Betting markets suggest the upcoming 2025-26 men’s college basketball season may finish with a first-time national champion being crowned for the first time in nearly a decade. Updated odds ahead of the start of August — and with most rosters set across the country — give Purdue (+900) and Houston (+1000) the best and second-best odds to take the crown next spring in Indy, which would make them the first first-time champ (say that five times fast!) since Virginia in 2019 and just the fifth first-time champ since the turn of the century.
Purdue’s rise to frontrunner status is a new development after opening at +1400 in April — tied for the third-best odds with Louisville behind Duke (then +1000) and Houston (+1200). Houston’s odds have improved but remain second-best, while Duke’s odds have dropped to third-best and now sit at +1100.
Updated odds are at the bottom of the page and courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here’s a look at the current landscape and my takeaways of the betting landscape, how we got here, where the value lies and some longer shots that may be worth peeping.
Why Purdue is the betting favorite
Earlier-than-expected NCAA Tournament exits from Purdue in 2023 (as a No. 1 seed to a No. 16 seed), in the 2022 first round (as a No. 3 seed to a No. 15 seed in the Sweet 16) and 2021 (as a No. 4 seed to a No. 13 seed in the first round) continue to hover over the perception of this program’s ultimate ceiling. But that skepticism no longer reflects reality under coach Matt Painter. They were national runner-up in 2024 and lost to the eventual national runner-up by two points last season in a gutting Sweet 16 loss. They’re trending up.
Optimism is rampant in West Lafayette not only because of that proverbial tourney monkey is no longer on Purdue’s back, but because the band is largely back in place to run it back. They have two All-American candidates returning this season in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, an instant-impact transfer in Oscar Cluff, a finally-healthy Daniel Jacobsen and key cogs like Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox returning, too.
All told, the team’s top four scorers, top two rebounders and four leaders in assists are all in place as established vets on this team. Add in Jacobsen — a 7-foot-4 sophomore brimming with potential — and you have a team that has size, scoring and depth across multiple positions.
Duke trending downward, marginally
From +1000 to +1100 is hardly a difference in the betting markets from the time it opened in April to now. But it has taken Duke from the favorite to the third-best odds behind Purdue and Houston.
A lot has transpired since then — including Cedric Coward’s commitment and subsequent decommitment to pursue the NBA, Isaiah Evans’ return and the addition of Dame Sarr — but Duke has slid into potential value territory as the third team on the betting board.
Duke has five players I project as first-rounders for the 2026 draft, and that typically correlates with success. Having No. 3 recruit and projected No. 1 pick Cameron Boozer helps, of course. I’m pretty into Duke here at the price. I think there’s a non-zero chance Duke has the best player in college basketball next season and cruises to 30+ wins with ease.
Kentucky odds improve, Calipari’s odds decline
In the last three months, Kentucky has risen from +1800 to +1700 odds — while its former coach, John Calipari, who now coaches at Arkansas, has seen his team’s odds drop from +2000 to +3000.
Kentucky’s odds are tied for the fourth-best along with Florida and UConn and indicate a potential second-year breakout for coach Mark Pope. UK brings back star guard Otega Oweh and has a star-studded list of incoming transfers led by Jayden Quintance to help anchor lofty expectations.
Arkansas lost Boogie Fland to Florida in the transfer portal but has largely had a fantastic offseason otherwise, which makes that +3000 number pretty tasty. Calipari is enrolling two five-stars in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, and the Razorbacks are also adding FSU standout Malique Ewin and South Carolina big man Nick Pringle to bolster the team’s frontcourt.
The return of D.J. Wagner and Billy Richmond III also give the team some stability around which to build.
Best contender value: Houston
By my count there are six teams I’d place in the “contender” bucket right now who I think can realistically win it all. Houston would be No. 1 on that list. I think at +1000 they are a screaming value as the second team on the betting board. They are a bad break away from entering the season as reigning national champions, and coach Kelvin Sampson brings back Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler from a team that last season won 35 games. Oh, and: Chris Cenac Jr. — the highest-rated signee in school history — is also joining the fold.
Even in a deep Big 12, the Cougars are the class of the conference in their own tier. They are my preseason No. 1 and are my early pick to win it all.
Worst contender value: St. John’s
Do I think St. John’s can win the national championship next season? Yes.
Would I bet on it happening? Not at the current price. FanDuel’s odds for the Johnnies are currently +1900. That’s down from the initial opening odds of +1800 but still too rich for me. I’d prefer to bet Louisville (+2000), Kansas (+2000) or even Auburn (+2500) over St. John’s at current value.
Coach Rick Pitino is coming off an historic 31-5 season that ended in a second-round loss to Arkansas in the NCAA Tournament for a team that was hamstrung by offensive incapabilities. He has already said publicly that shooting — which was a problem — will not be one this season. But it’s hard to imagine it improves drastically from its standing last season, and it is equally hard to envision a path to similar dominance defensively. This is a team that should have +2500 or +3000 odds on paper. St. John’s is a good team, but not a great one as it is currently priced.
Best longshot: Oregon
Everyone has different criteria for what longshot means. I defined it as teams with +6000 odds or longer.
Using that criteria, Oregon for me is the team that screams off the page. Coach Dana Altman somehow coaxed Nate Bittle into returning over staying in the NBA Draft in something of a surprise. And his return is one of several meaningful ones, which also includes Jackson Shelstad, Kwame Evans Jr. and Jamari Phillips.
The Ducks are also bringing in former top-25 recruit Sean Stewart, sharpshooter TK Simpkins and Devon Pryor from the portal.
There is enough combined returning and new pieces here to think this team makes a leap from good (middle of the pack in the Big Ten and 25 wins on the season) to very good (top-third Big Ten team and challenging for 30 wins and a title) that makes me believe +8000 is real value. This is a borderline top-15 team on paper (Gary Parrish had them No. 17 in his latest Top 25 (And 1) rankings in June) being priced outside the top 25.
