The Atlanta Braves have been one of the most active teams this offseason, and some could argue they have been the most improved team thus far. It could have been assumed that the Braves would go after bullpen help after not retaining Pierce Johnson and Tyler Kinley, not to mention Raisel Iglesias reaching free agency.
The Braves already filled two spots with Iglesias coming back and adding Robert Suarez. They are hoping Joe Jiménez will be able to come back strong and there are plenty of depth options. One player that if you look at his 2025 output that sticks out is Joel Payamps. He had a terrible 6.84 ERA in 26.1 innings last season, yet the Braves gave him a $2.25MM contract for this upcoming season. It is clearly a depth move, but there is a case to be made as to why this move made sense and why he should at least be given a shot to start the year.
Before this season, Payamps showed he had some real promise. From 2021-2024 his ERA ranged from 2.55 to 3.40. Even in his season of his ERA being 3.40, his expected ERA (xERA) was in the top 10.0 percent of MLB with a 2.96. In 2023 he had an exceptionally good year. He pitched a whopping 70.2 innings with a 2.55 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 26.8 percent strikeout rate, and 5.9 percent walk rate. To put this in perspective, his strikeout rate was in the top 25.0 percent of MLB, his walk rate was in the best 15.0 percent, and his xERA of 3.23 was in the best 13.0 percent. He was also in the top 9.0 percent in barrel percentage, and top 16.0 percent of hard-hit percentage.
We saw quite a drop-off in 2024 with his underlying metrics with his barrel percentage and hard-hit percentages taking nose dives. His 25.1 percent strikeout rate was still in the top 33.0 percent of qualified pitchers and his xERA of 4.08 was still palatable.
Of course, his past season was terrible, but there is reason to believe he can bounce back. First he had a terrible strand rate. Typically, pitchers will average a strand percentage rate in the low seventies. Payamps did not have a strand rate lower than 73.1 percent from 2021-2024. In 2025 he had a 60.4. The odds of that happening again are slim to none.
He also had bad batting average of balls in play (BABIP) luck this past season. BABIP by itself is not enough to blame on bad luck, but it is certainly a variable to consider. Other than his two-game cup of coffee in 2019, he never had a BABIP against him higher than .303. This past season he had a .346. A raised BABIP and a lowered strand rate will make any pitcher’s ERA skyrocket. Some positive regression to the mean with these two metrics will go a long way in increasing his overall on-field performance.
He also had some poor luck on his fastball. Even though his velocity remained steady, his effectiveness dropped. However, hitters seemed to have some luck. Hitters had an average of .359 against it, but their overall xBA was much lower at .246. It is the same story with actual slugging percentage versus xSLG against his 4-seamer as well.
Payamps has a four-pitch mix consisting of a 4-seam fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup (he threw a cutter twice in his entire career). This season saw his changeup usage drastically change. From 2021-2024 his usage of his changeup ranged from 7.7 percent in 2024 to 12.2 in 2023. For some reason, he all but abandoned it this past season, throwing it a measly 0.9 percent of the time.
It is safe to say with some pitchers that removing an off-speed pitch when they throw a 4-seam fastball over 30.0 percent of the time can result in the fastball not being as effective. This appears to be the case with Payamps. Factor in that he also throws in a sinker, and he throws a pitch in the fastball category over fifty percent of the time.
Payamps’ slider was not as good as it was in the past but was still decent with a batting average of .213 against it. If the Braves can get his changeup back in the mix, it may be able to add more effectiveness to his fastballs.
The Braves’ backend of the bullpen is already stacked, so Payamps would not need to be leaned on for high leverage situations. Bummer has had bad luck as well but has not been as effective as we would hope, Joey Wentz is a question mark, José Saurez has not worked out, and how Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder will be used is uncertain.
When we factor in the state of the Braves bullpen, Payamps’ solid history, his poor LOB and BABIP luck, and seeing that adding back a changeup could bring positive results, it makes a ton of sense as to why the Braves chose to give him the $2.25MM and he should be on the opening day roster.
It would not be shocking that he would be on a short leash, but $2.25MM is a small gamble to make for an arm with high upside. If the Braves get back the Brewers version of Payamps, this could be looked at as one of the best moves on the current roster in terms of return on investment.
