that offer actually was. Did it entail large amounts of deferred money? Did it mean the Reds were going to adhere to their “aligning payroll with resources” PHIL-osophy by trading away the salaries of Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson to compensate? How do you use the money offered to Schwarber to someone else without finding willing participant to agree to similar constraints? Would Pete Alonso have taken deferred ducats to sign with the Reds? Did his subsequent Oriole contract include that?

A competitive offer to Schwarber that means leaving the bullpen vulnerable and trading away pitching, whether a rotation guy like Brady Singer or Nick Lodolo, while counting on lots of roster health to mask a continued lack of depth is a recipe for disaster. The offense has been so poor that popular sentiment just wants to improve that side of the ledger, ignoring the reality of trading 3-2 losses for 8-7 losses.

Maybe Kyle Schwarber wanted to come home, but not at the expense of stripping down the roster and watching from the Reds season-ending September dugout as former teammates celebrated a division title in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Maybe it was none of that. Maybe more money just won the day as it usually does.

Schwarber explained all to the local media in Philly:

“Right after the season was over with, I was able to sit down with Dave (Dombrowski, president of baseball operations) and we had a really good conversation,” Schwarber said. “Then right before we went home, (owner) Mr. (John) Middleton was able to come over to our house and we were able to spend a really good amount of time just sitting down and talking about the Phillies and his family and about what’s the future looking like for us here.

“Those were conversations that I just never forgot. You go through a season, you start having different conversations with different teams. I took notes. And once I had everything all said and done I could really sit down and make the decision. John is committed to winning and Dave wants our organization to keep pushing for a World Championship. We want to continue to win the East. What else for a player can you ask for?”

All of this feels like it’s playing out exactly as ownership wants it to heading into a season that ends with a padlock on the end it. And if things go as expected, the players’ union is going to tell Phil Castellini and his small-market brethren, “let them eat cake.”

Because where else is Phil gonna go?