The weak SS market and why it matters for the Braves

There has been, and likely will be plenty more, talk about how the Atlanta Braves should handle shortstop for next season. Nick Allen had an elite glove, leading the league in many different defensive metrics across the season. However, his bat was so poor, it did not justify keeping him in the everyday lineup.

Ha-Seong Kim came in and made a difference right away. His bat was not elite by any means, but his slash line of .253/.316/.368 was much better than Allen’s .221/.284/.251. Kim is no slouch with his glove either. He has never ranked worse than the top 19.0 percent in Outs Above Average in his career.

Kim has a player option for next season at $16MM. Based on his history and how he performed, it can be assumed that many fans would like to see him back. He also just came off a major surgery which historically hurts a player’s market value. Considering all these different variables, there is no guarantee that Kim will exercise his option.

One factor that may play a huge role on if Kim exercises his player option is that we are coming up on a very weak shortstop free agent market. A weak market could incentivize him testing the market since he will likely be a top SS target. This is also a reason the Braves may want to make an offer to him early, rather than waiting to see what will happen.

We have been blessed as fans over the past few years to see some big names in the SS market. That is not the case this off-season.

Unless Trevor Story ops out of his two years and $55MM, Bo Bichette is really the only name that sticks out beyond Kim (should he not exercise his option). Story had a decent season this year with a 3.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 101, but he missed most of his previous two seasons. Odds are he takes the $55MM.

Outside of Story and Kim mentioned, let’s look at the other names according to MLB Trade Rumors with their fWAR from last year and games played in parenthesis:

-Tim Anderson (0.1 fWAR, 32 Games)

-Orlando Arcia (-0.6 fWAR, 76 Games)

-Willi Castro (0.5 fWAR, 120 Games)

-Isiah Kiner-Falefa (0.7 fWAR, 138 Games)

-Dylan Moore (-0.1 fWAR, 106 games)

-Kevin Newman (-0.7 fWAR, 57 games)

-Miguel Rojas (1.7 fWAR, 114 Games)

-Bo Bichette (3.8 fWAR, 139 Games).

Of note, Arcia and Newman both have cheap club options, but it is not like they will be highly sought after anyway.

As we can see, this is not exactly a SS free agent class that teams are drooling over. Many of these players played for multiple teams last season due to being let go from their previous team. Miguel Rojas had a decent season in comparison to the other players on the list, but he will be thirty-seven. Age is not historically good for the shortstop position.

Bichette had a very good bat last season with a 134 wRC+ and has a career 122, however his defense has taken a huge dip. His DRS (which is a comparison of other shortstops) was -12, one of the worst in MLB. He has a career -19 DRS. He also has a career negative Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Statcast shows him having a bottom 1.0 Outs Above Average (OAA) with a -13.

The point of saying all this is that there is a legitimate chance that Bichette may be moved to a different position should another team sign him.

If Story opts in to his contract, and Bichette is asked by interested teams to move to a different position, the free agent market outside of Kim does not look like the route to go. It is arguably the weakest it has been in several years. The trade market is always worth kicking the tires on, but the reality is that selling teams also know the free agent market is weak, and a good GM will leverage that.

When the Braves picked up Kim, they were already aware they likely were not making the postseason, so it does seem evident that they were trying him out for next season. He seems to have passed the test.

The Braves’ best options seem to be pretty clear. Trade for a starting SS, or offer Kim a deal as soon as they can rather than hope he exercises his option. Kim has a good case to test the market as he will likely be the top free agent SS based on our previous logic.